{"product_id":"the-sale-of-a-lifetime-isbn-9780735217744","title":"The Sale of a Lifetime","description":"\u003ci\u003eAfter the Roaring '20s came the Great Depression. After the Roaring 2000s came the Great Recession.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eWe're now entering the winter season of the 80-Year Four Season Economic Cycle. It's during this season that we'll clear the decks with a devastating crash and debilitating deflation. The economy and markets will shed the excesses created during the preceding fall bubble boom season and prepare the soil for new blossoming in innovation and a spring boom.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eAfter the blustering bull market of 2009-2015, we are now preparing for a shakeout more painful than anything we've seen before. We have eight years of unprecedented government stimulus and money creation to thank for stretching this bubble beyond imagination and making the burst more painful than anything we've ever experienced.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThere's no better guide to financial cycles than Harry S. Dent Jr., the bestselling author of \u003ci\u003eThe Demographic Cliff\u003c\/i\u003e and many other books, and the editor of the \u003ci\u003eBoom \u0026amp; Bust\u003c\/i\u003e newsletter. For more than 30 years he has earned a reputation for eerily accurate predictions about the world economy and the financial markets.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNow Dent has an urgent new warning about the next crisis. The consequences will be devastating--but there's a bright side that he's calling \"the sale of a lifetime.\" For anyone who heeds the signs and follows Dent's advice, the looming correction is a once-in-a-century opportunity to gather immense wealth.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn this pressing book, you'll learn not only why a collapse is imminent, but how to identify bubbles and tune in to the cycles driving that drive booms and busts.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePractical, accessible, and illuminating, \u003ci\u003eThe Sale of a Lifetime\u003c\/i\u003e will protect you from the tough challenges ahead and help you cash in on the unique opportunities of the next few years. At stake is nothing less than your entire financial future.\u003cb\u003eHarry S. Dent, Jr.\u003c\/b\u003e, is the bestselling author of \u003ci\u003eThe Demographic Cliff\u003c\/i\u003e, \u003ci\u003eThe Great Depression Ahead\u003c\/i\u003e, and many other books. He is the founder of Dent Research, which publishes the newsletters \u003ci\u003eEconomy \u0026amp; Markets\u003c\/i\u003e, \u003ci\u003eBoom \u0026amp; Bust\u003c\/i\u003e, and\u003ci\u003e The Leading Edge\u003c\/i\u003e, among many others. He has an MBA from Harvard, was a consultant for several Fortune 100 companies while at Bain \u0026amp; Company, and lectures widely. He lives in San Juan, Puerto Rico.CHAPTER 1\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e How to Identify a Bubble: Guiding Principle #1\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e IT'S ACTUALLY QUITE SIMPLE. You start the bubble identification      process by looking at cycles. That's because a few key cycles give      you the power to see what will impact your life, your business,      your family, and your investments over the course of your entire      life!\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e So I'm surprised when I hear someone say: \"I don't really believe      in cycles.\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e What!?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e You mean you don't believe that the sun will rise tomorrow      morning, like it did this morning?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e You don't believe that the tide will peak twice a day and that we      can know, down to the minute, when this will happen on every beach      around the world?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e You don't believe winter comes once a year?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e That you were born and will die?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e That your teenager will hate you when they turn 13?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Have you looked at an EKG . . . ever?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Did you know our stock market, adjusted for inflation, has peaked      every 39 years in the last century, that commodity prices peak      every 30 years, and boom\/bust cycles peak around every 10 years?  \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Did you know that the average household peaked in spending at age      46 (for the baby boom generation) and that has caused predictable      booms and busts that we can see decades in advance? (For Japanese      households, that peak in spending is at age 47 . . . it differs      from country to country, but only by a year or two on either side      of 46.)\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e What about the 500-Year Mega Innovation Cycle, which Henry      Phelps-Brown and Sheila Hopkins discovered? It shows that      inflation rises and peaks every 500 years. It did so in 1154 and      again in 1648. It's due to peak next around 2150.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e What about the 250-Year Revolution Cycle? The Protestant      Reformation . . . the American and French Revolutions . . . the      Industrial Revolution. The next one is coming in the next decade      or so!\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e What about the 165-Year East\/West Cycle? Power shifts from the      East to the West like clockwork! You can guess it's heading back      East for the next century.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e There's a 5,000-Year Civilization Cycle shifting from towns to      cities to megacities . . . oh, and have we seen megacities emerge      in the last century . . . the 10 million-plus club.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e A 100,000-Year Glaciation Cycle, with cooling longer term, except      CO2 cycles are causing man-made warming first . . .\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e A Billion-Year Climate Cycle . . .\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Sunspot Cycles . . .\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Population Cycles . . .\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Ovulation Cycles . . .\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Sleep\/Wake Cycles . . .\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e I think you get my point. Everything . . . EVERYTHING . . .      follows some (if not dozens) of cycles. I won't get into the      details of many of the cycles-it's not in the scope of this      book-but I have written about them before in The Leading Edge:      Harry Dent Unplugged, my bi-monthly newsletter. Visit      HarryDent.com if you're interested in learning more.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e So do yourself a favor: don't trust anyone who doesn't \"believe      in,\" or denies the existence of, cycles. I certainly don't.      They're either ignorant or short-sighted . . . and both conditions      are extremely dangerous to you.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e But while I believe Cycle Blasphemers and Cycle Atheists are      asleep at the wheel, I understand their deep-seated unwillingness      to accept the obvious. The truth is that many people don't want to      believe in cycles because they don't like change and they      especially don't like the challenging part of each cycle.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e They don't want to die (who does, really?). However, I would      propose that birth is actually more challenging and shocking.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Few parents welcome the puberty of their children.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e We don't want to endure economic downturns, even though that's      where all the great innovations happen and future prosperity is      born.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Humans generally abhor change, and cycles are all about change and      progress. Constant change. So many people just deny the existence      of such forces because that gives them the feeling of power where      they have none.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e It doesn't stop the inevitable . . . but it can mutate it when the      ones holding the national and global purse strings refuse to see      what's right in front of them. In Chapter 7, I'll go into the      details of how they did this, and the resultant damage they have      done. I'll also show you the only outcome that's possible . . .      but let's first truly come to grips with the nature of cycles and      the bubbles they bring about.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Of course, this is a book about bubbles and how this latest one is      opening up the sale of a lifetime for you as an investor and for      the best businesses, including yours. But as I'm about to show      you, cycles and bubbles are inextricably linked.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The Ultimate Economic Model\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Like it or not, everything in life is cyclical. And all cycles      have four seasons. Our annual weather cycle is the most obvious      example: spring, summer, fall, and winter. Not so different are      the four stages of our life: youth (spring), adulthood (summer),      midlife (fall), and retirement (winter). There are four stages of      the business cycle, too: innovation, growth, shakeout, and      maturity.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Just as there are four weeks in a month and four phases of the      moon, I've found that the economic cycle evolves through four      seasons as well, only over the approximate duration of a human      lifetime, currently about 80 years.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The first credible economic cycle I studied in the early 1980s was      the Kondratieff Wave, revealed by the Russian economist Nikolai      Kondratieff in 1925. Back then this was a 50- to 60-year cycle (we      didn't live as long) that saw peaks in inflation rates in 1814,      1864, 1920, and more recently, in 1980.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e This cycle of inflation and deflation was characterized as having      four seasons:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e A spring boom with mildly rising inflation.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e A summer recession with inflation rising to a long-term peak and      major wars.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e A fall boom with declining inflation, powerful new technologies      moving into the mainstream, and a credit bubble that leads to high      speculation and financial bubbles.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e And a winter deflation, during which time bubbles burst, debt      deleverages, prices deflate, and depression takes hold (and wars      can follow such upheaval as well, like it did with World War II).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Note that the great resets I showed you in Figure I-1 on page 6 in      the Introduction all tend to come during this economic winter      season, which indeed resets the economy from all of its excesses      and imbalances so it can grow again. And it happens once in a      lifetime!\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e But Kondratieff's original cycle seemed to lose its power to      predict a couple of decades ago when the winter deflationary      season was expected in the 1990s. I believe there are two reasons      the cycle failed: we saw the first middle class generation to      emerge after World War II, and the massive baby boom generation      followed!\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e When the Bob Hope generation, born between 1897 and 1924, entered      the workforce after winning World War II, they were the first      middle class generation that could afford to broadly buy homes      using longer term mortgages. They made the everyday person more      important to the economy than ever before. They put demographic      cycles to the forefront and such cycles have dominated ever since.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The Bob Hope generation's family cycle and spending boom dominated      and stretched beyond the 30-Year Boom\/Bust cycles, which were      based on commodities and innovation, to nearly 40 years! The      generation's boom stretched from 1942 to 1968, followed by its      bust from 1969 through 1982.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Then the largest generation in 250 years hit. The massive baby      boom took place from 1934 to 1961.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e When they entered the workforce en masse during the economic      summer season of the '70s, the economy saw massively higher      inflation trends. The cost of incorporating young people into the      workforce is high. Until they become productive, they drive up      inflation.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e And their impact on the economic fall season was also outsized,      extending that greatest and inevitable boom to grander heights,      and, again, for longer than Kondratieff's original cycle allowed      for. So when his cycle showed it was time for the economic winter      season to set in, we got the greatest boom in history instead.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e That's why there was a rash of books in the late 1980s and early      1990s calling for a great depression: Ravi Batra, Robert Prechter,      James Dale Davidson, and Harry Figgie wrote them, and they all      sold boatloads of copies. I respect most of these authors and read      their books because they have a much greater perspective of      history and cycles than most clueless economists who aspired to be      accountants but didn't have the personality. Of course, their      forecasts were wrong because Kondratieff's cycle no longer      \"seemed\" to work.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e They lacked the insight into the demographic impact of the new      generation cycle of middle class spending and the massive baby      boom . . . and how it altered the economic cycle.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e From the research I was working on at the time, I understood that      there was no way we could have a great depression when the largest      generation by far was in its sweet spot for spending, house      buying, and borrowing in the 1990s.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e So I wrote my second book in late 1992, called The Great Boom      Ahead (my first book, self-published in 1989, was Our Power to      Predict). I presented my thoughts on a new four-season economic      cycle that spanned roughly 80 years with two 40-year boom and bust      cycles.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e I saw that the baby boom had exaggerated the Kondratieff cycle in      terms of the magnitude of inflation and booms.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Besides, our life expectancies took a big leap between the 1930s      and 1960s, extending all human-related cycles, including the      length of the booms and busts.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The Kondratieff four-season cycle is still valid, but it has been      stretched and magnified. Just by projecting cycles in spending and      inflation through demographics, we can more accurately time this      powerful and overarching, four-season economic cycle into the      future.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e That's why it's important to be able to accurately project the      fundamental trends rather than just following historical,      clockwork-like cycles (although many are still very clockwork-like      and I will look at those later).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The deeper explanation for the shift from a 60-year to an 80-year      cycle is that our economy changed dramatically in the last      century.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Up until the late 1800s, the United States (and even most of      Europe) was still an agrarian nation with 80% of its population      involved in agriculture, mining, and trapping. Even in the early      1900s, it was still 60% rural. Of course, agrarian consumers don't      have nearly the effect on the economy that the urban, affluent,      middle-class consumers have today.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Even today in China and India, rural consumers have lower economic      impact because they're mostly self-sufficient farmers (I'm not      talking about commercial farmers here).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e But after the Roaring '20s, we saw the first mass affluent      middle-class society in history. Their spending cycles started      dominating the economy instead of the 30-Year Commodity Cycle.      This stretched the boom and bust cycle to 40 years each, so a full      four-season cycle is now 80 years long.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e All of this explains why most Kondratieff proponents were wrong      about a depression in the 1990s. On the extended, 80-year cycle,      that depression was due only 20 years later . . . and that's what      we're seeing now.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Figure 1-1 below shows you what this new 80-Year Economic Cycle      looks like:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e This 80-Year Economic Cycle perfectly summarizes what started in      1942, after the Great Depression that marked the end of the last      winter season with deflation in prices and massive bank and      business failures that generated 25%-plus unemployment.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The inflation index (the gray line) in Figure 1-1 follows the      traditional pattern of the Kondratieff Wave: moderate and rising      inflation in spring, high and peaking inflation in summer, falling      inflation in fall, and deflation (falling prices) in winter.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Think of inflation like temperatures in our annual weather cycle.      High temperatures are like high inflation and low temperatures are      like deflation. Both are uncomfortable and present challenges for      the economy and stock markets, which paradoxically are the      greatest drivers of breakthrough innovations that make us      wealthier and live longer over time.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The black line in Figure 1-1 is the Generational Spending Wave.      The Bob Hope generation's Spending Wave rose from 1942 into 1968,      which is also when we saw a great bull market in stocks. When      adjusted for inflation, the S\u0026amp;P 500 peaked in 1968. This was      the economic spring.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Then there was an on-and-off recession from 1969 through 1982, as      the Bob Hope generation slowed in its spending-the economy kept      going into recession after recession. But that time period saw the      emergence of the massive baby boom into the workforce that      paradoxically created high inflation along with a series of wars      (as is typical in the summer season).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Then the baby boom started up on its Spending Wave from 1983 to      2007, and again we saw the greatest stock market boom in history,      from August 1982 to October 2007.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e This was the economic fall and bubble boom season, paradoxically      with falling inflation and interest rates as that generation and      its new computer technologies created much higher productivity.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e In 2008, the baby boomers' spending began its slowdown, and so      started the great recession. That spending slowdown accelerates to      around 2020, then flattens out and doesn't turn up with the echo      boom or millennial generations until around 2023 forward. That is      the winter economic season.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e This economic winter will see deflation in prices from massive      debt and financial bubbles deleveraging, just like what happened      in the 1930s. And we'll see a depression, not a recession.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e But governments around the world have pulled out all the stops to      prevent this . . . good luck fighting Mother Nature on this one!\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Everything I just described to you is how I was able to forecast,      back in the late 1980s, that we'd see trouble after 2007! I      understood how the Kondratieff economic cycle had changed and when      I lagged the baby boom birth index by 46 years to see their      predictable peak in spending, I had a very clear view of the      future.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e And this is Guiding Principle #1 of bubbles: they occur in the      fall economic season, which consumer spending now predictably      drives. The combination of a strong boom and falling inflation      will always create bubbles. They're cyclical . . . which means      they're unavoidable and more easily predictable!\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Incidentally, this is how I also successfully forecasted, in 1989,      that Japan would collapse.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e My claims didn't make me very popular because, back then, everyone      was saying that Japan would become a superpower. Today, the      country is the poster child for how demographics drive the economy      and market . . . and what NOT to do when these inevitable busts      roll in.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Why every economist, central banker, and government official isn't      studying Japan is a mystery to me. They absolutely should be      because we're seeing one country after the next go over the      demographic cliff . . . and one bubble after the next reaching      their limits. But, they seem to live in a world of their own,      untethered from reality, where bubbles don't happen and they think      they can control consumer spending like puppets on a string.","brand":"Portfolio","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":46301089890533,"sku":"NP9780735217744","price":26.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9780735217744.jpg?v=1767741322","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/products\/the-sale-of-a-lifetime-isbn-9780735217744","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}