{"product_id":"understanding-uncertainty-isbn-9781118650127","title":"Understanding Uncertainty","description":"\u003cb\u003ePraise for the First Edition\u003c\/b\u003e  \u003cp\u003e\"...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.\"\u003cbr\u003e \u003ci\u003e—\u003cb\u003eJournal of Applied Statistics\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe critically acclaimed \u003ci\u003eFirst Edition\u003c\/i\u003e of \u003ci\u003eUnderstanding Uncertainty\u003c\/i\u003e provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFeaturing new material, the \u003ci\u003eRevised Edition\u003c\/i\u003e remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including:\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eA critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eA discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eA consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are not expressions of probability\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eApplications of the book’s thesis to statistics\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eA demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eUnderstanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition\u003c\/i\u003e is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003ePreface xi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrologue xiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1. Uncertainty 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1. Introduction 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2. Examples 2\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.3. Suppression of Uncertainty 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.4. The Removal of Uncertainty 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.5. The Uses of Uncertainty 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.6. The Calculus of Uncertainty 11\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.7. Beliefs 12\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.8. Decision Analysis 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2. Stylistic Questions 15\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1. Reason 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2. Unreason 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLiterature 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAdvertising 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolitics 18\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLaw 18\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTelevision 18\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3. Facts 19\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.4. Emotion 19\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.5. Prescriptive and Descriptive Approaches 20\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.6. Simplicity 22\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.7. Mathematics 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.8. Writing 25\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.9. Mathematics Tutorial 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3. Probability 30\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1. Measurement 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2. Randomness 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3. A Standard for Probability 34\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4. Probability 35\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.5. Coherence 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6. Belief 37\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.7. Complementary Event 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.8. Odds 40\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.9. Knowledge Base 43\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.10. Examples 44\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.11. Retrospect 46\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4. Two Events 47\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.1. Two Events 47\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2. Conditional Probability 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3. Independence 51\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4. Association 53\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.5. Examples 54\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.6. Supposition and Fact 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.7. Seeing and Doing 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5. The Rules of Probability 59\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1. Combinations of Events 59\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2. Addition Rule 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3. Multiplication Rule 62\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4. The Basic Rules 64\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5. Examples 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.6. Extension of the Conversation 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.7. Dutch Books 70\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.8. Scoring Rules 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.9. Logic Again 73\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.10. Decision Analysis 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.11. The Prisoners’ Dilemma 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.12. The Calculus and Reality 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6. Bayes Rule 79\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1. Transposed Conditionals 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2. Learning 81\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3. Bayes Rule 82\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4. Medical Diagnosis 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5. Odds Form of Bayes Rule 86\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.6. Forensic Evidence 88\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.7. Likelihood Ratio 89\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.8. Cromwell’s Rule 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.9. A Tale of Two Urns 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.10. Ravens 94\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.11. Diagnosis and Related Matters 97\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.12. Information 98\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7. Measuring Uncertainty 101\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1. Classical Form 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2. Frequency Data 103\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.3. Exchangeability 104\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4. Bernoulli Series 106\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5. De Finetti’s Result 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.6. Large Numbers 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.7. Belief and Frequency 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.8. Chance 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8. Three Events 117\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.1. The Rules of Probability 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2. Simpson’s Paradox 119\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3. Source of the Paradox 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4. Experimentation 122\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5. Randomization 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.6. Exchangeability 125\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.7. Spurious Association 128\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.8. Independence 130\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.9. Conclusions 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9. Variation 134\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.1. Variation and Uncertainty 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2. Binomial Distribution 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3. Expectation 137\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4. Poisson Distribution 139\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5. Spread 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6. Variability as an Experimental Tool 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.7. Probability and Chance 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.8. Pictorial Representation 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.9. The Normal Distribution 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.10. Variation as a Natural Phenomenon 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.11. Ellsberg’s Paradox 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cb\u003e10. Decision Analysis 158\u003c\/b\u003e  \u003cp\u003e10.1. Beliefs and Actions 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2. Comparison of Consequences 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3. Medical Example 162\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4. Maximization of Expected Utility 164\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.5. More on Utility 165\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6. Some Complications 167\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.7. Reason and Emotion 168\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.8. Numeracy 170\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.9. Expected Utility 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.10. Decision Trees 172\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.11. The Art and Science of Decision Analysis 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.12. Further Complications 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.13. Combination of Features 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.14. Legal Applications 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e11. Science 186\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.1. Scientific Method 186\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2. Science and Education 187\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3. Data Uncertainty 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.4. Theories 190\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.5. Uncertainty of a Theory 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.6. The Bayesian Development 195\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.7. Modification of Theories 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.8. Models 199\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.9. Hypothesis Testing 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.10. Significance Tests 204\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.11. Repetition 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.12. Summary 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e12. Examples 211\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.1. Introduction 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.2. Cards 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.3. The Three Doors 213\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4. The Newcomers to Your Street 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.5. The Two Envelopes 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.6. Y2K 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.7. UFOs 221\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.8. Conglomerability 224\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e13. Probability Assessment 226\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.1. Nonrepeatable Events 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2. Two Events 227\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3. Coherence 230\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.4. Probabilistic Reasoning 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.5. Trickle Down 234\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.6. Summary 236\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEpilogue 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSubject Index 243\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex of Examples 248\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex of Notations 250\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eDENNIS V. LINDLEY\u003c\/b\u003e is Professor Emeritus of Statistics and the former Head of Department at University College London. He is a Guy Medalist in Gold of the Royal Statistical Society and a founding organizer and former president of the celebrated Valencia International Meetings on Bayesian Statistics. Professor Lindley has published over 100 scholarly articles and several books, including \u003ci\u003eMaking Decisions\u003c\/i\u003e, also published by Wiley.\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003ePraise for the First Edition\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e“...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.”\u003cbr\u003e —\u003ci\u003eJournal of Applied Statistics\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFeaturing new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including:\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eA critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eA discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eA consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker’s odds are not expressions of probability\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eApplications of the book’s thesis to statistics\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eA demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eUnderstanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition\u003c\/i\u003e is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47990434365669,"sku":"NP9781118650127","price":127.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781118650127.jpg?v=1761787813","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/products\/understanding-uncertainty-isbn-9781118650127","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}