Volatility-Based Technical Analysis, Companion Web site

A framework for creating volatility-based technical analysis and trading it for profit

Volatility-Based Technical Analysis bridges the advantage gap between resource rich institutions and individual traders. It is a no-calculus, plain-English text that reveals original, highly technical, mathematical-based volatility indicators, complete with MetaStock® and TradeStation® code. With this in hand, any trader can "trade the invisible" by seeing a hidden mathematical structure on the price chart. Author Kirk Northington reveals his proprietary volatility indicators that serve as a market early warning system. Northington extensively teaches you how to build your own indicators, test them, and incorporate your original components into your specific trading methods.

• Walks traders through the mathematical techniques needed to create indicators that fit their own style
• Illustrates volatility-based entries and exits with over 170 descriptive chart examples
• Introduces two new concepts in technical analysis: Volatility Shift and PIV

Written with the serious trader in mind, Volatility-Based Technical Analysis has what you need to successfully trade today's institutionally dominated markets.

Preface xiii

Intended Audience xiv

What’s Inside? xiv

Acknowledgments xvii

PART ONE Are You Prepared? 1

CHAPTER 1 The Challenges 3

The Brain Power 4

The Horse Power 6

Options and VaR Ascendancy 7

Rain Clouds or Urine? 10

News Folly 12

Eyes on the Goal 13

CHAPTER 2 The Opportunities 15

Choose Your Battles 16

Take the Offensive 17

Prepare and Perform 26

Quiet the Noise 29

Opportunities Outnumber Challenges 30

CHAPTER 3 The Foundation: Preparations for Exploring Volatility-Based Technical Analysis 31

The Preparations Needed 32

Trading the Invisible Indicators: Original Development 33

Tenets of Volatility-Based Technical Analysis 34

Component Testing 40

MetaSwing QuickStart 40

Discover by Doing 51

PART TWO Seeing the Invisible 53

CHAPTER 4 New Volatility Indicator Design 55

Volatility Unmasked 56

Standard Deviation 57

Example: Volatility-Based Support and Resistance 61

Average True Range 66

Molding a Volatility-Based Indicator 69

The Whole Picture 83

Building Blocks 86

CHAPTER 5 Integrated Volatility Indicator Design 87

Volatility Pointed Forward 87

Projected Implied Volatility 90

More from the Math Toolbox 101

Using Tools to Leverage TTI ATR Extreme 107

Development Efficiency 114

Inventing Wheels: You’re Not Alone 115

Onward 126

CHAPTER 6 The Framework: A Structural Approach for Cross-Verification 127

Adopting a Structure 128

Think and See Volatility 129

The Framework Components 141

Constructing a Compound Derivative 146

The Framework 156

Going Forward 161

CHAPTER 7 Traditional Technical Analysis: What Works, What Doesn’t, and Why 162

Line Studies 163

Chart Patterns 173

Oscillators 185

Choose the Best 198

PART THREE Trading the Invisible 199

CHAPTER 8 Bull Bear Phase Prediction: The Intermediate and Short-Term Market Swing 201

Why Swing with the Market? 202

Intermediate-Term Market Direction 204

Short-Term Market Swing 211

Seek the Advantage 223

CHAPTER 9 Trading the Short-Term Reversal with Volatility-Based Technical Analysis—The Adeo 224

The Adeo Point 225

The Adeo Trend Rally 232

The Meandering Adeo 236

The Adeo Short 240

Adeo and FOREX 245

The Fractal Adeo 246

Open Your Can of Spinach 249

CHAPTER 10 Trading the Trend with the 1-2-3 250

Rectangles Everywhere 251

The Traditional Approach 253

The 1-2-3 Construct 254

The Daily 1-2-3 259

The Weekly 1-2-3 263

The 1-2-3: Inside and Outside 269

As Simple as 1-2-3 279

CHAPTER 11 Hidden Momentum with Adeo High Slope 280

We Are Experiencing Technical Difficulties; Please Stand By 281

Momentum Hide and Go Seek 283

Momentum Found 289

The Quick and the Broke 303

CHAPTER 12 Designing the Exit 305

The Objective: Optimize the Profit Target 306

Using Time Slicing to Understand Your Time Frame 310

Fifth-Grade Arithmetic 312

Exit Tactics 315

Achieving the Objective 331

CHAPTER 13 Correction and Surge: An Early Warning System 333

Market Breadth 334

The Correction Event 338

The Surge Event 348

The Best Free Advice 355

CHAPTER 14 Trading System Design: Detecting the Invisible 356

Seeing through the Fog of War 357

Nail It Down: Recognize the Specifics 358

The Importance of Believing 359

System Design Structure 360

System Design Tactics 365

Ask the Questions and Use the Advantages 382

APPENDIX A TradeStation Examples and Easy Language Code 384

Average True Range 384

The TTI ATR Extreme 386

The TTI Stochastic Extreme 393

The TTI Fabric LR 399

The TTI Trend Strength 403

The TTI RSIV 405

The TTI Composite 409

The Relative Exit 412

Correction and Surge 420

MetaSwing for TradeStation 423

APPENDIX B The PIV Options Advantage: Using Projected Implied Volatility to Trade the Butterfly,Condor, Strangle, and Straddle 427

PIV for the Butterfly and Condor 427

PIV for the Strangle and Straddle 436

PIV for Option Spreads 440

APPENDIX C About the Companion Web Site 441

Notes 443

About the Author 447

A Special Offer from MetaStock 449

Index 451

"While the book is written in an easy to understand style, Northington realizes that not every trader is a programmer. For that reason, he includes the MetaStock® and TradeStation® code for the original, volatility-based indicators that he presents in the book. With these examples in hand, any trader can apply the concepts which are explained in rich detail. Northington’s goal seems to be to teach the reader how to build indicators based upon unique market insights; test the indicators on a stand-alone basis; and incorporate meaningful indicators into trading methods that suit a trader’s personality. In doing so, he also provides a ready-to-go trading system that can be applied with days of beginning the book." (Market Technicians Association Technically Speaking, September 2009)

"Northington presents a credible framework for trading volatile markets. His creativity and advocacy merit attention. New and advanced traders alike will benefit from grasping these concepts."
—SFO Magazine

KIRK NORTHINGTON is the President of Northington Trading, LLC, a developer of technical analysis systems based on adaptive volatility for swing trading. The company's flagship software product, MetaSwing, is an add-on toolkit for users of MetaStock technical analysis software. In addition to system design, Northington Trading trades stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges. Kirk has previously held positions in several Fortune 500 companies, with experience in engineering, digital control system design, and project management.

In today's markets, you won't get very far by using outdated technical indicators and methods known to everyone. With institutions implementing innovative new tools in their trading endeavors and professionals profiting from spotting signs that an individual trader might miss, you need something to level the playing field. That's why Kirk Northington has created Volatility-Based Technical Analysis.

As the President of Northington Trading, LLC, and a developer of technical analysis systems based on adaptive volatility, Northington knows how larger market-moving players create profits. Now, with this accessible guide, he bridges the gap between resource-rich institutions and individual traders by revealing how you can locate hidden mathematical structures on price charts and "trade the invisible."

Written for those who want to adapt technical analysis to the volatility forces at work in today's markets, this reliable resource contains all original, highly technical, mathematical-based volatility indicators, complete with MetaStock^® and TradeStation^® code; all presented without calculus. Throughout the book, you'll not only discover how to build your own indicators and test them, but also learn how to incorporate original components into your specific trading methods.

Volatility-Based Technical Analysis is divided into three comprehensive parts:

• Part One outlines the many obstacles individual traders must overcome, while carefully laying out how market changes since 2000 have produced the need for volatility measurement in all aspects of technical analysis.
• Part Two explores arithmetic measurements of volatility—within exercises that create custom indicators—and delves into specific techniques for creating those indicators. It also focuses on retrofitting classic technical indicators with volatility measurement and introduces the concept of Projected Implied Volatility (PIV).
• Part Three focuses on exact trade setups—with discussions of a new technical analysis concept known as Volatility Shift and how to exploit it—and details the process of developing volatility-based technical analysis components. It also examines the importance of forecasting the broad market's short- and intermediate-term direction.

Along with the practical insights found throughout these pages, you'll also be able to build your knowledge base with information found on this book's companion Web site (www.tradingtheinvisible.com). This site contains free trial versions of programmable technical analysis software as well as more examples and exercises that tie into the text.

Designed with the serious trader in mind, Volatility-Based Technical Analysis skillfully highlights how to use unique volatility-based tools to successfully trade today's institutionally dominated markets.