{"product_id":"the-long-good-buy-isbn-9781119688976","title":"The Long Good Buy","description":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePRAISE FOR \u003ci\u003eTHE LONG GOOD BUY\u003c\/i\u003e:\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"Oppenheimer offers brilliant insights, sage advice and entertaining anecdotes. Anyone wishing to understand how financial markets behave – and misbehave – should read this book now.\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eStephen D. King,\u003c\/b\u003e economist and author of \u003ci\u003eGrave New World: The End of Globalisation, the Return of History\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"Peter has always been one of the masters of dissecting financial markets performance into an understandable narrative, and in this book, he pulls together much of his great thinking and style from his career, and it should be useful for anyone trying to understand what drives markets, especially equities.\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eLord Jim O'Neill,\u003c\/b\u003e Chair, Chatham House\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"A deeply insightful analysis of market cycles and their drivers that really does add to our practical understanding of what moves markets and long-term investment returns.\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eKeith Skeoch,\u003c\/b\u003e CEO, Standard Life Aberdeen\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"This book eloquently blends the author's vast experience with behavioural finance insights to document and understand financial booms and busts. The book should be basic reading for any student of finance.\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003cbr\u003eElias Papaioannou,\u003c\/b\u003e Professor of Economics, London Business School\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"This is an excellent book, capturing the insights of a leading market practitioner within the structured analytical framework he has developed over many years. It offers a lively and unique perspective on how markets work and where they are headed.\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHuw Pill,\u003c\/b\u003e Senior Lecturer, Harvard Business School\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"\u003ci\u003eThe Long Good Buy\u003c\/i\u003e is an excellent introduction to understanding the cycles, trends and crises in financial markets over the past 100 years. Its purpose is to help investors assess risk and the probabilities of different outcomes. It is lucidly written in a simple logical way, requires no mathematical expertise and draws on an amazing collection of historical data and research. For me it is the best and most comprehensive introduction to the subject that exists.\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eLord Brian Griffiths,\u003c\/b\u003e Chairman - Centre for Enterprise, Markets and Ethics, Oxford\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgements xiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Author xvii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface xix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart I: Lessons from the Past: What Cycles Look Like and What Drives Them 9\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1: Riding the Cycle under Very Different Conditions 11\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2: Returns over the Long Run 29\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReturns over Different Holding Periods 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Reward for Risk and the Equity Risk Premium 35\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Power of Dividends 38\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFactors That Affect Returns for Investors 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMarket Timing 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValuations and Returns of Equities versus Bonds 43\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Impact of Diversification on the Cycle 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3: The Equities Cycle: Identifying the Phases 49\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Four Phases of the Equity Cycle 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMini\/High-Frequency Cycles within the Investment Cycle 58\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Interplay between the Cycle and Bond Yields 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4: Asset Returns through the Cycle 63\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAssets across the Economic Cycle 63\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAssets across the Investment Cycle 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Impact of Changes in Bond Yields on Equities 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Point of the Cycle: Earlier is Better 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Speed of Adjustment: Slower is Better 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Level of Yields: Lower is Better 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructural Shifts in the Value of Equities and Bonds 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5: Investment Styles over the Cycle 81\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSectors and the Cycle 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCyclical versus Defensive Companies 85\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValue versus Growth Companies 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValue, Growth and Duration 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart II: The Nature and Causes of Bull and Bear Markets: What Triggers Them and What to Look Out For 97\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6: Bear Necessities: The Nature and Shape of Bear Markets 99\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBear Markets Are Not All the Same 100\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCyclical Bear Markets 106\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvent-Driven Bear Markets 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructural Bear Markets 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInterest Rate Cuts Have Less Impact on Structural Bear Markets 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrice Shocks: Deflation is a Common Characteristic 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBelief in a New Era\/New Valuations 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHigh Levels of Debt 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEquity Market Leadership Becoming Narrow 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHigh Volatility 115\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Relationship between Bear Markets and Corporate Profits 115\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Summary of Bear Market Characteristics 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDefining the Financial Crisis: A Structural Bear Market with a Difference 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFinding an Indicator to Flag Bear Market Risk 119\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTypical Conditions Prior to Bear Markets 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Framework for Anticipating Bear Markets 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7: Bull’s Eye: The Nature and Shape of Bull Markets 127\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe ‘Super Cycle’ Secular Bull Market 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1945–1968: Post-War Boom 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1982–2000: The Start of Disinflation 131\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2009 Onwards: The Start of QE and the ‘Great Moderation’ 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCyclical Bull Markets 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVariations in the Length of Bull Markets 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNon-trending Bull Markets 138\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8: Blowing Bubbles: Signs of Excess 143\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSpectacular Price Appreciation . . . and Collapse 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBelief in a ‘New Era’ . . . This Time is Different 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDeregulation and Financial Innovation 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEasy Credit 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNew Valuation Approaches 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccounting Problems and Scandals 163\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart III: Lessons for the Future: A Focus on the Post-Financial Crisis Era; What has Changed and What It Means for Investors 167\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9: How the Cycle Has Changed Post the Financial Crisis 169\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThree Waves of the Financial Crisis 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Unusual Gap between Financial Markets and Economies 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll Boats Were Lifted by the Liquidity Wave 178\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Unusual Drivers of the Return 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLower Inflation and Interest Rates 180\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Downtrend in Global Growth Expectations 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Fall in Unemployment and Rise in Employment 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Rise in Profit Margins 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFalling Volatility of Macro Variables 187\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Rising Influence of Technology 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Extraordinary Gap between Growth and Value 190\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLessons from Japan 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10: Below Zero: The Impact of Ultra-Low Bond Yields 201\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZero Rates and Equity Valuations 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZero Rates and Growth Expectations 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZero Rates: Backing Out Future Growth 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZero Rates and Demographics 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZero Rates and the Demand for Risk Assets 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 11: The Impact of Technology on the Cycle 221\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Ascent of Technology and Historical Parallels 222\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Printing Press and the First Great Data Revolution 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Railway Revolution and Connected Infrastructure 224\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eElectricity and Oil Fuelled the 20th Century 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTechnology: Disruption and Adaption 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTechnology and Growth in the Cycle 227\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Long Can Stocks and Sectors Dominate? 231\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow High Do Valuations Go? 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Big Can Companies Get Relative to the Market? 235\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTechnology and the Widening Gaps between Winners and Losers 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary and Conclusions 241\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 249\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuggested Reading 259\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 265\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePETER C. OPPENHEIMER\u003c\/b\u003e has 35 years of experience working as a research analyst. He is chief global equity strategist and head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs. Prior to joining Goldman Sachs, he worked as managing director and chief investment strategist at HSBC and was previously head of European strategy at James Capel. Prior to that, he was chief economic strategist at Hambros Bank. Peter began his career as an economist at Greenwells in 1985. He enjoys cycling and painting.   \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eThe Long Good Buy: Analysing Cycles in Markets\u003c\/i\u003e explores the repeated patterns in financial markets, the factors that drive them, and how changes in economic conditions and technology drive investment opportunities. This in-depth book helps readers understand the features, characteristics and triggers of different market phases, and recognise how best to forecast future performance and make profitable investment and risk management decisions. Author Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist for Goldman Sachs, examines the relationships between financial cycles and economic cycles as well as the patterns of human behaviour that reflect, and sometimes amplify, expected economic conditions. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis unique book offers a detailed history of investment cycles and the conditions that have driven them, while discussing the many ways in which the post-financial-crisis cycle diverged from those in previous years. Detailed chapters examine investor returns over different holding periods, investigate the four phases of the equity cycle, describe the nature and shape of bear and bull markets, identify the warnings signs of bubbles and inflection points, and more. Offering valuable insight for professionals and sophisticated individual investors alike, this original and accessible book: \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eProvides practical tools and frameworks for assessing the risks and potential rewards as an investment cycle evolves\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eDescribes the major changes that have occurred in economic conditions, politics and technology in the past 50 years\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eExplores the impact of human behaviour, sentiment and psychology on financial and economic cycles\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIdentifies the key factors that affect returns in equities throughout market cycles\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eDiscusses the four phases of market cycles – despair, hope, growth and optimism – and shows how each is driven by a unique combination of factors\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIllustrates how fundamental characteristics of the cycle have changed since the financial crisis of 2008\/2009\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eThe Long Good Buy: Analysing Cycles in Markets\u003c\/i\u003e is an important resource for investors seeking to benefit from repeating financial cycles in equity markets.    \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePRAISE FOR THE LONG GOOD BUY\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"Oppenheimer offers brilliant insights, sage advice and entertaining anecdotes. Anyone wishing to understand how financial markets behave – and misbehave – should read this book now.\"\u003cbr\u003e —\u003cb\u003eStephen D. King,\u003c\/b\u003e economist and author of \u003ci\u003eGrave New World: The End of  Globalisation, the Return of History\u003c\/i\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"Peter has always been one of the masters of dissecting financial markets performance into an understandable narrative, and in this book, he pulls together much of his great thinking and style from his career, and it should be useful for anyone trying to understand what drives markets, especially equities.\"\u003cbr\u003e —\u003cb\u003eLord Jim O'Neill,\u003c\/b\u003e Chair, Chatham House \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"A deeply insightful analysis of market cycles and their drivers that really does add to our practical understanding of what moves markets and long-term investment returns.\"\u003cbr\u003e —\u003cb\u003eKeith Skeoch,\u003c\/b\u003e CEO, Standard Life Aberdeen \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"This book eloquently blends the author's vast experience with behavioural finance insights to document and understand financial booms and busts. The book should be basic reading for any student of finance.\"\u003cbr\u003e —\u003cb\u003eElias Papaioannou,\u003c\/b\u003e Professor of Economics, London Business School \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"This is an excellent book, capturing the insights of a leading market practitioner within the structured analytical framework he has developed over many years. It offers a lively and unique perspective on how markets work and where they are headed.\"\u003cbr\u003e —\u003cb\u003eHuw Pill,\u003c\/b\u003e Senior Lecturer, Harvard Business School \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"\u003ci\u003eThe Long Good Buy\u003c\/i\u003e is an excellent introduction to understanding the cycles, trends and crises in financial markets over the past 100 years. Its purpose is to help investors assess risk and the probabilities of different outcomes. It is lucidly written in a simple logical way, requires no mathematical expertise and draws on an amazing collection of historical data and research. For me it is the best and most comprehensive introduction to the subject that exists.\"\u003cbr\u003e —\u003cb\u003eLord Brian Griffiths,\u003c\/b\u003e Chairman - Centre for Enterprise, Markets and   Ethics, Oxford\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47990281568485,"sku":"NP9781119688976","price":34.99,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781119688976.jpg?v=1761787187","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/products\/the-long-good-buy-isbn-9781119688976","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}