Uprising

Emerging markets are big news. But after the financial crisis, what does the future really hold for them? And what does this future mean for global business?

George Magnus, one of the world's most respected economic analysts, is your guide through the challenges and opportunities for emerging markets and those doing business in them.

This magisterial book looks in detail at China and India – the big players – and also less hyped but crucial markets, including Eastern European countries and Turkey. Magnus takes in his sweep everything from commodity prices to climate change, and from comparative advantage to demographic to provide a compelling analysis of what the future might look like – not just for emerging markets, but for investors, businesses and economies everywhere.

Uprising is a must-read for anyone who cares about the future of the global economy.

Acknowledgments vii

Introduction 1

Chapter 1 Back to the Future? 27

Chapter 2 Who Are Those Guys? 55

Chapter 3 To Armageddon and Back 89

Chapter 4 Atomic Clouds of Footloose Funds 123

Chapter 5 After the Crisis: Catharsis or Chaos? 157

Chapter 6 Older and Wiser: Demographic and

Technological Challenges 205

Chapter 7 The Climate Change Catch–22 261

Chapter 8 Who Will Inherit the Earth? 299

Notes 341

Index 353

"... worth reading." (Survival, June 2011)

"... blow-by-blow account of the global scene today... his [Magnus's] crystal ball presents surprising conclusions." (BMI Voyager, April 2011)

"... a useful corrective to some of the more breathless and overenthusiastic tracts on China's inevitable path to world domination." (Management Today, November 2010)

"... Magnus takes an epic sweep of the emerging economies- from China and India to Turkey and Eastern Europe." (Wharf, November 2010)

"... a considered view of the advances of China, India and other emerging economies."??(Financial Times, November 2010)

"Magnus's overarching argument is that China still lacks the organisations and institutions that accept... the key to technological innovation." (Reuters.com, November 2010)

GEORGE MAGNUS is Senior Economic Adviser at UBS Investment Bank, London. Previously, he was Chief Economist at UBS; he has held similar positions with Union Bank of Switzerland and SG Warburg.

George Magnus is well-known and respected as a public commentator on the long-term consequences of the financial crisis. His first book The Age of Aging: How Demographics are Changing the Global Economy and Our World was published by Wiley in 2008. He lives, works and writes in London, is married and has four children.

Will the 21st century really belong to China?

Will emerging markets inherit the earth?

In Uprising, George Magnus gets behind the hype to show that the emerging markets century may not be all that it seems.

As well as dealing with the aftermath of the financial crisis, emerging markets must also attend to ageing populations, develop cultures of innovation, and figure out how to balance growth with a green economy.

Without urgent political and economic reform in China, India and other emerging nations, the US is likely to remain the prominent, even the dominant, global power for decades to come.

This analysis of why China and others may shape, but won’t ultimately shake the world, is iconoclastic and essential reading.