{"product_id":"any-happy-returns-isbn-9781394210350","title":"Any Happy Returns","description":"\u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003e“Clear and well-written, and can be seen as a helpful primer on a wide range of issues independent of its main theses” \u003c\/i\u003e– The Society of Professional Economists - Reading Room\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e“An invaluable read for economic history buffs, the book also offers hints on how to invest wisely that will appeal to other readers too.”\u003c\/b\u003e\u003ci\u003e– Financial Times\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e‘An in-depth but accessible analysis of the complex factors that impact structural changes in financial markets and investor opportunities.’\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn \u003ci\u003eAny Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets,\u003c\/i\u003e celebrated author Peter C. Oppenheimer delivers his much-anticipated follow-up to The Long Good Buy. The book discusses how structural changes in macroeconomic drivers, geopolitics, government policy and social attitudes all combine to drive secular super cycles that help to explain investor returns.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe author focuses on what he calls the Post-Modern Cycle, what it's likely to look like, how it will unfold and what investors should focus on. You'll also find:\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eAn introduction to the history of cycles and structural ‘Super Cycles’, and what has driven them.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eA detailed analysis of Super Cycles since 1945, including the Post-War Boom, the Great Moderation, the post Global Financial Crisis and Pandemic era.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe specific drivers of the emerging Post-Modern Cycle amid a higher cost of capital, bigger governments, more proactive industrial policy, greater regulation, and less globalisation.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eOppenheimer focuses on the developments in technology and AI, and on efforts to de-carbonise economies, and how these might impact financial market returns and opportunities.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn invaluable resource for students of economic and financial history, and for investors, \u003ci\u003eAny Happy Returns\u003c\/i\u003e is essential reading for anyone seeking insights into upcoming market conditions and returns.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface xvii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgements xxi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Author xxv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1: An Introduction to Cycles and Secular Trends 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRepeating Cycles 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Social and Political Cycle 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Business Cycle 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles in Financial Markets 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePsychology and Financial Market Super Cycles 11\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart I: Structural Trends and Market Super Cycles 19\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2: Equity Cycles and Their Drivers 21\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Four Phases of the Equity Cycle 22\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1. Despair 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. Hope 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3. Growth 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4. Optimism 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Drivers of the Four Phases 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Cycle and Bear Markets 28\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentifying the Transition from Bear Market to Bull Market 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValuations and the Market Inflection 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGrowth and the Market Inflection 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCombining Growth and Valuation as a Signal 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInflation, Interest Rates and the Market Inflection 37\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCombining Growth and Interest Rates 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3: Super Cycles and Their Drivers 41\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles in Economic Activity 42\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Modern Era: Growth from the 1820s 47\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles in Inflation 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles in Interest Rates 53\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles and Government Debt 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles in Inequality 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles in Financial Markets 59\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles in Equities 63\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructural upswings\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1. 1949–1968: Post-World War II Boom 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. 1982–2000: The Modern Cycle 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3. 2009–2020: The Post-Financial-Crisis Cycle and Zero Interest Rates 67\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e‘Fat and Flat’ super cycles\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1. 1968–1982: Inflation and Low Returns 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. 2000–2009: Bubbles and Troubles 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart II: Analysing Post-war Super Cycles 71\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4: 1949–1968: Post-World War II Boom 73\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInternational Agreements and Falling Risk Premia 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStrong Economic Growth 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTechnological Innovation 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLow and Stable Real Interest Rates 81\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Boom in World Trade 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Baby Boom 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Consumer and Credit Boom 85\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll-Consuming Consumerism 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5: 1968–1982: Inflation and Low Returns 91\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Lost Decade for Investors 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Bubble Before the Bust 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHigh Interest Rates and Low Growth 95\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Collapse of Bretton Woods 96\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSocial Unrest and Strikes 100\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCollapsing Trade, Increased Protectionism and Regulation 104\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIncreased Public Spending, Lower Margins 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe End of the Downturn 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6: 1982–2000: The Modern Cycle 109\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1. The Great Moderation 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. Disinflation and a Lower Cost of Capital 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEuropean Interest Rate Convergence 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonetary Policy and the ‘Fed Put’ 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3. Supply-Side Reforms (Including Deregulation and Privatisation) 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTax Reforms 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDeregulation and Privatisation 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4. The End of the Soviet Union (Lower Geopolitical Risk) 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5. Globalisation and Cooperation 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTechnology and the Labour Market 128\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6. The Impact of China and India 128\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7. Bubbles and Financial Innovation 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Japan Bubble and the Tech Bubble 130\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7: 2000–2009: Bubbles and Troubles 133\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Bursting of the Technology Bubble 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 138\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLeverage and Financial Innovation 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Decline in Long-Term Growth Expectations 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Rise in the Equity Risk Premium 148\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Negative Correlation Between Bonds and Equities 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8: 2009–2020: The Post- Financial- Crisis Cycle and Zero Interest Rates 153\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1. Weak Growth but High Equity Returns 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Aftershock of the Financial Crisis 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. The Era of Free Money 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Collapse in Government Bond Yields 162\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3. Low Volatility 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4. Rising Equity Valuations 168\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5. Technology and the Outperformance of Growth versus Value 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Extraordinary Gap between Growth and Value 172\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6. The Outperformance of the United States Over the Rest of the World 176\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZero Rates and the Demand for Risk Assets 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9: The Pandemic and the Return of ‘Fat and Flat’ 183\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePandemic Pandemonium 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Pandemic Shock 184\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnother Tech Bubble 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Medicine Worked 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Pandemic and Inflation 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom Disinflation to Reflation 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGetting Real – The Shift Higher in the Real Cost of Capital 200\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Golden Rules Resurface 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSector Leadership and the Rotation Towards Value 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart III: the Post-modern Cycle 207\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10: The Post-Modern Cycle 209\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructural Shifts and Opportunities 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDifferences from the Modern Cycle 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1. A Rise in the Cost of Capital 213\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Re-emergence of Inflation 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. A Slowdown in Trend Growth 218\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3. A Shift from Globalisation to Regionalisation 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4. A Rise in the Cost of Labour and Commodities 225\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePost-Pandemic Reversal 229\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Consequences and Investment Implications 230\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAI and the Labour Market 232\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5. An Increase in Government Spending and Debt 234\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Rise in Regulation and Industrial Policy 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy Transition Spending to Increase 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6. A Rise in Capital and Infrastructure Spending 242\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7. Changing Demographics 245\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAgeing Populations and Deficits 246\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAgeing Populations and New Markets 247\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8. An Increase in Geopolitical Tensions and the Multipolar World 249\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 11: The Post-Modern Cycle and Technology 251\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Technology Wins 254\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCharacteristics of Technology Revolutions 255\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExuberance, Speculation and Bubbles 256\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Dominance Effects 259\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Emergence of Secondary Technologies 260\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCan Technology Remain the Biggest Sector? 262\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCan the Current Group of Dominant Technology Companies Remain Leaders? 264\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Newer Technologies May Enhance Productivity 268\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeak Productivity in the Internet World 271\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom ‘Nice to Have’ to ‘Need to Have’ 271\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProductivity and the Impact of AI 272\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe PEARLs Framework for AI and Technology 274\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Pioneers 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Enablers 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Adaptors 277\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Reformers 278\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Laggards 279\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 12: The Post- Modern Cycle: Opportunities in the ‘Old Economy’ 285\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOpportunities in the ‘Old Economy’ 286\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDefence Spending 289\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInfrastructure Spending 291\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGreen Spending 292\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGovernment Policy and Spending 294\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommodities Spending 298\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Investment Markets Can Help Fund the Capex Boom 300\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Future of Jobs 301\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDon’t Forget the Power of Nostalgia 303\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOn Your Bike 305\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 13: Summary and Conclusions 309\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCycles 309\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles 311\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Post-Modern Cycle 313\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 315\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuggested Reading 335\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 343\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePETER C. OPPENHEIMER \u003c\/b\u003ehas nearly 40 years of experience working as a macro research analyst. He is Chief Global Equity Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe within Global Investment Research at Goldman Sachs. Prior to working at Goldman Sachs, he worked as chief investment strategist at HSBC and in a variety of other research roles at James Capel, Hambros Bank and Greenwells, where he started his career in 1985. Peter is a trustee at both the Development Committee for the National Institute of Economic \u0026amp; Social Research and The Anna Freud National Centre for Children and Families. He enjoys cycling and painting.    \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn \u003ci\u003eAny Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets\u003c\/i\u003e, the Chief Global Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs and “the godfather of stocks”, Peter Oppenheimer, delivers his long-awaited follow-up to the popular \u003ci\u003eThe Long Good Buy\u003c\/i\u003e. In this book, you’ll learn about how structural changes in macro drivers – including growth, inflation, and interest rates – combine with geopolitics and social change to impact long-term trends in markets (or “Super Cycles”). \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe author offers an insight into the different drivers of short-term market cycles and the longer-term secular trends within which these operate. He focuses on the next secular trend, the “Post-Modern Cycle”, and describes its likely characteristics, as well as what investors should be focused on. He discusses the interplay between the coming Post-Modern Cycle and the technological innovation and de-carbonisation that will shape it. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eAny Happy Returns\u003c\/i\u003e discusses the history and drivers of past Super Cycles, such as the Post-War Boom, the inflation of the 1970s and the long period of disinflation that followed, the impact of globalisation and the policy impact of post financial crisis cycle. The Post-Modern Cycle may reflect elements of these previous cycles, but in a world being re-shaped by changing geopolitical conditions, climate change and fast-moving technological development, it is likely to have unique characteristics offering a different set of challenges and opportunities. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eAny Happy Returns\u003c\/i\u003e is an indispensable new resource for anyone interested in market cycles. It offers new and deep insights into recent economic history and what the future holds for financial markets.    \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003ePRAISE FOR ANY\u003cb\u003e HAPPY RETURNS\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“Peter Oppenheimer is a distinguished practitioner of the art and science of stock market analysis. This volume instills his wisdom in cogent and clear terms. I don’t know how well anyone can explain markets or even explain respectively their movements, but no one should even try without mastering this volume’s important lessons.”\u003cbr\u003e —\u003cb\u003eLawrence Summers,\u003c\/b\u003e former United States Secretary of the Treasury. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“Following his excellent The Long Good Buy, Peter Oppenheimer, in this new and very stimulating book continues and deepens his brilliant analysis of the financial market cycles, linking these with major trends but also with the geopolitical, technological, and other business and societal transformations. The author signals and identifies the emergence of the “Post-Modern Cycle” and its potential far reaching effects.”\u003cbr\u003e —\u003cb\u003eJosé Manuel Barroso,\u003c\/b\u003e former president of the European Commission and prime minister of Portugal. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“Business and financial cycles matter. Peter Oppenheimer understands them well. But there are times when a combination of social, economic, political and technological factors makes the past a particularly unreliable guide. Peter introduces the idea of the post-modern cycle, reflecting some deep structural changes in our world. This book is an opportunity for us to liberate ourselves from the tyranny of the present, to think big and long term, and to reap the rewards.”\u003cbr\u003e—\u003cb\u003eSir Alexander William Younger,\u003c\/b\u003e former Chief of MI6. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“By skilfully interweaving the future and the past and incorporating history, culture and politics into his economic analysis, Peter Oppenheimer has written a book that is thought-provoking, insightful, and original.”\u003cbr\u003e—\u003cb\u003eProfessor Noreena Hertz,\u003c\/b\u003e Institute for Global Prosperity, University College London. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“Peter Oppenheimer has written a thoughtful and insightful book. He draws our attention to the role that cycles play in helping us not only understand where we are in them, but also to forecast what is likely to follow.”\u003cbr\u003e—\u003cb\u003eKofi Adjepong-Boateng CBE,\u003c\/b\u003e Research Associate, Centre for Financial History, University of Cambridge. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“Peter’s comprehensive analysis of Financial Market Super Cycles (longer-term trends), within which many cycles evolve, provides many new and invaluable insights. It is an eloquently written book that uses data-driven evidence, charts, and trends to succinctly convey and reinforce the underlying message. A must read for financial market investors, practitioners, academics, and regulators.”\u003cbr\u003e—\u003cb\u003eNarayan Naik,\u003c\/b\u003e Professor of Finance at the London Business School.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47988746813669,"sku":"NP9781394210350","price":32.5,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781394210350.jpg?v=1761781429","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/products\/any-happy-returns-isbn-9781394210350","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}