{"product_id":"rational-decision-making-for-managers-isbn-9780470519653","title":"Rational Decision Making for Managers","description":"\u003ci\u003eRational Decision Making for Managers\u003c\/i\u003e provides students with a basic understanding of quantitative and analytical techniques that managers use to make complex business decisions and helps them to recognise when they are appropriate. Sarah Keast and Mike Towler also show the characteristics of the decisions that can be informed by the use of each technique, thereby guiding the reader in their choice.  \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eRational Decision Making for Managers\u003c\/i\u003e features:\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul type=\"disc\"\u003e \u003cli\u003eseparate chapters on robustness analysis and game theory\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003ea strong contextual discussion and clear structure\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003ea concise mathematical appendix\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe book is essential reading for students studying business decision making, quantitative methods and business research methods.\u003c\/p\u003e  About the Authors.  \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgements.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePART 1 The Decision Context.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 Introduction to Decision-making.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat is a Decision?\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUncertainty and Risk in Decision-taking.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProbability.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRational Decision-taker.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBiases.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDescriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Decision-making.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModels.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWho Should Participate in a Decision Process?.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverview of Text.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 Time Series Forecasting.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCreating a Time Series Forecast – Overview.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eData Types.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentifying Trends.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDecomposition.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFinding the Seasonal Component.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAverage and Moving Average Forecasts.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimple Exponential Smoothing.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExponential Smoothing for Data with a Trend.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExponential Smoothing for Non-Stationary Data with Seasonality.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStandard Deviation of the Forecast.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChoosing Appropriate Forecasting Models.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTransforming Data.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAlternative Time Series Forecasting Techniques.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 Explanatory and Qualitative Forecasting.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative Explanatory Forecasting.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLinear Regression.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eElicitation of an Expert’s Probabilities.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructured Group Processes.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario Analysis.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePART 2 One-off and Repeat Decisions.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Inventory Management.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Fixed Order Quantity Inventory System.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Newsvendor Model.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Economic Order Quantity Model with Known Stock-out Costs.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Payoff Matrices.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePayoff Matrices with Certainty.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePayoff Matrices with Multiple Future States and a Dominant Strategy.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePayoff Matrices with Strict Uncertainty.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePayoff Matrices with Uncertainty or Risk.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChoosing a Decision Criterion.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Value of Perfect Information.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSensitivity Analysis.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 Linear Programming.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSolving the Linear Programme.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCorner Method.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSensitivity Analysis.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChanging Constraints.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChanging the Objective Function.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsing Excel Solver.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInteger Programming.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFormulating Decision-making Problems as Linear Programmes.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7 Simultaneous Move Games.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTerminology.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZero-sum Games.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNon-zero-sum Games.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMixed Strategies for Players with Three or More Strategies.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContinuous Strategies.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eN\u003c\/i\u003e-Player Games.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePART 3 Sequential Decisions.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8 Robustness Analysis.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRobustness Analysis.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRobustness Analysis as a Framework: Literature Examples.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9 Decision Tree Analysis.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDecision Tree Notation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConstructing a Decision Tree.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRolling Back a Decision Tree 1: Sequential Decision and Event Nodes.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRolling Back a Decision Tree 2: Waiting for Uncertainty to Resolve.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRolling Back a Decision Tree 3: Exploratory Actions and Posterior Probabilities.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction to Sensitivity Analysis.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUnivariate Sensitivity Analysis.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBivariate Sensitivity Analysis.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eN\u003c\/i\u003e-Way (Multivariate) Sensitivity Analysis.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary of the Decision Tree Analysis Method.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter Appendix. A Brief Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e10 Sequential Games.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExtensive Form.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRollback Revisited.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAsymmetry of Information.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSignals.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSignal Jamming and Screening.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBargaining.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix: Mathematics Revision.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eSarah Keast \u003c\/b\u003eis a lecturer in information management at the University of Plymouth Business School. Sarah has formed an interest in the use of mathematical modelling and quantitative analysis techniques in both the economic and the general business environments.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eMichael Towler\u003c\/b\u003e began his career in research and development and has worked in the public and private sector as well as R\u0026amp;D management. He joined the University of Plymouth Business School in 2002 where he lectured in operations management and in business decision-making. In 2008 this was followed by a move to BPP Business School.  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eRational decision-making tools are quantitative and analytical tools that managers use to make complex business decisions. \u003ci\u003eRational Decision-making for Managers\u003c\/i\u003e provides students with a basic understanding of these techniques and helps them to recognise when they are appropriate. Sarah Keast and Michael Towler also show the characteristics of the decisions that can be informed by the use of each technique, thereby guiding the readers in their choice.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eRational Decision-making for Managers\u003c\/i\u003e features: \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eseparate chapters on robustness analysis and game theory\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003ea strong contextual discussion and clear structure\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003ea concise mathematical appendix.\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe book is essential reading for students studying business decision-making, quantitative methods and business research methods. There is an accompanying web site \u003cb\u003ewww.wileyeurope.com\/college\/towler\u003c\/b\u003e including PowerPoint slides, teaching notes and alternative routes through the text, additional exercises and further reading.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47989913747685,"sku":"NP9780470519653","price":51.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9780470519653.jpg?v=1761785888","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/products\/rational-decision-making-for-managers-isbn-9780470519653","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}