Atomic Backfires

A sobering edited volume on how efforts to reduce nuclear weapons dangers may sometimes wind up exacerbating them.

The existential risks posed to the world by nuclear weapons are growing. Efforts to halt nuclear proliferation, manage crises, promote arms control, and build alliances are all considered fundamental to reducing the likelihood of nuclear catastrophe. Yet, no tool is guaranteed to succeed and some may even have unanticipated, counterproductive consequences for international security.

In a field fixated on finding solutions, Atomic Backfires, edited by Stephen Herzog, Giles David Arceneaux, and Ariel F. W. Petrovics, provocatively takes the opposite tack. An impressive group of contributors calls for close scrutiny of “standard operating procedures” in nuclear politics. They warn decision makers, scholars, and students not to lose sight of the drivers and often calamitous effects of failed nuclear policies. The volume’s authors aim to provide insights for navigating the difficult nuclear choices pursued in Washington, D.C., and other capitals around the globe.

Contributors
David M. Allison, Giles David Arceneaux, Sarah Bidgood, Tyler Bowen, James Cameron, Hyun-Binn Cho, Eliza Gheorghe, Rebecca Davis Gibbons, Stephen Herzog, Ulrich Kühn, Ariel F. W. Petrovics, Daniel Salisbury, Lauren Sukin, Kristin Ven Bruusgaard.ENDORSEMENTS

“Atomic Backfires is the best of policy-relevant research from an all-star cast of the best new minds in the field. Its contributors use history and theory to identify past policy failures in order to avoid future mistakes in our dangerous new nuclear world.”
—Vipin Narang, Frank Stanton Professor of Nuclear Security and Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

“Atomic Backfires offers provocative insights into the pitfalls of nuclear statecraft. As the challenges of the current nuclear age are becoming increasingly complex, and the stakes remain high, these lessons learned from past experiences could not be more timely.”
—Målfrid Braut-Hegghammer, Professor of War Studies, King’s College London

“The impressive analyses in Atomic Backfires demonstrate that the road to hell in nuclear policy—from negotiating arms control to implementing economic sanctions to issuing military threats—is sometimes paved with good intentions. Leaders and analysts ignore these findings at their own peril.”
—Keir Lieber, Professor of Foreign Service and Government, Georgetown University“This exciting new book could not come at a more important time as we confront an unprecedented nuclear age. An all-star cast of the best new minds in the field tackle deterrence, extended deterrence, proliferation, and arms control challenges and identify unintended consequences or blowback from our previous approaches and policy solutions to these problems. Atomic Backfires is the best of policy-relevant research: using history and theory in the nuclear era to identify past policy mistakes, so that we can avoid future mistakes as we manage this dangerous new nuclear world.”
—Vipin Narang, Frank Stanton Professor of Nuclear Security and Political Science; Director, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for Nuclear Security Policy

“Atomic Backfires offers provocative new insights into the perils and pitfalls of nuclear statecraft. The authors provide nuanced arguments regarding difficult tradeoffs and unintended consequences across the nuclear age, including present and future challenges. They offer valuable new evidence and perspectives on a series of choices whose consequences remain hotly debated among scholars, but are rarely revisited by the states in question. As the challenges of the present nuclear age are becoming increasingly complex, and the stakes remain high, these insights and lessons learned from past experiences could not be more timely.”
—Målfrid Braut-Hegghammer, Professor of War Studies, King’s College London

“The dangers of nuclear conflict and proliferation once again loom large in international affairs, with U.S. policymakers in particular facing growing tensions with adversaries, rivals, and allies alike. These leaders should consider that the road to hell is sometimes paved with good intentions. The impressive set of analyses in Atomic Backfires demonstrates that many previous approaches—from negotiating arms control treaties to implementing economic sanctions to issuing military threats—have led to counterproductive consequences. Leaders and analysts ignore this book’s findings at their own peril.”
—Keir Lieber, Professor of Foreign Service and Government, Georgetown UniversityStephen Herzog is Professor of Practice at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. He is also Associate of the Project on Managing the Atom at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

Giles David Arceneaux is Assistant Professor at the Center for National Security and Foreign Affairs of the Howard H. Baker Jr. School for Public Policy and Public Affairs at the University of Tennessee.

Ariel F. W. Petrovics is Assistant Research Scholar at the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland of the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. She is also Non-Resident Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.