{"product_id":"the-new-depression-isbn-9781118157794","title":"The New Depression","description":"\u003cb\u003eWhy the global recession is in danger of becoming another Great Depression, and how we can stop it\u003c\/b\u003e  \u003cp\u003e When the United States stopped backing dollars with gold in 1968, the nature of money changed. All previous constraints on money and credit creation were removed and a new economic paradigm took shape. Economic growth ceased to be driven by capital accumulation and investment as it had been since before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, credit creation and consumption began to drive the economic dynamic. In \u003ci\u003eThe New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy\u003c\/i\u003e, Richard Duncan introduces an analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explains all aspects of the calamity now unfolding: its causes, the rationale for the government's policy response to the crisis, what is likely to happen next, and how those developments will affect asset prices and investment portfolios.\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003e In his previous book, \u003ci\u003eThe Dollar Crisis\u003c\/i\u003e (2003), Duncan explained why a severe global economic crisis was inevitable given the flaws in the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system, and now he's back to explain what's next. The economic system that emerged following the abandonment of sound money requires credit growth to survive. Yet the private sector can bear no additional debt and the government's creditworthiness is deteriorating rapidly. Should total credit begin to contract significantly, this New Depression will become a New Great Depression, with disastrous economic and geopolitical consequences. That outcome is not inevitable, and this book describes what must be done to prevent it.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003ePresents a fascinating look inside the financial crisis and how the New Depression is poised to become a New Great Depression\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIntroduces a new theoretical construct, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that is the key to understanding not only the developments that led to the crisis, but also to understanding how events will play out in the years ahead\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eOffers unique insights from the man who predicted the global economic breakdown\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e  \u003cp\u003e Alarming but essential reading, \u003ci\u003eThe New Depression\u003c\/i\u003e explains why the global economy is teetering on the brink of falling into a deep and protracted depression, and how we can restore stability.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface xi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1 How Credit Slipped Its Leash 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOpening Pandora’s Box 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConstraints on the Fed and on Paper Money Creation 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFractional Reserve Banking Run Amok 5\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFractional Reserve Banking 5\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommercial Banks 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Broader Credit Market: Too Many Lenders, Not Enough Reserves 10\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCredit without Reserves 12\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Flow of Funds 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Rest of the World 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2 The Global Money Glut 17\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Financial Account 18\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow It Works 20\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Percentage of Total Foreign Exchange Reserves Are Dollars? 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat to Do with So Many Dollars? 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat about the Remaining $2.8 Trillion? 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDebunking the Global Savings Glut Theory 28\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWill China Dump Its Dollars? 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3 Creditopia 33\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWho Borrowed the Money? 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImpact on the Economy 38\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNet Worth 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProfits 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTax Revenue 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDifferent, Not Just More 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImpact on Capital 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNote 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4 The Quantity Theory of Credit 51\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Quantity Theory of Money 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Rise and Fall of Monetarism 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Quantity Theory of Credit 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCredit and Inflation 59\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5 The Policy Response: Perpetuating the Boom 63\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Credit Cycle 64\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Have They Done so Far? 65\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonetary Omnipotence and the Limits Thereof 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Balance Sheet of the Federal Reserve 67\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative Easing: Round One 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Did QE1 Accomplish? 71\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative Easing: Round Two 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonetizing the Debt 73\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Role of the Trade Deficit 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDiminishing Returns 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Other Money Makers 78\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6 Where Are We Now? 85\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Bad so Far? 85\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCredit Growth Drove Economic Growth 86\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSo, Where Does that Leave Us? 88\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Can’t TCMD Grow? 89\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Banking Industry: Why Still Too Big to Fail? 96\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlobal Imbalances: Still Unresolved 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVision and Leadership Are Still Lacking 104\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7 How It Plays Out 107\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Business Cycle 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDebt: Public and Private 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2011: The Starting Point 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2012: Expect QE3 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImpact on Asset Prices 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2013–2014: Three Scenarios 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImpact on Asset Prices 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 119\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 120\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8 Disaster Scenarios 121\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Last Great Depression 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnd This Time? 126\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBanking Crisis 126\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProtectionism 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGeopolitical Consequences 128\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNote 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9 The Policy Options 133\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCapitalism and the Laissez-Faire Method 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe State of Government Finances 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Government’s Options 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAmerican Solar 143\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10 Fire and Ice, Inflation and Deflation 149\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFire 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIce 151\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFisher’s Theory of Debt-Deflation 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWinners and Losers 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIce Storm 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFire Storm 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWealth Preservation through Diversification 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOther Observations Concerning Asset Prices in the\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAge of Paper Money 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProtectionism and Inflation 165\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConsequences of Regulating Derivatives 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 167\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 169\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Author 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 173\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003e\"Contains a fascinating and powerful diagnosis of how we got to our current pass... he makes an astonishing proposal at the end that made my jaw drop.\" (Wealthbriefing.com, 14th August 2012) \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"The book is well worth reading for its analysis.\" (\u003cem\u003eThe Economist,\u003c\/em\u003e 7th July 2012)   \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eRichard Duncan\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e is the author of two earlier books on the global economic crisis. \u003ci\u003eThe Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures\u003c\/i\u003e explained why a worldwide economic calamity was inevitable given the flaws in the post-Bretton Woods international monetary system. It was an international bestseller. \u003ci\u003eThe Corruption of Capitalism\u003c\/i\u003e described the long series of US policy mistakes responsible for the crisis. It also outlined the policies necessary to permanently resolve it. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eSince beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington, D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis. He is now chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Management in Singapore. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eRichard studied economics and literature at Vanderbilt University and international finance at Babson College, and, between the two, spent a year travelling around the world as a backpacker.   \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWhen the United States stopped backing dollars with gold in 1968, the nature of money changed. All previous constraints on money and credit creation were removed, and a new economic paradigm took shape. Economic growth was no longer driven by capital accumulation and investment as it had been since before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, credit creation and consumption began to drive the economic dynamic.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOver the following four decades, total debt in the United States expanded fiftyfold to $50 trillion. That explosion of paper money–denominated debt transformed the world by generating unprecedented wealth, profits, jobs, and tax revenues. In 2008, however, that debt could not be repaid, and The New Depression began.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn \u003ci\u003eThe Dollar Crisis\u003c\/i\u003e, Richard Duncan explained why a severe global economic crisis was inevitable given the flaws in the post–Bretton Woods international monetary system. In The New Depression, he introduces an analytical framework, the Quantity Theory of Credit, that explains all aspects of the calamity now unfolding: its causes, the rationale for the government's policy response to the crisis, what is likely to happen next, and how those developments will affect asset prices and investment portfolios.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe economic system that has emerged following the abandonment of sound money requires credit growth to survive. Yet the private sector can bear no additional debt and the government's creditworthiness is deteriorating rapidly. Should total credit begin to contract significantly, this New Depression will become a New Great Depression, with disastrous economic and geopolitical consequences. That outcome is not inevitable. This book describes what must be done to prevent it.\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003eWhen the United States stopped backing dollars with gold in 1968, the nature of money changed. All previous constraints on money and credit creation were removed, and a new economic paradigm took shape. Economic growth was no longer driven by capital accumulation and investment as it had been since before the Industrial Revolution. Instead, credit creation and consumption began to drive the economic dynamic. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOver the following four decades, total debt in the United States expanded fiftyfold to $50 trillion. That explosion of paper money–denominated debt transformed the world by generating unprecedented wealth, profits, jobs, and tax revenues. In 2008, however, that debt could not be repaid, and The New Depression began. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn \u003ci\u003eThe Dollar Crisis\u003c\/i\u003e, Richard Duncan explained why a severe global economic crisis was inevitable given the flaws in the post–Bretton Woods international monetary system. In \u003ci\u003eThe New Depression,\u003c\/i\u003e he introduces an analytical framework, the Quantity Theory of Credit, that explains all aspects of the calamity now unfolding: its causes, the rationale for the government's policy response to the crisis, what is likely to happen next, and how those developments will affect asset prices and investment portfolios. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe economic system that has emerged following the abandonment of sound money requires credit growth to survive. Yet the private sector can bear no additional debt and the government's creditworthiness is deteriorating rapidly. Should total credit begin to contract significantly, this New Depression will become a New Great Depression, with disastrous economic and geopolitical consequences. That outcome is not inevitable. This book describes what must be done to prevent it.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47990295691493,"sku":"NP9781118157794","price":38.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781118157794.jpg?v=1761787245","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/es\/products\/the-new-depression-isbn-9781118157794","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}