{"product_id":"the-commitments-of-traders-bible-isbn-9780470178423","title":"The Commitments of Traders Bible","description":"Regardless of your trading methods, and no matter what markets you’re involved in, there is a Commitments of Traders (COT) report that you should be reviewing every week. Nobody understands this better than Stephen Briese, an industry-leading expert on COT data. And now, with \u003ci\u003eThe Commitments of Traders Bible,\u003c\/i\u003e Briese reveals how to use the predictive power of COT data—and accurately interpret it—in order to analyze market movements and achieve investment success. \u003cp\u003eList of Illustrations xiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eList of Tables xix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface xxi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments xxv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart I COT Theory\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1 The COT—Assorted History 3\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Grain Futures Administration 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Commodity Exchange Authority 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission 5\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Modern COT Data 6\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCOT Options and Futures Combined Report 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCOT-Supplemental Commodity Index Trader Report 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Fable 11\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2 COT Reports—Counting 1, 2, 3 . . . 15\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Long Form 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Short Form 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCOT-Supplemental Commodity Index Report 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3 Player Introductions 27\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSizing Them Up 27\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Reporting System 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommercial Hedgers 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLarge Speculators 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommodity Index Traders 34\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSmall Traders 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4 Fading Small Speculators and Other Half-Baked Schemes 39\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTIP: Always Follow Commercials 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTIP: Net Long Is Bullish; Net Short Bearish 40\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTIP: Always Fade the Small Speculator 43\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTIP: It Is Only Logical to Compare Hedging to the Seasonal Average 43\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTIP: The COT Is Old News by the Time It Is Released 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5 Net Positions 47\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOpen Interest 47\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConstructing Net Positions Charts 47\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLarge Speculator Patterns 51\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommercial Patterns 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSmall Trader Patterns 59\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommodity Index Traders 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6 The COT Index 63\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCOT Index Calculation (Commercials) 63\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAlternative Look-Back Periods 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe COT Index as the Great Normalizer 67\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInterpreting the COT Index 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHeal Thyself 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7 COT Movement Index 75\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommercial Movement Index 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e40 Point COT Surge Rules (Commercials) 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCombining the Indexes 77\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFund Movement Index 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8 View from the Gallery 83\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eKeynes’s Theory of Normal Backwardation 84\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCan Speculators Forecast Prices? 85\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReturns to Speculators and the Theory of Normal Backwardation 86\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReturns to Individual Traders of Futures: Aggregate Results 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLuck Versus Forecast Ability: Determinants of Trader Performance in Futures Markets 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Returns and Forecasting Ability of Large Traders in the Frozen Pork Bellies Futures Market 88\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHedging Pressure Effects in Futures Markets 88\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHedging Demand and Foreign Exchange Risk Premia 89\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInvestor Sentiment and Return Predictability in Agricultural Futures Markets 89\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Behavior and Performance of Major Types of Futures Traders 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExchange Rate Changes and Net Positions of Speculators in the Futures Market 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Profitability of Speculators in Currency Futures Markets 94\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 95\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9 View from the Pits 97\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Study Data 98\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Trading Rules 98\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTrading Rules Test Results 100\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTrading System Considerations 100\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10 Chart Pattern Validation 105\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Brief Charting Primer 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBottom Formations 106\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTop Formations 108\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContinuation Patterns 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 11 Getting Technical 115\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCOT-Stochastics 115\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCOT MACD-Histogram 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCOT-RSI 120\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStandard Deviation (Bollinger) Bands 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusions 122\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart II COT in Practice\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 12 Crossing Currencies 127\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommercials 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eU.S. Dollar Index 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCurrency Correlation Tables 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCurrency Futures Historical COT Charts 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 13 Taking Stock 145\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe COT Beats the Averages 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStock Index Correlation Tables 148\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStock Index Futures Historical COT Charts 148\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 14 Test of Metal 155\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMarking Time in Gold 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Gold\/Silver Ratio 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Copper Caper 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommercials 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMetal Correlation Tables 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMetal Futures Historical COT Charts 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 15 Oil’s Slick 165\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo an Uninterrupted Gasoline Supply 165\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommercial Hedgers 168\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePetroleum Correlation Tables 168\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePetroleum Futures Historical COT Charts 169\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 16 Interest in Rates 175\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Drives Rates? 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommercial Hedgers 176\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTreasury Futures Correlation Tables 176\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTreasury Futures Historical COT Charts 176\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 17 Bean Counting 183\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe One That Got Away 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommercial Hedgers 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSoy and Grain Correlation Tables 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSoy and Grain Historical COT Charts 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 18 Moonlighting 195\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt Might Be Corny, But. . . 195\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSmall Can Be Beautiful 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommercial Hedgers 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLivestock Correlation Tables 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLivestock Historical COT Charts 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 19 Cedeless Oranges 205\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContinuous Commodity Index 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFood and Fiber Correlation Tables 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFood and Fiber Historical COT Charts 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 20 Now You CIT, Now You Don’t 217\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe COT-Supplemental Report 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHistorical COT-Supplemental Charts 218\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEpilogue 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix A: Alternative Net Position Formulas 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix B: Dodging the Pitfalls in COT Data 243\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 251\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlossary 257\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Author 269\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 271\u003c\/p\u003e \"…best book I have read on the COT reports...will give you a better understanding of how the commodity markets work...\" (\u003ci\u003eAbout.com: Commodities\u003c\/i\u003e) \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eStephen Briese\u003c\/b\u003e is the leading expert on analyzing the Commitments of Traders data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Briese has published a newsletter, \u003ci\u003eBullish Review,\u003c\/i\u003e since 1988 and has written articles for several industry publications and spoken at a variety of industry trading and technical analysis conferences.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report has established the U.S. futures market as one of the most transparent exchanges in the world—and created a level playing field for commodity and futures traders of all sizes in the process. But the information found within the COT report extends well beyond the confines of the commodity pits and can be profitably applied to virtually any market sector, from equities and treasuries to forex, gold stocks, and exchange-traded funds.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNobody understands this better than author Stephen Briese, an industry-leading expert on COT data. And now, with The Commitments of Traders Bible, he shares the insights and experiences of his successful career to help put the COT report in perspective. Written in a straightforward and accessible style, this detailed guide skillfully examines the predictive power of COT data and reveals how you can accurately interpret it in order to analyze market movements and make the most informed investment decisions possible.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDivided into two comprehensive parts, this reliable resource:\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eTakes you through a brief history of the COT report and explains how it has evolved over time\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIllustrates how the dozens of numbers published on specific markets expose the positions of the biggest and smartest market insiders\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eDescribes how to properly view the COT Index and use it to avoid the traps that most observers fall into\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eOffers technicians and chartists various ways to incorporate COT analysis into their existing programs\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eDiscusses individual idiosyncrasies and patterns that appear in certain markets—from oil to interest rates\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eLists hundreds of securities from all over the world whose prices are highly correlated with commodities contained in the COT report\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eRegardless of your trading methods, and no matter what markets you're involved in, there is a COT report that you should be reviewing every week. With The Commitments of Traders Bible as your guide, you'll gain an invaluable edge over uninformed market participants as you learn how to use legal \"insider\" information to enhance your everyday investment endeavors.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePraise for \u003ci\u003eThe Commitments of Traders Bible\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"This book provides an important understanding of how the crowd operates in the markets. Steve Briese has given us a complete explanation of the metrics that are required to actually use contrary opinion methods.\"\u003cbr\u003e—\u003cb\u003eWoody Dorsey, President, Market Semiotics, and author of \u003ci\u003eBehavioral Trading\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"Steve Briese is the master of the COT and here gives us the benefit of many years of experience in using the Commitments of Traders reports in his trading. Steve guides us, with wit and humor, through how the COT is calculated, why it is valuable, and, more importantly—how to use it to uncover an edge in your trading and investing. You will profit from this book.\"\u003cbr\u003e—\u003cb\u003eCharlie Wright, Chairman, Fall River Capital, LLC\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"I have followed Steve Briese's analysis for two decades in trading the commodities markets. His methods and conclusions from COT data are fact based and often properly contrarian. In today's world, where commodity hedge funds have become even larger players, Steve Briese's work assumes an even higher importance level for commodity market participants, individual and professional alike.\"\u003cbr\u003e—\u003cb\u003eBrent R. Harris, Head of PIMCO Real Return and Commodities Desk; Chairman, PIMCO Funds\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47990191096037,"sku":"NP9780470178423","price":84.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9780470178423.jpg?v=1761786854","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/products\/the-commitments-of-traders-bible-isbn-9780470178423","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}