{"product_id":"economic-modeling-in-the-post-great-recession-era-isbn-9781119349839","title":"Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era","description":"\u003cb\u003eReality-based modeling for today's unique economic recovery\u003c\/b\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eEconomic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era\u003c\/i\u003e presents a more realistic approach to modeling, using direct statistical applications to address the characteristics and trends central to current market behaviors. This book's unique focus on the \u003ci\u003ereality\u003c\/i\u003e of today's markets makes it an invaluable resource for students and practitioners seeking a comprehensive guide to more accurate forecasting. While most books treat the economy as if it were in a vacuum, building models around idealized or perception-biased behaviors, this book deals with the economy as it currently stands—in a state of recovery, limited by financial constraints, imperfect information, and lags and disparities in price movements. The authors identify how these characteristics impact various markets' behaviors, and quantify those behaviors using SAS as the primary statistical tool.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eToday's economy bears a number of unique attributes that usual modeling methods fail to consider. This book describes how to approach modeling based on real-world, observable data in order to make better-informed decisions in today's markets.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eDiscover the three economic characteristics with the greatest impact on various markets\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eCreate economic models that mirror the current post-recession reality\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eAdopt statistical methods that identify and adapt to structural breaks and lags\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eFactor real-world imperfections into modeling for more accurate forecasting\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe past few years have shown a clear demarcation between policymakers' forecasts and actual outcomes. As the dust settles on the Great Recession, after-effects linger—and impact our current recovery in ways that diverge from past experience and theoretical expectations. \u003ci\u003eEconomic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era\u003c\/i\u003e provides comprehensive guidance grounded in reality for today's economic decision-makers.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface\/Justification xiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments xxi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1 Setting the Context 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Problem with Uncritical Assumptions in a Less-Than-Perfect Economy 2\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Problem with Models in an Imperfect Economy 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFour Characteristics of a Less-Than-Perfect Economy 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEconomic Policy Inconsistencies—The Parable of Strange Bedfellows 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2 Dynamic Adjustment in an Economy: Frictions Matter 15\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantifying Frictions: Is the Long-Run Average a Useful Guide for the Future? 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModeling Dynamic Adjustment due to Economic Frictions: Decision Making in an Evolving World 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDynamic Economic Adjustment: An Evolution unto Itself 67\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Case for the Multiple Markets: 1983–2008 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Labor Market: 1983–2008 70\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3 Information: Past Imperfect, Present Incomplete, Future Uncertain 73\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStory Behind the Numbers 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 103\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4 Price Adjustment and Search for Equilibrium 105\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Barriers Are There to Perfectly Flexible Prices? 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImplications 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFinding Dynamic Adjustment in the Data 116\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5 Business Investment: This Time Is Different 123\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDrivers of Business Spending 125\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePutting It All Together: Explaining Slow Recovery in Capital Investment 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6 Corporate Profits: Reward, Incentive, and That Standard of Living 135\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction: Profits as Essential Partner 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Role of Profits in the Economic Cycle: Five Drivers 137\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Role of Profits: Incentives and Rewards 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConcluding Remarks: Modeling Profits 167\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7 Labor Market Evolution: Implications for Private-Sector and Public-Policy Decision Makers 169\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePart I: Labor Market Imperfections 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePart II: Heterogeneity in the Labor Market 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePart III: How Do Secular Labor Market Trends Impact Economic Policy? 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8 Inflation: When What You Get Isn’t What You Expect 205\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Is Inflation? 207\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Does Inflation Matter? 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Determines Inflation? 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInflation after the Great Recession 219\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eApplication: Predicting if Central Banks Can Achieve Price Stability 230\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9 Interest Rates and Credit: Capital Markets in the Post–Great Recession World 235\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImperfect Guidance in an Uncertain World 236\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Look at Actual History over the Long Run 247\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCredit and Administered Rates 250\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImperfect Information and Credit 255\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion: Shift from Historical Benchmarks 280\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10 Three-Dimensional Checkers: Open Economy, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates 281\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNewton’s Third Law 282\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroducing a New Price to the Analysis: The Role of Exchange Rates 289\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThree-Dimensional Checkers on an International Playing Field 295\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Perfect Model in an Imperfect World 298\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConcluding Remarks: Future Looks Different 330\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 11 Assessing Economic Policy in an Imperfect Economy 331\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGeneralized Policy Model 333\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRules and Reputation: Beyond Economic Benchmarks 338\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConfronting Our Three Market Imperfections 340\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEconomic Policy in the Context of an Imperfect Economy 359\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Authors 361\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 363\u003c\/p\u003e   \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eJOHN E. SILVIA\u003c\/b\u003e is a managing director and the chief economist for Wells Fargo. Previously he worked on Capitol Hill as senior economist for the U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee and chief economist for the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee.  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAZHAR IQBAL\u003c\/b\u003e is director and econometrician at Wells Fargo Securities.  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eSARAH WATT HOUSE\u003c\/b\u003e is vice president of Wells Fargo Securities.     \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eSince the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, policymakers have applied many strategies to return the economy back to \"normal.\" However, seven years later, those tactics have resulted in different outcomes, and we're still in an economic slump. \u003ci\u003eEconomic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era\u003c\/i\u003e offers a data-driven way forward to take off the rose-colored glasses, see the financial landscape for what it is, and make strategic decisions based on those absolute conditions.  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWritten by three thought leaders at Wells Fargo, this refreshing guide cuts through the political noise and takes a quantitative look at four characteristics currently differentiating the real economy from the idealized conditions used in stylized financial models. By applying a variety of statistical methods, using SAS as the primary tool, the authorial team discusses how these imperfections impact six aspects of the economy, including the labor market, so decision-makers can understand and effectively operate based on true economic factors. Forget about conventional wisdom and what you've heard from the mainstream media—get the insider's look at:  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow this cycle in labor is far different from the perfect competition assumption central to many economic models\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe fallout when economic shock sends price adjustments to a new equilibrium in a slow and indirect move\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe variety of ways patterns from prior cycles have changed, especially surrounding growth, inflation, and interest rates\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e  \u003cp\u003eAs the dust settles from the onslaught of recovery efforts, the data clearly reveals what didn't work, and now business leaders and other decision-makers must adapt to operating under severe adjustments, imperfect information, lags in price movement, and policy uncertainty.  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eEconomic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era\u003c\/i\u003e is your dependable guide to seeing through the fog to correctly navigate the real landscape.     \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePRAISE FOR ECONOMIC MODELING \u003ci\u003ein the\u003c\/i\u003e POST GREAT RECESSION ERA\u003c\/b\u003e  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"The years since the end of the Great Recession have been an era of disappointing economic performance in which the long-awaited (and long-expected) return to pre-recession trends has been slow to materialize. The authors of this fine new book develop the theme that the Great Recession marks a structural break that has had long-lasting effects on the trend paths of the economy and then explain and demonstrate how to construct useful econometric models that account for this new reality. Highly recommended!\"\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e—Rob Roy McGregor,\u003c\/b\u003e Professor of Economics, Belk College of Business,  UNC Charlotte  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"John, Azhar, and Sarah's book combines a practical examination of an imperfect economy with a focus on current issues of jobs, inflation, and credit markets. The book recognizes structural change in the 21st century economy and does not engage in wishful thinking hoping for a return to a simpler, idealized economic landscape. This is the type of thinking we need in the post–Great Recession era.\"\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e—Larry Kudlow,\u003c\/b\u003e \u003ci\u003eThe Larry Kudlow Show,\u003c\/i\u003e Kudlow \u0026amp; Co., LLC  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"It has been well-documented that nobody has been more right about the economy since the Great Recession began than John Silvia. Anyone who wants to understand what has been going on, model it, or think about how to improve it, needs to read this book.\"\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e—Kevin Hassett,\u003c\/b\u003e Director of Economic Policy Studies, AEI\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47989101592805,"sku":"NP9781119349839","price":75.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781119349839.jpg?v=1761782800","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/products\/economic-modeling-in-the-post-great-recession-era-isbn-9781119349839","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}