{"product_id":"engineering-decision-making-and-risk-management-isbn-9781118919330","title":"Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management","description":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eIIE\/Joint Publishers Book of the Year Award 2016! \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eAwarded for ‘an outstanding published book that focuses on a facet of industrial engineering, improves education, or furthers the profession’.\u003c\/i\u003e \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eEngineering Decision Making and Risk Management e\u003c\/i\u003emphasizes practical issues and examples of decision making with applications in engineering design and management\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/b\u003eFeaturing a blend of theoretical and analytical aspects, this book presents multiple perspectives on decision making to better understand and improve risk management processes and decision-making systems.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eEngineering Decision Making and Risk Management\u003c\/i\u003e uniquely presents and discusses three perspectives on decision making: problem solving, the decision-making process, and decision-making systems. The author highlights formal techniques for group decision making and game theory and includes numerical examples to compare and contrast different quantitative techniques. The importance of initially selecting the most appropriate decision-making process is emphasized through practical examples and applications that illustrate a variety of useful processes. Presenting an approach for modeling and improving decision-making systems, \u003ci\u003eEngineering Decision Making and Risk Management\u003c\/i\u003e also features:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eTheoretically sound and practical tools for decision making under uncertainty, multi-criteria decision making, group decision making, the value of information, and risk management\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003ePractical examples from both historical and current events that illustrate both good and bad decision making and risk management processes\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eEnd-of-chapter exercises for readers to apply specific learning objectives and practice relevant skills\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eA supplementary website with instructional support material, including worked solutions to the exercises, lesson plans, in-class activities, slides, and spreadsheets\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cbr\u003eAn excellent textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate students, \u003ci\u003eEngineering Decision Making and Risk Management\u003c\/i\u003e is appropriate for courses on decision analysis, decision making, and risk management within the fields of engineering design, operations research, business and management science, and industrial and systems engineering. The book is also an ideal reference for academics and practitioners in business and management science, operations research, engineering design, systems engineering, applied mathematics, and statistics. \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePreface xi\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 Introduction to Engineering Decision Making 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1 Introduction 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2 Decision Making in Engineering Practice 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.3 Decision Making and Optimization 5\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.4 Decision Making and Problem Solving 6\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.5 Decision Making and Risk Management 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.6 Problems in Decision Making 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.7 The Value of Improving Decision Making 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.8 Perspectives on Decision Making 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 10\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 12\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 Decision-Making Fundamentals 15\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1 Decision Characteristics 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2 Objectives in Decision Making 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3 Influence Diagrams 22\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.4 Rationality 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.5 Dominance 29\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.6 Choice Strategies 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.7 Making Tradeoffs 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.8 Reframing the Decision 34\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.9 Risk Acceptance 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.10 Measurement Scales 37\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 46\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 Multicriteria Decision Making 51\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1 Pugh Concept Selection Method 54\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2 Analytic Hierarchy Process 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3 Multiattribute Utility Theory 62\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4 Conjoint Analysis 67\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.5 Value of a Statistical Life 70\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6 Compensation 71\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.7 The Impact of Changing Weights 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 81\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Group Decision Making 85\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.1 Ranking 88\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2 Scoring and Majority Judgment 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3 Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem 95\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 96\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 99\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Decision Making Under Uncertainty 101\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1 Types of Uncertainties 103\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2 Assessing a Subjective Probability 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3 Imprecise Probabilities 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4 Cumulative Risk Profile and Dominance 108\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5 Decision Trees: Modeling 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.6 Decision Trees: Determining Expected Values 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.7 Sequential Decision Making 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.8 Modeling Risk Aversion 115\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.9 Robustness 120\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.10 Uncertainty Propagation: Sensitivity Analysis 125\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.11 Uncertainty Propagation: Method of Moments 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.12 Uncertainty Propagation: Monte Carlo Simulation 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 138\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 Game Theory 141\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1 Game Theory Basics 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2 Zero-Sum Games 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3 Optimal Mixed Strategies for Zero-Sum Games 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4 The Minimax Theorem 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5 Resource Allocation Games 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.6 Mixed Motive Games 148\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.7 Bidding 151\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.8 Stackelberg Games 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 153\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7 Decision-Making Processes 161\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1 Decision-Making Contexts 164\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2 Technical Knowledge and Problem Consensus 165\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.3 Optimization: Search and Evaluation 169\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4 Diagnosing Risk Decision Situations 170\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5 Values and Ethics 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.6 Systematic Decision-Making Processes 172\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.7 The Decision-Making Cycle 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.8 The Analytic-Deliberative Process 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.9 Concept Selection 176\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.10 Decision Calculus 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.11 Recognition-Primed Decision Making 178\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.12 Heuristics 178\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.13 Unconscious Decision Making 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.14 Search 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.15 Types of Search in Practice 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.16 Secretary Problem 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.17 Composite Decisions 187\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.18 Separation 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.19 Product Development Processes 194\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 200\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8 The Value of Information 207\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.1 The Expected Value of Perfect Information 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2 The Expected Value of Imperfect Information 214\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3 Experimentation to Reduce Ambiguity 221\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4 Experimentation to Compare Alternatives 225\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5 Experimentation to Compare Alternatives with Multiple Attributes 228\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 232\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9 Risk Management 239\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.1 Risk Management Process 244\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2 Potential Problem Analysis 247\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3 Risk Management Guide for DOD Acquisition 252\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4 Risk Management at NASA 253\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5 Precursors 254\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6 Warnings 257\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.7 Risk Communication 259\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.8 Managing the Risk of a Bad Decision 265\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.9 Learning from Failures 271\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.10 Transforming Failure Information 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 276\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 282\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e10 Decision-Making Systems 289\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.1 Introduction to Decision-Making Systems 291\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2 Mechanisms of Organization Influence 292\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3 Roles in Decision-Making Systems 293\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4 Information Flow 296\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.5 The Structure of Decision-Making Systems 297\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6 Product Development Organizations 298\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.7 Information Flow in Product Development 299\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.8 The Design Factory 302\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 302\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 303\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e11 Modeling and Improving Decision-Making Systems 307\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.1 Modeling Decision-Making Systems 309\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2 Rich Pictures 310\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3 Swimlanes 311\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.4 Root Definitions 313\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.5 Conceptual Models 315\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.6 Models of Product Development Organizations 317\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.7 Improving Decision-Making Systems 317\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.8 An Integrative Strategy 319\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 325\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 326\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eIndex 331\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cb\u003eJeffrey W. Herrmann, PhD,\u003c\/b\u003e is Associate Professor at the University of Maryland, where he holds a joint appointment with the Department of Mechanical Engineering and the Institute for Systems Research. A member of the Institute of Industrial Engineers, the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, and the American Society for Engineering Education, Dr. Herrmann’s research interests include production scheduling, decision making in product development, and public health preparedness planning.  \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eEmphasizes practical issues and examples of decision making with applications in engineering design and management\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003c\/b\u003eFeaturing a blend of theoretical and analytical aspects, \u003ci\u003eEngineering Decision Making and Risk Management\u003c\/i\u003e presents multiple perspectives on decision making to better understand and improve risk management processes and decision-making systems.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003ci\u003eEngineering Decision Making and Risk Management\u003c\/i\u003e uniquely presents and discusses three perspectives on decision making: problem solving, the decision-making process, and decision-making systems. The author highlights formal techniques for group decision making and game theory and includes numerical examples to compare and contrast different quantitative techniques. The importance of initially selecting the most appropriate decision-making process is emphasized through practical examples and applications that illustrate a variety of useful processes. Presenting an approach for modeling and improving decision-making systems, \u003ci\u003eEngineering Decision Making and Risk Management\u003c\/i\u003e also features:\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eTheoretically sound and practical tools for decision making under uncertainty, multi-criteria decision making, group decision making, the value of information, and risk management\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003ePractical examples from both historical and current events that illustrate both good and bad decision making and risk management processes\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eEnd-of-chapter exercises for readers to apply specific learning objectives and practice relevant skills\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eA supplementary website with instructional support material, including worked solutions to the exercises, lesson plans, in-class activities, slides, and spreadsheets\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cbr\u003e An excellent textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate students, \u003ci\u003eEngineering Decision Making and Risk Management\u003c\/i\u003e is appropriate for courses on decision analysis, decision making, and risk management within the fields of engineering design, operations research, business and management science, and industrial and systems engineering. The book is also an ideal reference for academics and practitioners in business and management science, operations research, engineering design, systems engineering, applied mathematics, and statistics.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003eJeffrey W. Herrmann, PhD,\u003c\/b\u003e is Associate Professor at the University of Maryland, where he holds a joint appointment with the Department of Mechanical Engineering and the Institute for Systems Research. A member of the Institute of Industrial Engineers, the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, and the American Society for Engineering Education, Dr. Herrmann’s research interests include production scheduling, decision making in product development, and public health preparedness planning.","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47989136425189,"sku":"NP9781118919330","price":101.5,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781118919330.jpg?v=1761782943","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/products\/engineering-decision-making-and-risk-management-isbn-9781118919330","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}