{"product_id":"the-business-forecasting-deal-isbn-9780470574430","title":"The Business Forecasting Deal","description":"\u003cb\u003ePractical-nontechnical-solutions to the problems of business forecasting\u003c\/b\u003e  \u003cp\u003eWritten in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to common business forecasting problems, showing you how to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness and process performance.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eAddresses the philosophical foundations of forecasting\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eRaises awareness of fundamental issues usually overlooked in pursuit of the perfect forecast\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIntroduces a new way to think about business forecasting, focusing on process efficiency and the elimination of worst practices\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eProvides practical approaches for the non-statistical problems forecasters face\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIllustrates Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis for identifying waste in the forecasting process\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eCouched in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, this book offers new, innovative ideas for resolving your business forecasting problems.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForeword—Tom Wallace xiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForeword—Anne G. Robinson xv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments xvii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrologue 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1 Fundamental Issues in Business Forecasting 5\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Problem of Induction 5\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Realities of Business Forecasting 6\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Contest 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Is Demand? 10\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConstrained Forecast 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDemand Volatility 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInherent Volatility and Artificial Volatility 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvils of Volatility 19\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvaluating Forecast Performance 22\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEmbarking on Improvement 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2 Worst Practices in Business Forecasting: Part 1 29\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWorst Practices in the Mechanics of Forecasting 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModel “Overfitting” and “Pick-Best” Selection 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConfusing Model Fit with Forecast Accuracy 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccuracy Expectations and Performance Goals 43\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFailure to Use a Naïve Model or Assess Forecast Value Added 47\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Hierarchies 48\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOutlier Handling 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 54\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3 Worst Practices in Business Forecasting: Part 2 55\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWorst Practices in the Process and Practices of Forecasting 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolitics of Forecasting 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBlaming the Forecast 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAdding Variation to Demand 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvangelical Forecasting 64\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverinvesting in the Forecasting Function 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Performance Measurement and Reporting 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Software Selection 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEditorial Comment on Forecasting Practices 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 78\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4 Forecast Value Added Analysis 81\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Is Forecast Value Added? 82\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Naïve Forecast 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Is FVA Important? 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFVA Analysis: Step-by-Step 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Application of FVA Analysis 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCase Studies 102\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary: The Lean Approach to Forecasting 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 108\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5 Forecasting without History.111\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTypical New Product Forecasting Situations 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNew Product Forecasting by Structured Analogy 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOrganizational Realignment 120\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 131\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6 Alternative Approaches to the Problems of Business Forecasting.133\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStatistical Approach 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCollaborative Approach 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSupply Chain Engineering Approach 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePruning Approach 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 149\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7 Implementing a Forecasting Solution 151\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Do Forecasting Implementations Fail? 151\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreproject Assessment 153\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRequesting Information or Proposals 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvaluating Software Vendors 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWarning Signs of Failure 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8 Practical First Steps 161\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 1: Recognize the Volatility versus Accuracy Relationship 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 2: Determine Inherent and Artifi cial Volatility 165\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 3: Understand What Accuracy Is Reasonable to Expect 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 4: Use Forecast Value Added Analysis to Eliminate Wasted Efforts 167\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 5: Utilize Meaningful Performance Metrics and Reporting 168\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 6: Eliminate Worst Practices 169\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 7: Consult Forecasting Resources 170\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 173\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9 What Management Must Know About Forecasting 175\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAphorism 1: Forecasting Is a Huge Waste of Management Time 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAphorism 2: Accuracy Is Determined More by the Nature of the Behavior Being Forecast than by the Specific Method Being Used to Forecast It 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAphorism 3: Organizational Policies and Politics Can Have a Significant Impact on Forecasting Effectiveness 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAphorism 4: You May Not Control the Accuracy Achieved, But You Can Control the Process Used and the Resources You Invest 180\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAphorism 5: The Surest Way to Get a Better Forecast Is to Make the Demand Forecastable 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAphorism 6: Minimize the Organization’s Reliance on Forecasting 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAphorism 7: Before Investing in a New System or Process, Put It to the Test 184\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEpilogue 187\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlossary 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix Forecasting FAQs 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccuracy Expectations 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePerformance Benchmarks 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePerformance Measurement and Reporting 198\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Naïve Forecast 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecast Value Added Analysis 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecast Modeling 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolitics and Practices of Forecasting 224\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDemand Volatility 227\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Process 230\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eJudgment 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Organization 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLow Volume\/Intermittent Demand 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNew Product Forecasting 241\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Hierarchy 242\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSoftware Selection 245\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 247\u003c\/p\u003e   \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eMICHAEL GILLILAND\u003c\/b\u003e is Product Marketing Manager at SAS Institute and has worked in consu-mer products forecasting for more than twenty years. Prior to joining SAS in 2004, Mike held forecasting management positions in the food, electronics, and apparel industries and served as a consultant. He is a frequent speaker at industry events, has published articles in \u003ci\u003eSupply Chain Management Review\u003c\/i\u003e, \u003ci\u003eJournal of Business Forecasting, Foresight\u003c\/i\u003e, and \u003ci\u003eAPICS\u003c\/i\u003e magazine, and was a columnist on \"Worst Practices in Business Forecasting\" for \u003ci\u003eSupply Chain Forecasting Digest\u003c\/i\u003e. Mike holds a BA in philosophy from Michigan State University, and master's degrees in philosophy and mathematical sciences from Johns Hopkins University. Follow his blog, The Business Forecasting Deal, at blogs.sas.com\/forecasting.      \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eTHE BUSINESS FORECASTING DEAL\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eExposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBusiness forecasting is the ultimate no-win game. You're almost always wrong—except on those rare, random occasions where actual sales come in exactly on forecast—and you get beat up routinely for your \"lousy forecasts.\" Against this framework, \u003ci\u003eThe Business Forecasting Deal\u003c\/i\u003e turns forecasting on its head. Instead of focusing solely on statistical modeling and forecast accuracy—accuracy being largely determined by the nature of the demand you are trying to forecast—Michael Gilliland turns your attention to forecasting process efficiency and effectiveness. His unique perspective, utilizing the emerging method of Forecast Value Added (FVA) analysis, shows how organizations can meaningfully improve their performance by eliminating the \"worst practices\" that now sabotage and confound their forecasting efforts. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWhile predicting the future is a very difficult thing, there is no shortage of articles, books, consultants, and even software vendors willing to tell you (or sell you) their version of forecasting best practices. However, many of these purported \"best practices\" do not work—they fail to make the forecast any better. Through FVA analysis—a method that has been employed at several major corporations including Intel, AstraZeneca, Cisco, and Yokohama Tire (Canada)—\u003ci\u003eThe Business Forecasting Deal\u003c\/i\u003e shows how to identify the waste and inefficiencies in the typical forecasting process. By eliminating those (surprisingly common) practices that make the forecast worse, FVA analysis is helping companies get better forecasts with less effort and less cost. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWritten in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to a wide variety of business forecasting problems. It illustrates a new way to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, all within the internal political arena in which real-life forecasting is conducted. While there is no magic formula to guarantee perfect forecasts, this book will change your perspective—and improve your success—in dealing with the problems of business forecasting.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47990179168485,"sku":"NP9780470574430","price":49.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9780470574430.jpg?v=1761786806","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/products\/the-business-forecasting-deal-isbn-9780470574430","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}