The Art of Decision Making
by Wiley
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$90.00
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Original price
$90.00
Original price
$90.00
$90.00
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$90.00
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$90.00
Description
Science reassures, art disturbs (Proverb)
This intriguing exploration of underlying forces in decision making takes as its starting point a wealth of high profile decision disasters. In brilliantly readable analyses, Helga Drummond shows how better awareness of the inherent uncertainties of the decision making process could have made the outcomes very different.
Examples showcased include:
The Hatfield rail crash
The Kursk submarine disaster
The Challenger disaster
The year 2000 fuel crisis
The WWII Dardanelles expedition
The Barings Bank collapse
The Taurus Stock Exchange Project The Hillsborough tragedy
The King's Cross underground fire
The Millennium Dome
This entertaining yet instructive book offers new insight into the realities of decision making, and shows how you can confront them to improve your prospects of success.Schon immer gab es Spannungen zwischen jenen, die glaubten, dass die besten Entscheidungen auf Zahlen und Berechnungen basieren, und jenen, die ihre Ansichten auf anspruchsvollere Kriterien über das Wesen der Zukunft stützen. In der gängigen Literatur wird das Risiko nach statistischen und probabilistischen Methoden berechnet, wodurch der Eindruck entsteht, dass man das Risiko berechnen und damit steuern kann. Dieses Buch will zeigen, dass solche Annahmen zwar nicht gänzlich falsch sind, aber nur einen Teil der Wahrheit beinhalten. Dabei spielt es keine Rolle, wie klar Aufgaben definiert sind und wie oft wir miteinander sprechen - nichts ist wirklich eindeutig. Autorin Helga Drummond erläutert, dass Vieles von dem, was wir als real bezeichnen, in Wirklichkeit mehrdeutig ist und sich verändert. Sie stützt sich dabei weniger auf die Statistik als vielmehr auf die Dynmaik des Wandels und verbindet das Risiko mit der Entscheidungsfindung im Unternehmen. Damit bietet sie eine ganzheitliche Betrachtung über das Wesen des Risikos und des Entscheidungsfindungsprozesses. Acknowledgements.
Introduction.
The Clock That Struck Thirteen: The Challenge of Sense Making.
The Morning After.
The Dark Side of the Moon.
Ghosts and Shadows: Reflections on Information and Decision Making.
Tricks of Mind.
The Essential Lie: Exploring the Myth-making Process.
High Tides and Green Grass: The Illusion of Control.
Tales of the Unexpected: Exploring the Paradox of Consequence.
Riding the Tiger: Escalation in Decision Making.
An 'Ace of Success': Knocking at the Door of Fate.
The Point of No Return.
The Art of Decision Making.
Epilogue: A Dancing Star.
References.
Index. "..fascinating.."
(Financial Times, 19 Janaury 2002) HELGA DRUMMOND is Professor of Decision Sciences at the University of Liverpool, UK.
She has consulted for a multitude of businesses ranging from undertakers to IT managers - a dversity reflected in The Art of Decision Making - and is the author of seven previous books that have been translated worldwide. Are we merely at the mercy of chance?
We all make hundreds of decisions every day, and mostly with little thought. Unconscious processes are clearly at work. But what part do these unconscious processes play when we come to make the really important decisions?
Decision science assumes that we live in a world where problems arrive one at a time, neatly labelled 'for attention'. In contrast, a key theme of this book is that real situations seldom make sense, and decisions aree rarely clear. Ambiguity always lurks.
The Art of Decision Making stresses reflection and imagination. Its eclectic case studies compel you to keep reading to the end. And by incorporating its insights, you will engage the subtly shifting tides of fortune and ultimately become more powerful.
Read on: anything might yet happen. Science reassures, art disturbs (Proverb)
This intriguing exploration of underlying forces in decision making takes as its starting point a wealth of high profile decision disasters. In brilliantly readable analyses, Helga Drummond shows how better awareness of the inherent uncertainties of the decision making process could have made the outcomes very different.
Examples showcased include:
The Hatfield rail crash
The Kursk submarine disaster
The Challenger disaster
The year 2000 fuel crisis
The WWII Dardanelles expedition
The Barings Bank collapse
The Taurus Stock Exchange Project The Hillsborough tragedy
The King's Cross underground fire
The Millennium Dome
This entertaining yet instructive book offers new insight into the realities of decision making, and shows how you can confront them to improve your prospects of success.
This intriguing exploration of underlying forces in decision making takes as its starting point a wealth of high profile decision disasters. In brilliantly readable analyses, Helga Drummond shows how better awareness of the inherent uncertainties of the decision making process could have made the outcomes very different.
Examples showcased include:
The Hatfield rail crash
The Kursk submarine disaster
The Challenger disaster
The year 2000 fuel crisis
The WWII Dardanelles expedition
The Barings Bank collapse
The Taurus Stock Exchange Project The Hillsborough tragedy
The King's Cross underground fire
The Millennium Dome
This entertaining yet instructive book offers new insight into the realities of decision making, and shows how you can confront them to improve your prospects of success.Schon immer gab es Spannungen zwischen jenen, die glaubten, dass die besten Entscheidungen auf Zahlen und Berechnungen basieren, und jenen, die ihre Ansichten auf anspruchsvollere Kriterien über das Wesen der Zukunft stützen. In der gängigen Literatur wird das Risiko nach statistischen und probabilistischen Methoden berechnet, wodurch der Eindruck entsteht, dass man das Risiko berechnen und damit steuern kann. Dieses Buch will zeigen, dass solche Annahmen zwar nicht gänzlich falsch sind, aber nur einen Teil der Wahrheit beinhalten. Dabei spielt es keine Rolle, wie klar Aufgaben definiert sind und wie oft wir miteinander sprechen - nichts ist wirklich eindeutig. Autorin Helga Drummond erläutert, dass Vieles von dem, was wir als real bezeichnen, in Wirklichkeit mehrdeutig ist und sich verändert. Sie stützt sich dabei weniger auf die Statistik als vielmehr auf die Dynmaik des Wandels und verbindet das Risiko mit der Entscheidungsfindung im Unternehmen. Damit bietet sie eine ganzheitliche Betrachtung über das Wesen des Risikos und des Entscheidungsfindungsprozesses. Acknowledgements.
Introduction.
The Clock That Struck Thirteen: The Challenge of Sense Making.
The Morning After.
The Dark Side of the Moon.
Ghosts and Shadows: Reflections on Information and Decision Making.
Tricks of Mind.
The Essential Lie: Exploring the Myth-making Process.
High Tides and Green Grass: The Illusion of Control.
Tales of the Unexpected: Exploring the Paradox of Consequence.
Riding the Tiger: Escalation in Decision Making.
An 'Ace of Success': Knocking at the Door of Fate.
The Point of No Return.
The Art of Decision Making.
Epilogue: A Dancing Star.
References.
Index. "..fascinating.."
(Financial Times, 19 Janaury 2002) HELGA DRUMMOND is Professor of Decision Sciences at the University of Liverpool, UK.
She has consulted for a multitude of businesses ranging from undertakers to IT managers - a dversity reflected in The Art of Decision Making - and is the author of seven previous books that have been translated worldwide. Are we merely at the mercy of chance?
We all make hundreds of decisions every day, and mostly with little thought. Unconscious processes are clearly at work. But what part do these unconscious processes play when we come to make the really important decisions?
Decision science assumes that we live in a world where problems arrive one at a time, neatly labelled 'for attention'. In contrast, a key theme of this book is that real situations seldom make sense, and decisions aree rarely clear. Ambiguity always lurks.
The Art of Decision Making stresses reflection and imagination. Its eclectic case studies compel you to keep reading to the end. And by incorporating its insights, you will engage the subtly shifting tides of fortune and ultimately become more powerful.
Read on: anything might yet happen. Science reassures, art disturbs (Proverb)
This intriguing exploration of underlying forces in decision making takes as its starting point a wealth of high profile decision disasters. In brilliantly readable analyses, Helga Drummond shows how better awareness of the inherent uncertainties of the decision making process could have made the outcomes very different.
Examples showcased include:
The Hatfield rail crash
The Kursk submarine disaster
The Challenger disaster
The year 2000 fuel crisis
The WWII Dardanelles expedition
The Barings Bank collapse
The Taurus Stock Exchange Project The Hillsborough tragedy
The King's Cross underground fire
The Millennium Dome
This entertaining yet instructive book offers new insight into the realities of decision making, and shows how you can confront them to improve your prospects of success.
PUBLISHER:
Wiley
ISBN-13:
9780471497189
BINDING:
Hardback
BISAC:
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
BOOK DIMENSIONS:
Dimensions: 159.50(W) x Dimensions: 242.00(H) x Dimensions: 24.80(D)
AUDIENCE TYPE:
General/Adult
LANGUAGE:
English