{"product_id":"trade-the-congressional-effect-isbn-9781118362433","title":"Trade the Congressional Effect","description":"\u003cb\u003eAn innovative investment approach that takes the actions of the U.S. Congress into consideration\u003c\/b\u003e  \u003cp\u003eHistorical research indicates that, more often than not, when Congress is in session there is a negative effect on equities markets (the \"Congressional Effect\") due possibly to investor uncertainty surrounding government action or inaction as well as the unintended consequences of Congressional legislative initiatives on the stock market. Author Eric Singer, a financial professional with over twenty-five years of experience, is an expert on this phenomenon, and with this new book he shares his extensive insights with you.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eTrade the Congressional Effect\u003c\/i\u003e skillfully details how you can profit from Congress's impact on the stock market. Along the way, it puts this approach in perspective and gives you all the tools you'll need to profitably incorporate it into your investing endeavors. Singer walks you through the process of trading the Congressional Effect and provides practical guidance regarding the possible pitfalls and opportunities you'll face each step of the way.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eAddresses why it is better to invest while Congress \u003ci\u003eisn't\u003c\/i\u003e in session\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eReveals exactly what the Congressional Effect encompasses and why it occurs\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eWritten by Eric Singer, one of the first people to publicly document the general effect of Congress on daily stock prices\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eSupported by over forty-five years of real world data, the Congressional Effect has proven profitable to those who know how to use it. This timely guide will show you exactly what it takes to make this phenomenon work for you.\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments xi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOur Damaged Economy 2\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCongress’s Role in Wealth Destruction 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 10\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 1 What Is the Congressional Effect? 13\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Was the Congressional Effect Discovered? 14\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEarly Returns Showing the Congressional Effect 19\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Smoot-Hawley Act: The Mother of All Congressional Effects 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Congressional Effect Data and Launching a Mutual Fund 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 2 The Congressional Effect and the Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory 27\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow MPT Has Been Used by Financial Advisers 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFormulas Distort Valuation if Inputs Are Not Free Market Inputs 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Caused the Crash of 1987? 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Magnitude of the Crash of 1987 Refutes MPT 38\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMPT Assumes All Daily Pricing Is Random, but the Congressional Effect Shows It Is Not 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 42\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 3 Congressmen as Issues Entrepreneurs 43\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Time-Money-Vote Continuum: Congress as a Business 44\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCongressmen as Traders and Real Estate Entrepreneurs: Making Money Outside Their Day Gig 54\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 58\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 4 Behavioral Finance, the Stock Market, and Congressional Dysfunction 59\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverview of Behavioral Finance Concepts 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSurvey of Behavioral Finance Concepts 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCongress’s Approach to Behavioral Finance 67\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 78\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 78\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 5 If Congress Is Malfunction Junction, What’s Its Function? 81\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEconomic Lifeblood: Investment Capital Formation, the Stock Market, and Congress 81\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDodd-Frank Overview 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHealth Care Reform 95\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBurning Coal and Other Energy Investors 103\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 6 Where Will Washington Strike Next? 113\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhere You Can Find Information 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow to Leverage This Glut of Information 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 125\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 7 Sidestepping Congress’s Wealth Destruction with a Macro Approach 127\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11,832 Data Points Support the Congressional Effect Theory 128\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCongress and the Tragedy of the Commons 130\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAdam Smith, Call Your Office! 131\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 8 Are Democrats or Republicans Better for Your Portfolio? 139\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWho Gets the Credit for the Bull Market in 1980? 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUnified Government Favors Nominal Returns 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSplit Government Favors Real Returns 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRepublican Congress vs. Democratic Congress 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFilibuster-Proof Majorities Hurt Returns 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 148\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 149\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 9 Leverging the Election Cycle 151\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Presidential Cycle and Real Returns 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe 2012 Election and Beyond 156\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 10 Are Lame Ducks, Impeachments, Resignations, Vetoes, and Litigated Elections\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGood for the Market? 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePresident Bill Clinton 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePresident Andrew Johnson 165\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eResignations 167\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLame Duck Sessions 167\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLitigated Elections 168\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVetoes 170\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 11 More Ways to Dodge Congress’s Stray Bullets 173\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValue Funds: Longer Time Horizons than Congress or the Somali Pirates 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGold Funds: Avoiding Congressional Debasement 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBeyond Congress: International Funds 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReducing Global Security Risk 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 12 ‘‘That Government Is Best that Governs Least’’ 185\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrognosis: Increasingly Partisan Politics Is Not Good for the Market 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConflicting Government Mandates Promote Market Instability 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Cumulative Effect of Unintended Consequences Is Congressional Wealth Destruction 191\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCongress’s Dysfunctionality and the 2012 Election 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Happens When Congress Does Not Know the Price? 195\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCongress Needs to Attract the Best Talent 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Conclusion 198\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 199\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Author 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 203\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eERIC T. SINGER\u003c\/b\u003e manages the Congressional Effect Fund, traded under the symbol CEFFX (CEFIX for institutional investors), a public mutual fund launched in 2008 through his registered investment advisor, Congressional Effect Management, LLC (www.congressionaleffect.com). He was the first to document the general effect of Congress on daily stock prices in an article published in \u003ci\u003eBarron's\u003c\/i\u003e in 1992. His opinion pieces have appeared in \u003ci\u003eInvestor's Business Daily\u003c\/i\u003e as well as \u003ci\u003eForbes,\u003c\/i\u003e the \u003ci\u003eAmerican Spectator, American Thinker, Townhall, Seeking Alpha\u003c\/i\u003e, and \u003ci\u003eNewsmax\u003c\/i\u003e, and he has been featured on national TV and radio, including Fox Business News and Bloomberg TV.\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e\"From 1965 through 2011, measuring each of the 11,832 trading days during that period, the price of the S\u0026amp;P 500 Index rose at an annualized rate of less than 1% on days Congress was in session, but over 16% on days they were out of session.\"\u003cbr\u003e —From Chapter One\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Congressional Effect—when Congress is in session, there is a negative effect on equities markets—is based on solid historical research. While the statistics prove the validity of the Congressional Effect, the reasoning behind it is most probably due to investor uncertainty concerning government action or inaction as well as the unintended consequences of Congressional legislative initiatives on the stock market. In \u003ci\u003eTrade the Congressional Effect\u003c\/i\u003e, Eric T. Singer—a financial professional with over twenty-five years of experience and an expert on this phenomenon—offers guidance on how you can put this effect to work for you.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThroughout the book, Singer offers an in-depth examination of the Congressional Effect and recommends several strategies for how to optimize your portfolio. Once you understand the nature of the incentives that each politician proposes (which collectively result in Congress relentlessly working against your portfolio), you can better use their efforts to your advantage. Step by step, Singer walks you through the process and provides practical guidance regarding the possible pitfalls and opportunities you'll face when using this technique.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSupported by more than forty-five years of real-world data, the Congressional Effect has proven profitable to those who know how to use it. This timely guide will show you exactly what it takes to make this phenomenon work for you.\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003ePraise for \u003ci\u003eTrade the Congressional Effect\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"Once in a while, an idea, a small gem, comes along that reflects the whole world. Singer's book is it, a thesis to live from, learn from, and make money from. Singer provides that which we all long for: a way to make money from political insight.\"\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e—Amity Shlaes\u003c\/b\u003e, author, \u003ci\u003eThe Forgotten Man\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"Thanks to Mark Twain, we know that nobody's 'life, liberty, or property is safe while the legislature is in session.' Now, thanks to Eric Singer, we know why, and what to do about it. In these pages, he admirably succeeds in the important task he has set for himself. To wit: how to protect yourself, and your net worth, from the depredations of Congress. \"\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e—James Grant\u003c\/b\u003e, Editor of \u003ci\u003eGrant's Interest Rate Observer\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"The author's straightforward idea—that Congress harms wealth creation—provides many insights into politics, the economy, and investing. \u003ci\u003eTrade the Congressional Effect\u003c\/i\u003e will appeal to serious investors, as well as policy wonks and libertarians ... but it should be taken to heed by the 535 men and women who pass some of their days on Capitol Hill. Some surprising insights—a devastating attack on Modern Portfolio Theory ... a look at what caused the Great Depression ... Congressmen as traders and speculators ... the effect of split governments, lame ducks, and litigated elections on the stock market ... Reading \u003ci\u003eTrade the Congressional Effect\u003c\/i\u003e will provide much guidance about Congress's 'unintended consequences' that are so persistent, casually dangerous, and impoverishing.\"\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e—Adrian Day\u003c\/b\u003e, President, Adrian Day Asset Management\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47990401237221,"sku":"NP9781118362433","price":60.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781118362433.jpg?v=1761787681","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/es\/products\/trade-the-congressional-effect-isbn-9781118362433","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}