Probability For Dummies

Learn how to calculate your chances with easy-to-understand explanations of probability

Probability—the likelihood or chance of an event occurring—is an important branch of mathematics used in business and economics, finance, engineering, physics, and beyond. We see probability at work every day in areas such as weather forecasting, investing, and sports betting. Packed with real-life examples and mathematical problems with thorough explanations, Probability For Dummies helps students, professionals, and the everyday reader learn the basics. Topics include set theory, counting, permutations and combinations, random variables, conditional probability, joint distributions, conditional expectations, and probability modeling. Pass your probability class and play your cards right, with this accessible Dummies guide.

• Understand how probability impacts daily life
• Discover what counting rules are and how to use them
• Practice probability concepts with sample problems and explanations
• Get clear explanations of all the topics in your probability or statistics class

Probability For Dummies is the perfect Dummies guide for college students, amateur and professional gamblers, investors, insurance professionals, and anyone preparing for the actuarial exam.

Introduction 1

Part 1: The Certainty of Uncertainty: Probability Basics 5

Chapter 1: The Probability in Everyday Life 7

Chapter 2: Coming to Terms with Probability 17

Chapter 3: Picturing Probability: Venn Diagrams, Tree Diagrams, and Bayes’ Theorem 41

Part 2: Counting on Probability and Betting to Win 67

Chapter 4: Setting the Contingency Table with Probabilities 69

Chapter 5: Applying Counting Rules with Combinations and Permutations 79

Chapter 6: Against All Odds: Probability in Gaming 107

Part 3: From A to Binomial: Basic Probability Models 133

Chapter 7: Probability Distribution Basics 135

Chapter 8: Juggling Success and Failure with the Binomial Distribution 159

Chapter 9: The Normal (but Never Dull) Distribution 177

Chapter 10: Approximating a Binomial with a Normal Distribution 201

Chapter 11: Sampling Distributions and the Central Limit Theorem 213

Chapter 12: Estimating and Doing Hypothesis Tests with Probability 233

Part 4: Taking It Up a Notch: Advanced Probability Models 245

Chapter 13: Working with the Poisson (a Nonpoisonous) Distribution 247

Chapter 14: Covering All the Angles of the Geometric Distribution 263

Chapter 15: Making a Positive out of the Negative Binomial Distribution 273

Chapter 16: Remaining Calm about the Hypergeometric Distribution 287

Part 5: For the Hotshots: Continuous Probability Models 299

Chapter 17: Staying in Line with the Continuous Uniform Distribution 301

Chapter 18: The Exponential (and Its Relationship to Poisson) Exposed 315

Part 6: The Part of Tens 329

Chapter 19: Ten Steps to a Better Probability Grade 331

Chapter 20: Top Ten (or So) Probability Mistakes 341

Appendix: Tables for Reference 351

Index 361

Deborah J. Rumsey, PhD, is a Professor of Teaching Practice at The Ohio State University. Dr. Rumsey is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, and the author of several For Dummies titles, including Statistics For Dummies and Statistics Workbook For Dummies.

Increase your odds of conquering probability

You’ve got a very, very good chance of becoming a probability wiz, thanks to Probability For Dummies. This easy-to-follow guide teaches you to calculate the likelihood of all kinds of events. Start with the basics and work your way to contingency tables, combinations, and permutations. Learn how to calculate odds in gaming and gambling of all types. Plus, dive into the world of probability modeling. This book can help you boost your grade—or boost your earnings!

Inside…

• Defining probability
• Making sense of counting rules and betting odds
• Using the Central Limit Theorem
• Learning how probability is involved in decision-making
• Working with probability models, from basic to advanced
• Avoiding common mistakes