{"product_id":"the-investors-dilemma-decoded-isbn-9781394220359","title":"The Investor's Dilemma Decoded","description":"\u003cp\u003eFew aspects of life are as important as personal finance, as subject to your control, and as suffused with misinformation, noise, and confusion. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eNow, authors Dr. Roger D. Silk and Katherine A. Silk cut through that confusion and share with you the fruits of their knowledge and experience developed over the last 43 years. After completing a Ph.D. at Stanford where he studied at the cutting edge of finance theory, Dr. Silk's experience includes managing billions of dollars at the World Bank and running a family office for one of the nation's wealthiest families. For the last 26 years as CEO of the nation's leading firm which advises high net worth individuals on financial and other aspects of their philanthropy, Dr. Silk has worked with countless individual investors and financial professionals. Katherine Silk, who holds a master's in history from Stanford, adds a valuable and often-missing historical perspective. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eTheir weekly blog, dealing in depth with a variety of financial, economic, and planning issues, is read by thousands. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eUnlike many authors in the Personal Finance space, the Silks have the deep technical expertise (it's hard to get a graduate degree from Stanford without it), decades of experience, and the rare ability to express complex ideas in clear, easy-to-understand prose. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWhen Gary Taubes wrote \u003ci\u003eThe Case for Keto,\u003c\/i\u003e he considered calling it “How to Think About How to Eat.” Similarly, \u003ci\u003eThe Investor's Dilemma Decoded\u003c\/i\u003e could be titled “How to Think about How to Invest.” \u003ci\u003eInvestor's Dilemma\u003c\/i\u003e gives you the tools that 99.9% of investors never master — these tools allow you to understand how to think about almost any category of investment, and almost any investment product or program. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn addition, the authors take a deep dive into topics including \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eWhat actually generates investment returns (it's probably not what you think)\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIs owning a home an investment (you'll learn why the answer is sometimes yes, and sometimes no)\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eShould you own gold (clue: the largest gold holders in the world are central banks)\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eWhat is a hedge, and are commodity funds an inflation hedge\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eWhat many well-known investment personalities get wrong on about returns (they tell the truth, but it's the wrong truth)\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eWhat risk is, and isn't, and why the “safe” course might be the riskiest (but the government says it's safe).\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow professional financial advisors can add huge value to their individual clients (it's not by picking the best stocks)\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eShould you read this book? If you want to understand how professionals think about investing, about what is realistic and unrealistic, and learn to spot the difference between a Bull Market and Bull-xxxx, the answer is yes. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eSynopsis of The Investor’s Dilemma Decoded xv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments xix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction xxi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1: Time Value of Money 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Standard Theory 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAssumption: You Can Save Money at No Cost 2\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAssumption: You Can Save Money at No Risk 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTime Value of Money and Compound Growth 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eComparing Values Across Time 6\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReal-World Compounding Versus “Pure” Theory of Time Value of Money 6\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Math of Compounding 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMore Frequent Compounding 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 11\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnswers 12\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2: Basic Investment Analysis 13\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBasic Terminology 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModeling an Investment as a Series of Cash Flows 14\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNet Present Value 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValuing a Stream of Cash Flows 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEasy Way 18\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHarder Way 18\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePresent Value of a Growing Perpetual Stream of Cash Flows 20\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDuration: A Measure of Interest Rate Sensitivity 21\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Is Rate of Return Calculated? 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimple Annual Rate of Return Versus Compound Rate of Return 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eArithmetic Versus Geometric Mean 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInternal Rate of Return 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIRR Defined 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSome Limitations of IRR 27\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3: Bonds\/Fixed Income\/Loans 31\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBonds 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Are Bonds? 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBond Terms 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Determines Bond Returns? 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReturn Versus Yield 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eShort to Medium Term 34\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInflation Adjusted or “Real” Returns 38\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisks to Bonds 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCredit Risk 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHistorical Experience of Defaults 44\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInterest Rate Risk 46\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBond Math – The Absolute Minimum 46\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInflation Risk 48\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLow Interest Rates as Financial Repression 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4: Equities 51\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Are Equities? 51\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEquity 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAdditional Equity or Equity-Like Asset Classes That Might Be of Interest 53\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Generates Stock Returns 53\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMedium- and Short-Run Returns 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndividual Stocks Versus “The Market” 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMarkets and Indices 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValuation Measures for Individual Companies 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValuation Changes and Returns 59\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNoise – Information Versus Signal 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValuation Changes 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHistoric CAPE Versus Returns 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat About Momentum? 62\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Has Generated Historical Returns in the US Market? 64\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLong-Run Source of Returns to US Stocks 65\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Returns Can We Expect from US Stocks from Here? 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValuation Risk 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMedium-Term Expected Returns 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVariability 70\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTakeaways Regarding Returns 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5: Real Estate 73\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eKinds of Real Estate 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFarmland 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFalling Interest Rates Explain Half the Real Increase Since 1967 . . . 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e. . . But Falling Interest Rates Explain All the Real Increase Since 1987 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrice\/Earnings Ratio for Farmland 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll Farmland 78\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFarmland – Summary 80\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLonger-Term Returns to Farmland 80\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Returns Should We Expect from Farmland? 84\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTimber 85\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOffice Buildings 85\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReturns to Land 86\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHomes 88\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOwning Apartments as Investments 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSource of Return 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEconomic Theory 91\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 96\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6: Gold and Gold Stocks 99\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIs Gold in a Class by Itself? 99\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Brief History of Gold 100\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGold’s Place in a Portfolio 104\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat About Gold Stocks? 106\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSilver 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 108\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7: Futures and Commodities 111\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eArbitrage 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFutures Contracts 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePricing of Futures Contracts 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommodities 116\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonetary Regime Matters 122\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAre There Commodity “Yields”? 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCollateral Yield 126\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommodity Index Funds Have Negative Expected Real Returns 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eManaged Futures Funds 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBarclays CTA Index 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8: Mutual Funds 133\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOpen-Ended Funds Versus Exchange Traded-Funds (ETFs) 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAdvantages of Fund Investing 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex Funds 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSector Funds 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHedge Funds 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndividual Bonds Versus Bond Mutual Funds 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAre Mutual Fund Expenses a Good Value? 137\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9: Basic Portfolio Theory 139\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMarkowitz Model 139\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCapital Asset Pricing Model 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow and Why Diversification Can Reduce Risk 143\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMathematical Underpinnings of the Capital Asset Pricing Model 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDon’t Mistake Beta (Returns Correlated with Risk) for Alpha (Risk-Free Returns) 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAssessing the Risks and Returns of the QQQ Versus the Spy 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDrawdowns 149\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRandom Walk 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEfficient Market Hypothesis 151\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSignificant Exception to the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The “Value Anomaly” 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValue Versus Growth Stocks 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInternational Evidence 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat About the “Size” Effect? 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e“Cheap” or “Expensive”? Volatility of Stock Prices Versus Earnings or Dividends 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCan You “Beat the Market”? 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Don’t Professionals Beat the Average? 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEffect of Fees 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEffect of Cash Holdings 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnhanced Index Strategies 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhich Index? 163\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 164\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10: Financial Leverage 165\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReg. T. 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEffect of Leverage 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSecurities Lending 169\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePayments in Lieu of Dividends 169\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSecurities Lending Is a Complicated Tax Area 170\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRehypothecation Risk 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReal World Leverage, Again 172\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 11: Risk 175\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFear of Losing Money 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk Versus Uncertainty 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHistory 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsing Statistics to Understand Risk 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExplanation – Arithmetic and Geometric Means 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSo What? 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVariance 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnother Important Implication of Volatility 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModeling Likely Future Values 184\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModeling Future Wealth 184\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMathematical Approach – A Very Short Course in Statistics 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSample Mean 186\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStandard Deviation 186\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePopulation Standard Deviation Versus Sample Standard Deviation 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStandard Error 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStandard Error and DMS 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProjecting the Likely Range of Future Values 190\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSkewness 191\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePercentiles 192\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExpected Value Revisited 194\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 12: Assembling a Portfolio 195\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForget About “Best” or “Optimal” 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReasonable Estimates for Expected Returns – Equities 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTwo Defensible Ways of Estimating Expected Returns 198\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e“Naïve” Long-Run Historical Average 198\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHistorical 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eArgument for Continued Outperformance 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eArgument Against Continued Outperformance 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRole of Valuation 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValuation-Based Expected Return for Equities 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOther Valuation Approaches 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Price\/Book “Formula” 207\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExpected Return 207\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOur Preferred Methods 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReasonable Estimates for Expected Volatility 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTime Frame 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe VIX 209\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImplied Versus Realized 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Case for 20% Long-Run Stock Market Volatility 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExpected Returns and Volatility – Bonds 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExpected Returns and Volatility – Cash 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExpected Return and Volatility – Gold 213\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExpected Return and Volatility – Gold Stocks 214\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExpected Return and Volatility – Managed Futures 214\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCautions 216\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExpected Returns and Volatility – Real Estate 218\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCovariance Matrix 219\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Covariances\/Correlations to Use 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCovariances and Portfolio Formation 221\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStock Market Return Correlations Over Time 222\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCalculating Expected Returns and Volatilities for a Multi-Asset Portfolio 225\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCalculating the Return and Variance of a Portfolio 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReturn 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVariance (Volatility) 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExample with Six Assets 227\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMatrix Algebra 228\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExpected Returns 229\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVariance 230\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 13: Portfolio Simulations 233\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimulating a Variety of Portfolios Based on Cash and the World Equity Market 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePortfolio 0 235\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImplications 243\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 246\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 14: Professional Advice 247\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePersonal Financial Planners 248\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWho Should Consider Professional Advice 248\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFinancial Literacy 249\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFINRA’s Quiz 249\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInterpreting the FINRA Quiz 251\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNumeracy 252\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAside on the Rule of 72 252\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFinancial Literacy and Professional Advice 253\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Professionals Add Value 254\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Much Value Financial Planners Add 255\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePlanner Value Added – “Gamma” 256\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFactors to Consider When Selecting an Advisor 257\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAlpha 258\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBeta 258\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGamma 258\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAdvisor Characteristics 259\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntegrity 259\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIncentives 260\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSkill 260\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePersonality 261\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChecklist 263\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 15: From Theory to Practice 265\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAppendix: Some Math of Diversification 269\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVariance 269\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStandard Deviation 270\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExamples Using Bet of Coin Flip with Positive Expected Value 271\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndependent Events – The Key to Reducing Risk 273\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRandom Variables 274\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBinomial Distribution 276\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNormal Distribution 277\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCovariance 278\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSum of Variances 279\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBinomial Expansion 280\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeights 280\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVariance of a Portfolio 281\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCorrelation Coefficient 281\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDemonstration That If Assets Are Correlated, Risk Can Never Be Eliminated 282\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Much Diversification Is Enough? 283\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEqual Weighting Versus Market Capitalization Weighting 285\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReasons to Prefer Equal Weighting 286\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTheory 286\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMarket-Capitalization Weighting 288\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMarket-Cap Weighting and Statistical Bias 289\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDiversification Within an Asset Class and Between Asset Classes 290\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWithin an Asset Class 290\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUnified Asset Classes 290\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGold 290\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTreasury Bills and Money Market Instruments 291\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSovereign Government Own-Fiat-Money Bonds 291\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDispersed Asset Classes 292\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBonds 292\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTheoretical Example of Diversifying Bond Default Risk 292\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAsymmetrical Risk 294\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStocks 294\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcross How Many Stock Markets Should You Diversify? 294\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Stable Are the Parameters? 298\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusions: How Many Countries? 299\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStatistical Normality 299\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Many Stocks Within a Country? 302\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMedian Expected Return 303\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Effect of Errors in Parameter Estimation 306\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eError in Estimation 306\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnother Point of View 307\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 311\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThree Free Offers for Readers 339\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eROGER D. SILK \u003c\/b\u003e holds a Ph.D. in applied economics from Stanford. He has served as CEO of Sterling Foundation Management since 1998. Silk earned his CFA in 1990 and has been writing about personal finance since then. He writes the highly respected blog \u003ci\u003eSterling Insights\u003c\/i\u003e, and is the author of \u003ci\u003ePoliticians Spend, We Pay\u003c\/i\u003e, and \u003ci\u003eManaging Foundations and Charitable Trusts\u003c\/i\u003e. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eKATHERINE A. SILK \u003c\/b\u003e has an MA in history and BA in economics from Stanford. She was a management consultant prior to founding Strategic Startup Advisors. Silk is a frequent contributor to \u003ci\u003eSterling Insights \u003c\/i\u003eblog.   \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eYou know how sometimes you feel that you should be doing a better job of investing? You’re not alone. In many ways, the typical approach to personal investing is broken. There’s too much noise, too many unsubstantiated opinions, and too little understanding.  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn \u003ci\u003eThe Investor’s Dilemma Decoded\u003c\/i\u003e, authors Roger Silk (Ph.D. in applied economics from Stanford) and his daughter Katherine Silk (MA in history and BA in economics from Stanford) turn down the noise, replace opinion with fact, and provide you with a framework for how to think about almost any personal investing problem you might face. Whether you do your own investing, or employ the services of a dedicated professional (see Chapter 14), you’ll be in a position to make informed, thoughtful, good decisions, and reach your goals.  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe authors have taken great care to explain clearly many important concepts that investors should know, but often haven’t had the opportunity to learn. Some of these are basic, such as why and how a dollar now is worth more than a dollar in the future, and how to calculate it. For others you could search far and wide, and unless you knew where to look in the academic literature, you’d be unlikely to discover answers. Among these are:  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eWhat actually generates investment returns? (Hint: it’s not what you usually hear). \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIs owning a home an investment? (Know the history and theory to understand why or why not). \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eShould you own gold?\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eWhat most people, including professionals who should know better, get wrong about commodity investing. \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow true statements about returns can be very misleading, and potentially dangerous. \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eWhat risk is, and isn’t, and why the “safe” course might be the riskiest (but the government says it’s safe). \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eCan professional financial advisors add value to their individual clients? (Yes, but not by picking the best stocks).\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003c\/ul\u003e    \u003cp\u003e \u003csmall\u003ePRAISE FOR\u003c\/small\u003e \u003cb\u003eTHE INVESTOR’S DILEMMA DECODED\u003c\/b\u003e  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“Are you looking for a well-informed, logical approach to personal finance? If so, \u003ci\u003eThe Investor’s Dilemma Decoded \u003c\/i\u003eby Roger and Katherine Silk is the book for you. It is clear, accurate, and persuasive. Over the decades of your life, it could make the difference between mediocrity and comfort, and subpar returns vs. excellence.” \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e—TYLER COWEN, \u003c\/b\u003e American economist and columnist, Professor, George Mason University  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“\u003ci\u003eThe Investor’s Dilemma Decoded \u003c\/i\u003eis extremely well written. One of the most thorough and comprehensive primers on investments. I highly recommend it to anyone who wants to raise their knowledge of investments.” \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e—THOMAS C . MYERS,\u003c\/b\u003e CFA, CFP\u003csup\u003e®\u003c\/sup\u003e, CPA, CEO and Senior Wealth Advisor, Bordeaux Wealth Advisors  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“Easy-to-understand, rock-solid explanation of how a variety of investment assets actually work. A great reference source for potential investors and financial planners alike.” \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e—BRUCE POPPER,\u003c\/b\u003e CFP\u003csup\u003e®\u003c\/sup\u003e, AEP\u003csup\u003e®\u003c\/sup\u003e, CHFC\u003csup\u003e®\u003c\/sup\u003e, Senior Estate Planning Consultant, Wealth Advisory Group  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“Anyone who is investing money or considering investing should read this book. Author Roger Silk’s book is a ‘playbook’ for successful lifelong investing. The advice and counsel of a qualified financial advisor cannot be overstated.” \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e—JAMES A . “JIMMY” JACOBS,\u003c\/b\u003e CLU\u003csup\u003e®\u003c\/sup\u003e, CHFC\u003csup\u003e®\u003c\/sup\u003e, President, Milestone Financial Solutions\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47990269837541,"sku":"NP9781394220359","price":29.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781394220359.jpg?v=1761787139","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/es\/products\/the-investors-dilemma-decoded-isbn-9781394220359","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}