Scenarios

Scenario planning allows companies to move away from linear thinking and better understand external change. Eight years (and 30,000 copies) after publication Scenarios is still acknowledged as the definitive work in the field. Now, Kees van der Heijden brings his bestseller up to date, following up on his original case studies and adding significant new material. The Second Edition changes focus slightly by providing more in-depth analysis and application of the concept of the 'strategic conversation'. While maintaining the underlying rigour of the first edition, van der Heijden revisits the text to make it far more practical and accessible, and in doing so gives you the tools you need to set out and negotiate a successful future course for your organization in the face of significant uncertainty.

Preface ix

Part One: The Context 1

1. 1965 to 1990: Five Discoveries at Shell 3

2. Introduction to Scenario-based Planning 11

3. Three Competing Paradigms in Strategic Management 21

Part Two: The Principles of Scenario-based Planning 51

4. Strategising 53

5. The Business Idea of an Organisation 63

6. The Uncertain Environment 91

7. Scenario Analysis 113

8. Scenarios and the Strategic Conversation 131

Part Three: The Practice of Scenario-based Planning 153

9. The Practitioner’s Art 155

10. Articulation of the Business Idea 193

11. Competitive Positioning 209

12. Scenario Development 219

13. Option Planning 273

Part Four: Institutionalising Scenario-based Planning 289

14. The Management of Change 291

15. Planning Process 299

16. The Informal Strategic Conversation 323

Conclusion 343

References 347

Index 351

“…all important subjects for the modern manager are covered in 5 parts…” (Business Books – web)

About the author

Kees van der Heijden is an Associate Fellow of Templeton College, University of Oxford, and a Visiting Professor at the Netherlands Business School, Nijenrode University. He is also Emeritus Professor of the University of Strathclyde Graduate School of Business, Glasgow, where he has taught General and Strategic Management since 1990. In addition, he is a co-founder of the Global Business Network. Before joining Strathclyde, he was in charge of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell, as head of the Group’s Business Environment Division. This involved advising top management on strategy, as well as development of the process of scenario planning in which Shell has taken a worldwide leading role.

He specializes in scenario planning, strategic change and institutional strategic management processes, and has consulted widely in these areas.

The Second Edition features brand new material throughout, and places increased emphasis on the essential link between organizational success and unique insights and original ideas. In addition, the entire text has been rewritten to bring it up-to-date and make it more practical whilst retaining the underlying rigour. A new website offers support materials for tutors.

Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Second Edition will help you:

• Break out of the organization’s ‘thinking box’ and take a wider perspective
• Understand the unique drivers of an organization’s success by articulating its central business idea
• Develop scenarios as alternative ways of making sense of what is happening in the business environment, and use them to become more secure with the future
• Gain new understanding of the organization in its ‘playing field’, using narrative and storylines to articulate the overall systemic framework and make it visible
• Do all of this as an organizational process, to impact thinking of the organization as a whole and to prepare it for action.