{"product_id":"uncertainty-in-risk-assessment-isbn-9781118489581","title":"Uncertainty in Risk Assessment","description":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eExplores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in \u003ci\u003eUncertainty in Risk Assessment\u003c\/i\u003e have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhile requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, \u003ci\u003eUncertainty in Risk Assessment\u003c\/i\u003e can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eUncertainty in Risk Assessment\u003c\/i\u003e:\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eIllustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eProvides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eOffers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003ePresents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eUses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface ix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart I Introduction 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 Introduction 3\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1 Risk 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1.1 The concept of risk 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1.2 Describing\/measuring risk 6\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1.3 Examples 6\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2 Probabilistic risk assessment 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.3 Use of risk assessment: The risk management and decision-making context 11\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.4 Treatment of uncertainties in risk assessments 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.5 Challenges: Discussion 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.5.1 Examples 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.5.2 Alternatives to the probability-based approaches to risk and uncertainty assessment 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.5.3 The way ahead 19\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences – Part I 21\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart II Methods 27\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 Probabilistic approaches for treating uncertainty 29\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1 Classical probabilities 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2 Frequentist probabilities 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3 Subjective probabilities 35\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3.1 Betting interpretation 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3.2 Reference to a standard for uncertainty 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.4 The Bayesian subjective probability framework 37\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.5 Logical probabilities 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 Imprecise probabilities for treating uncertainty 41\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Possibility theory for treating uncertainty 45\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.1 Basics of possibility theory 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2 Approaches for constructing possibility distributions 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.1 Building possibility distributions from nested probability intervals 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.2 Justification for using the triangular possibility distribution 51\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.3 Building possibility distributions using Chebyshev’s inequality 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Evidence theory for treating uncertainty 53\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 Methods of uncertainty propagation 59\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1 Level 1 uncertainty propagation setting 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1.1 Level 1 purely probabilistic framework 62\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1.2 Level 1 purely possibilistic framework 64\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1.3 Level 1 hybrid probabilistic–possibilistic framework 67\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2 Level 2 uncertainty propagation setting 71\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2.1 Level 2 purely probabilistic framework 73\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2.2 Level 2 hybrid probabilistic–evidence theory framework 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7 Discussion 79\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1 Probabilistic analysis 80\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2 Lower and upper probabilities 82\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.3 Non-probabilistic representations with interpretations other than lower and upper probabilities 84\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4 Hybrid representations of uncertainty 85\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5 Semi-quantitative approaches 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences – Part II 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart III Practical Applications 99\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8 Uncertainty representation and propagation in structural reliability analysis 101\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.1 Structural reliability analysis 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.1.1 A model of crack propagation under cyclic fatigue 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2 Case study 102\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3 Uncertainty representation 104\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4 Uncertainty propagation 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5 Results 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.6 Comparison to a purely probabilistic method 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9 Uncertainty representation and propagation in maintenance performance assessment 111\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.1 Maintenance performance assessment 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2 Case study 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3 Uncertainty representation 116\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4 Uncertainty propagation 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.1 Maintenance performance assessment in the case of no epistemic uncertainty on the parameters 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.2 Application of the hybrid probabilistic–theory of evidence uncertainty propagation method 122\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5 Results 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e10 Uncertainty representation and propagation in event tree analysis 127\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.1 Event tree analysis 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2 Case study 128\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3 Uncertainty representation 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4 Uncertainty propagation 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.5 Results 137\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6 Comparison of the results to those obtained by using other uncertainty representation and propagation methods 138\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.1 Purely probabilistic representation and propagation of the uncertainty 138\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.2 Purely possibilistic representation and propagation of the uncertainty 138\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.7 Result comparison 141\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.7.1 Comparison of results 141\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.7.2 Comparison of the results for the probability of occurrence of a severe consequence accident 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e11 Uncertainty representation and propagation in the evaluation of the consequences of industrial activity 147\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.1 Evaluation of the consequences of undesirable events 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2 Case study 148\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3 Uncertainty representation 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.4 Uncertainty propagation 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.5 Results 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.6 Comparison of the results to those obtained using a purely probabilistic approach 153\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e12 Uncertainty representation and propagation in the risk assessment of a process plant 155\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.1 Introduction 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.2 Case description 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.3 The “textbook” Bayesian approach (level 2 analysis) 156\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4 An alternative approach based on subjective probabilities (level 1 analysis) 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences – Part III 163\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart IV Conclusions 167\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e13 Conclusions 169\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences – Part IV 173\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix A Operative procedures for the methods of uncertainty propagation 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1 Level 1 hybrid probabilistic–possibilistic framework 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.2 Level 2 purely probabilistic framework 176\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix B Possibility–probability transformation 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReference 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 183\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003e“Therefore, I would recommend this book to a broad audience, from advanced undergraduates, to specialists, including probability theoreticians.”  (\u003ci\u003eComputing Reviews\u003c\/i\u003e, 16 July 2014)\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eTerje Aven\u003c\/b\u003e, \u003ci\u003eUniversity of Stavanger, Norway\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePiero Baraldi\u003c\/b\u003e, \u003ci\u003ePolitecnico di Milano, Italy\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eRoger Flage\u003c\/b\u003e, \u003ci\u003eUniversity of Stavanger, Norway\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eEnrico Zio\u003c\/b\u003e, \u003ci\u003ePolitecnico di Milano, Italy\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eExplores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in \u003ci\u003eUncertainty in Risk Assessment\u003c\/i\u003e have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhile requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, \u003ci\u003eUncertainty in Risk Assessment\u003c\/i\u003e can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eUncertainty in Risk Assessment\u003c\/i\u003e:\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eIllustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eProvides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eOffers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003ePresents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eUses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47990425518309,"sku":"NP9781118489581","price":94.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781118489581.jpg?v=1761787777","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/es\/products\/uncertainty-in-risk-assessment-isbn-9781118489581","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}