Climate Change: What The Science Tells Us, 2e Custom Color Edition

This book introduces climate change fundamentals and essential concepts that reveal the extent of the damage, the impacts felt around the globe, and the innovation and leadership it will take to bring an end to the status quo. Emphasizing peer-reviewed literature, this text details the impact of climate change on land and sea, the water cycle, human communities, the weather, and humanity's collective future. Coverage of greenhouse gases, oceanic and atmospheric processes, Pleistocene and Holocene paleoclimate, sea levels, and other fundamental topics provide a deep understanding of key mechanisms, while discussion of extreme weather, economic impacts, and resource scarcity reveals how climate change is already impacting people's lives - and will continue to do so at an increasing rate for the foreseeable future.

Preface ix

1 Evidence of Climate Change 1

Chapter Summary 1

Introduction 2

The Greenhouse Effect 3

Early Climate Science 3

Climate Change in Every Corner of Our Lives 5

Climate Change is Real and it is Dangerous 6

Box 1.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Ice Ages and Interglacials 7

Earth Resources Are More Depleted Every Day 8

National Academy of Sciences 9

Climate Change Evidence 10

The Earth System is Changing 12

Irreversible Change 12

Observed Impacts 13

U.S. Global Change Research Program 18

Reliable Sources of Climate Change Information 19

Climate Data 20

Media 20

Scientific Peer Review 20

Climate Literacy 21

IPCC Assessments 21

Climate Change Impacts in the United States 22

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 23

Box 1.2 Spotlight on Climate Change: COP21 24

How Unusual is the Present Warming? 25

Unprecedented Warming 25

Surface Temperature 26

Sensors 27

Excess Heat 27

Human Fingerprints on Climate 27

A Consistent Picture Emerges 31

Optimism about Climate Change? 32

Box 1.3 Spotlight on Climate Change: Community Sustainability and Resilience 33

Animations and Videos 35

Comprehension Questions 35

Thinking Critically 36

Activities 36

Key Terms 36

2 Radiative Equilibrium 37

Chapter Summary 37

Earth’s Energy Budget 38

Characteristics of Radiation 38

Sunlight 38

Heat Engine 39

Radiative Equilibrium 40

Energy Entering the Climate System 40

Surface Temperature 41

Natural Greenhouse Effect 42

Surface Energy Budget 43

Atmospheric Energy Budget 44

Radiative Forcing 45

Sunspots 47

Anthropogenic Forcing 49

Global Warming Potential 49

Assigning Radiation Values to Human Behavior 50

Radiative Forcing That Promotes Cooling 52

Greenhouse Gases 53

Water Vapor as a Feedback 53

Clouds 53

Emissions 54

Carbon Dioxide (CO₂) 54

Methane (CH4) 59

Box 2.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis 61

Tropospheric Ozone (O3) 61

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 62

Fluorinated Gases 62

Water Vapor (H2O) 64

Aerosols 65

Emissions by Country 67

Animations and Videos 67

Climate Change Essay 68

Comprehension Questions 68

Thinking Critically 68

Activities 68

Key Terms 69

3 The Climate System 70

Chapter Summary 70

Weather and Climate 71

The Atmosphere 71

Layers of the Atmosphere 71

General Circulation of the Atmosphere 72

The Coriolis Force 73

The Hadley Cell 73

The Polar Cell and the Farrel Cell 73

How Global Circulation Affects Climate 73

Climate Zones 74

Climate Phenomena 75

Köppen–Trewartha Climate Zones 75

Tropical Climate 75

Dry Climate 77

Subtropical Climate 79

Temperate and Continental Climate 79

Box 3.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Desertification Drives Tides of Humanity 80

Boreal Climate 82

Polar Climate 82

High-Altitude Climate 85

Box 3.2 Spotlight on Climate Change: Arctic Meltdown and Dangerous Weather 85

Jet Stream 88

Jet Meanders and Extreme Weather 88

Ocean Currents Carry Heat 90

Ocean Circulation 90

Surface Currents 91

Deep Circulation 92

Global Warming Is Changing the Ocean 92

Warming Oceans 93

Phytoplankton 94

Declining Oxygen Content 96

Acidifying Oceans 97

Deadly Trio 100

Anoxia 100

Plastic 100

Warming and Acidification 100

Outlook 101

Animations and Videos 102

Ocean Threats 102

Comprehension Questions 102

Thinking Critically 102

Activities 103

Key Terms 103

4 Are Humans the Cause? 104

Chapter Summary 104

Mitigating Global Warming Requires Managing Carbon 105

The Carbon Cycle 105

Geologic Carbon Cycle 106

Biological Carbon Cycle 106

The Carbon Budget 108

The Imbalance of the Carbon Cycle and Its Impact on Climate Change 110

What Temperature Has Carbon Emissions Committed Us To? 111

Box 4.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecast to Continue Growing 112

Paleoclimate 114

Is Global Warming Part of a Natural Climate Cycle? 115

Box 4.2 Spotlight on Climate Change: The Uplift Weathering Hypothesis 116

Climate Proxies 119

Paleoclimate Patterns 121

Orbital Parameters 125

Insolation 125

First Orbital Parameter: Eccentricity 125

Second Orbital Parameter: Obliquity 126

Third Orbital Parameter: Precession 126

Short, Cool Summers 126

The Important Role of Climate Feedbacks 128

Why Warming Preceded CO2 Increase at the End of the Ice Age 128

Rapid Climate Change: The Younger Dryas 129

The Conveyor Belt Hypothesis 129

Slowing of AMOC 130

Hansen et al. 132

Feedback Examples 133

Dansgaard–Oeschger Events 134

Bipolar Seesaw 135

Is Global Warming Caused by the Sun? 136

Did Global Warming End After 1998? 137

Do Scientists Disagree on Global Warming? 140

Are Climate Data Faulty? 141

Is Today’s Warming Simply a Repeat of the Recent Past? 142

Medieval Climate Anomaly 142

Eemian Interglacial 143

In Conclusion 145

Animations and Videos 146

Comprehension Questions 146

Thinking Critically 146

Activities 147

Key Terms 147

5 Sea-Level Rise 148

Chapter Summary 148

Rate of Sea-Level Rise 150

How Can I Keep Track of the Changing Rate of Global Sea-Level Rise? 150

Satellite Altimetry 151

El Niño Southern Oscillation 153

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 155

Tide Gauges 158

Tide Gauge Studies 159

Coastal Sediment Studies 163

Sea-Level Components 164

Ocean Warming 165

Melting Ice 168

Antarctica 169

Greenland 171

Alpine Glaciers and Ice Caps 173

Groundwater 174

Future Commitment to Sea-Level Rise 175

Box 5.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Changes in the Cryosphere 176

Sea-Level Impacts 176

End of the Century 176

Impact Analysis 177

Hawaiian Islands 178

Storm Surge 178

Groundwater Inundation 179

Coastal Erosion 181

Seasonal High Waves 182

Exposed Assets 182

Adapting to Sea-Level Rise 183

SLR Refugees 185

How High? 185

Modeling Issues 186

Consensus 189

The Eemian Analogue and a Warning of Our Future 190

Conclusion 190

Animations and Videos 191

Comprehension Questions 191

Thinking Critically 191

Activities 192

Key Terms 192

6 Modeling Climate 193

Chapter Summary 193

Climate Models 194

General Circulation Models 196

Modeling Concept 198

Parameterization 198

Model Resolution 199

Representing the Climate System 200

Model Ensembles 201

Box 6.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Research Groups that Model Climate 202

Communicating Uncertainty 203

Regional Projections 203

Historical Accuracy; No Guarantee of Future Success 205

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—Assessment Report 5 205

IPCC Working Groups 206

IPCC Findings 206

Existing Impacts 206

Future Impacts 206

Reacting to Climate Change 207

CMIP—The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 208

Coherence with Observed Changes 209

Representative Concentration Pathways— RCPs 210

Projected Climate in AR5 210

Future Global and Regional Climate Change 211

Temperature 211

Water Cycle 211

Air Quality 213

Ocean 213

Cryosphere 213

Sea Level 213

Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles 214

Climate Stabilization, Climate Change Commitment and Irreversibility 214

Conclusion 215

Box 6.2 Spotlight on Climate Change: Reasons for Concern Regarding Climate Change 215

Additional Considerations 216

If We Can’t Predict Weather, How Can We Predict Climate? 217

Rapid Warming by Midcentury 218

Variability in the Pacific 218

How Will ENSO Change as the World Warms? 220

How Will Hadley Circulation Change as the World Becomes Warmer? 220

Box 6.3 Spotlight on Climate Change: Record carbon dioxide levels in 2015 221

Aerosols 222

Types of Aerosols 222

Impact of Aerosols on Hadley Circulation 224

Ice–Albedo Feedback 228

Clouds 230

Solar Radiation 233

Concluding Thoughts 234

Animations and Videos 235

Comprehension Questions 236

Thinking Critically 236

Activities 236

Key Terms 237

7 Warming Impacts 238

Chapter Summary 238

Air Temperature and Precipitation Patterns in the United States 239

Air Temperature 240

Extreme Temperatures 241

Projected Temperature 242

Precipitation 242

Extreme Rain 242

Snowfall 242

Projections 243

Climate Impacts to Planning Sectors 243

Water Resources 244

Transportation 247

Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge 247

Rainfall Intensity 248

Extreme Heat 248

Drought 248

Storminess 249

Ecosystems 250

Health 250

Changing Conditions 250

Species Shifts 251

Wildfire 252

Marine Systems 253

Severe Effects 253

Agriculture 253

Impacts on Crops 253

Effects on Farm Animals 254

Society 255

Population Growth 255

Box 7.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Surprises in the Climate System 256

Urban Populations 258

Energy Supply and Use 259

U.S. Emissions 259

Extreme Events 260

Shifting U.S. Populations 261

Human Health 261

Climate Impacts to Geographic Regions 263

Northeast Region 264

Southeast and Caribbean Region 264

Midwest Region 266

Great Plains Region 268

Southwest Region 268

Northwest Region 268

Alaska 270

Hawai‘i and Pacific Islands 271

Coastal Regions 271

Overall 274

Northeast 274

Northwest 274

Southeast 274

Midwest 275

Southwest 275

Conclusion 275

Animations and Video 275

Comprehension Questions 275

Thinking Critically 275

Activities 276

Key Terms 276

8 Dangerous Climate 277

Chapter Summary 277

Extreme Weather 278

Event History 278

2017 280

Attribution 281

Global Warming Attribution 281

Single Event Attribution 282

Extreme Rain 282

U.S. Climate Change Science Program 283

Temperature 284

Analysis of 2016 284

Daily Extremes 285

Probabilities 285

Extending the Record of Extreme Weather 286

Drought 286

Seasonal Patterns 287

Regional Drought 287

Drought Severity 287

Box 8.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Syria and the Rise of European Demagogues 289

Wildfire 290

Influence of Climate Change 290

Convergence of Factors 291

Positive Feedback 291

Large Fires 291

Megafires 291

Fire Season Cost 292

Human Health 293

Ecosystem Impacts 293

Variety of Impacts 293

Plant Physiology 293

Multiple Stressors 293

Range Shifts 294

Growing Season 294

Extinction 294

Ecological Sensitivity 295

Marine Ecosystems 295

Sea Surface Temperature 295

Anoxia 295

Bleaching 296

Ocean Acidity 297

Climate Sensitivity 299

Estimating Climate Sensitivity 300

AR4 and AR5 300

Paleoclimate 300

Slow Mode Climate Change 300

Reconciling Sensitivity 301

Climate Sensitivity Ranges 302

Best-Fit Models 303

On the Other Hand 304

Carbon Trends and Implications 305

Paris Accord 305

The Carbon Budget 306

1.5 Degree Celsius Very Unlikely 306

Carbon Trends 308

Falling Short 309

Mitigation 310

Human Vulnerability 310

Violence 311

Food Impacts 311

Water Cycle Impacts 311

Dangerous Climate 312

Political Turmoil 312

No More Carbon Dioxide? 313

Global Energy Demand 313

2017, Energy Demand 313

Energy Outlook 314

Aerosols 315

Negative Emissions 315

Recent Studies 315

Earth When It Is 3°C Warmer 316

Sixth Mass Extinction 316

Biogeochemical Crisis 317

Warning to Humanity 317

The Socio-Economic Framework of All Humanity Is at Risk 318

Heat Stress 319

Food 319

Drought, Water Scarcity 320

Sea-Level Rise 322

Out of Control Climate 324

Ominous Signs 325

False Hope 325

Paris 326

Critical Point 326

Animations and Videos 327

Comprehension Questions 327

Thinking Critically 327

Activities 328

Key Terms 328

Key Term Glossary 329

Index 337