{"product_id":"inside-the-crystal-ball-isbn-9781118865071","title":"Inside the Crystal Ball","description":"\u003cb\u003eA practical guide to understanding economic forecasts\u003c\/b\u003e  \u003cp\u003eIn \u003ci\u003eInside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts\u003c\/i\u003e, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book:\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003e\n\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eProvides insights from Maury Harris,\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\n\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eDemonstrates \"best practices\" in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\n\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eEmphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment—a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks—in readable and illuminating detail.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\n\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eAddresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003ci\u003e.\u003c\/i\u003e Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\n\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eEvaluates major contemporary forecasting issues\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e—including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\n\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eBrings to life Harris's own experiences\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments xiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction: What You Need to Know about Forecasting xv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1 What Makes a Successful Forecaster? \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGrading Forecasters: How Many Pass? 2\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy It’s So Difficult to Be Prescient 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBad Forecasters: One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuccess Factors: Why Some Forecasters Excel 22\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDoes Experience Make Much of a Difference in Forecasting? 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2 The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e27\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eJudgment Counts More Than Math 28\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHabits of Successful Forecasters: How to Cultivate Them 34\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eJudging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics 43\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3 What Can We Learn from History? \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e51\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt’s Never Normal 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSome Key Characteristics of Business Cycles 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNational versus State Business Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats? 62\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eU.S. Monetary Policy and the Great Depression 65\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Great Inflation is Hard to Forget 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Great Moderation: Why It’s Still Relevant 73\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Was There Reduced Growth Volatility during the Great Moderation? 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4 When Forecasters Get It Wrong \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e79\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Granddaddy of Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression 80\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy 81\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Great Recession: Lessons Learned 85\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Productivity Miracle and the “New Economy” 86\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProductivity: Lessons Learned 88\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eY2K: The Disaster That Wasn’t 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Tech Crash Was Not Okay 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to Evaluate Them 96\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Recessions 99\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Recessions: Lessons Learned 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5 Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us? \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e105\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDoes the U.S. Government “Cook the Books” on Economic Data Reports? 106\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated? 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCan You Trust the Government’s Analyses of Its Policies’ Benefits? 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Beltway’s Multiplier Mania 120\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMultiplier Effects: How Real Are They? 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Government Statistics Keep “Changing Their Mind” 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLiving with Revisions 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6 Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow? \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e137\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFour Competing Schools of Economic Thought 139\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMinskyites: Should We Keep Listening to Them? 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect? 149\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSupply-Siders: Still a Role to Play? 156\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eKeynesians: Are They Just Too Old-Fashioned? 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7 The “New Normal”: Time to Curb Your Enthusiasm? \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e171\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMust Forecasters Restrain Multiyear U.S. Growth Assumptions? 173\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSupply-Side Forecasting: Labor, Capital, and Productivity 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAre Demographics Destiny? 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePivotal Productivity Projections 184\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8 Animal Spirits: The Intangibles Behind Business Spending \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e199\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnimal Spirits on Main Street and Wall Street 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCan We Base Forecasts on Confidence Indexes? 207\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBusiness Confidence and Inventory Building 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Do Animal Spirits Relate to Job Creation? 213\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConfidence and Capital Spending: Do They Move in Tandem? 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnimal Spirits and Capital Spending 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9 Forecasting Fickle Consumers \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e229\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMaking and Spending Money 230\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Do Americans Make Their Money? 231\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWill We Ever Start to Save More Money? 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Don’t Americans Save More? 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMore Wealth = Less Saving 240\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDo More Confident Consumers Save Less and Spend More? 248\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDoes Income Distribution Make a Difference for Saving and Consumer Spending? 250\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePent-Up Demand and Household Formation 252\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10 What Will It Cost to Live in the Future? \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e259\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhose Prices Are You Forecasting? 260\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHumans Cannot Live on Just Core Goods and Services 261\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSound Judgment Trumps Complexity in Forecasting Inflation 266\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eShould We Forecast Inflation by Money Supply or Phillips Curve? 271\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHitting Professor Phillips’ Curve 271\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Statistical Lesson from Reviewing Phillips Curve Research 280\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 11 Interest Rates: Forecasters’ Toughest Challenge \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e285\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFiguring the Fed 288\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFederal Open Market Committee 288\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat is the Fed’s “Reaction Function”? 290\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIs the Fed “Behind the Curve”? 293\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCan the Fed “Talk Down” Interest Rates? 294\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBond Yields: How Reliable Are “Rules of Thumb”? 294\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProfessor Bernanke’s Expectations-Oriented Explanation of Long-Term Interest Rate Determinants 297\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSupply and Demand Models of Interest Rate Determination 299\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhen Will OPEC, Japan, and China Stop Buying Our Bonds? 302\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Will Be the Legacy of QE for Interest Rates? 304\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat is the Effect of Fed MBS Purchases on Mortgage Rates? 309\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWill Projected Future Budget Deficits Raise Interest Rates? 309\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 12 Forecasting in Troubled Times \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e315\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNatural Disasters: The Economic Cons and Pros 316\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow to Respond to a Terrorist Attack 321\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Oil Price Shocks Don’t Shock So Much 325\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMarket Crashes: Why Investors Don’t Jump from Buildings Anymore 332\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContagion Effects: When China Catches Cold, Will the United States Sneeze? 334\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 13 How to Survive and Thrive in Forecasting \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e341\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSurviving: What to Do When Wrong 345\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHold or Fold? 348\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThriving: Ten Keys to a Successful Career 349\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Author 355\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 357\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eMAURY HARRIS\u003c\/b\u003e is a Man-aging Director and Chief Economist for the Americas for the UBS investment bank. Dr. Harris has led forecasting teams ranked as the most accurate in the country in four separate years over the past decade. In addition, he has been named numerous times to the Institutional Investor (II) All-America Research Team over the past two decades. Dr. Harris is a past President of the Forecaster's Club of New York. Prior to the UBS AG acquisition of PaineWebber Incorporated, he was the Chief Economist for PaineWebber. Before that, Dr. Harris worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and The Bank for International Settlements. Dr. Harris holds a PhD in eco-nomics from Columbia University, an MA in economics from Columbia University, and a BA in economics from the University of Texas, where he graduated Phi Beta Kappa. He is married with two children.   \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eINSIDE THE CRYSTAL BALL\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eDrawing on author Maury Harris' long and successful career in the field of economic forecasting,\u003ci\u003e Inside the Crystal Ball\u003c\/i\u003e offers an insider's hands-on guide that can improve almost anyone's ability to make long-range business and investment deci-sions. Filled with illustrative examples and real-world situations, the book explains how and why forecasting practitioners succeed, and sometimes fail, to correctly predict the future. Using the information and strategies outlined in this vital resource can bolster your ability to effectively communicate advice about the economic future to clients, bosses, colleagues, and anyone else. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFor the investor, \u003ci\u003eInside the Crystal Ball\u003c\/i\u003e is an insider's guide to demystifying the sometimes confusing and contradictory analysis of the future presented by pundits and professionals as support for investment decisions. Harris clearly illustrates how accurate forecasting is more about honing judgment of the underlying drivers than about proficiency in pure quantitative analysis—mathematics and statistics. In other words, a successful forecasting career is for all of us, not just the geeks. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe author reveals why some forecasters are more reliable than others and presents his successful approach to both the statistical and judgmental aspects of forecasting. Harris assesses the four competing schools of economic thought and sheds light on their strengths and weaknesses. The book also addresses long-standing forecasting challenges such as reliance on government information, shifting business sentiment and fickle consumers, as well as the newer challenges such as the \"New Normal\" and terrorism. In addition, Harris examines in detail the toughest challenge of all—the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eEverybody forecasts and listens to forecasters. Forecasting is an essential and unavoidable part of our lives. Let Maury Harris's \u003ci\u003eInside the Crystal Ball\u003c\/i\u003e give you the confidence to originate, communicate, and evaluate advice about the future more effectively.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47989432058085,"sku":"NP9781118865071","price":34.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781118865071.jpg?v=1761784078","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/products\/inside-the-crystal-ball-isbn-9781118865071","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}