{"product_id":"the-art-of-contrarian-trading-isbn-9780470325070","title":"The Art of Contrarian Trading","description":"Why is it so hard to beat the market? How can you avoid getting caught in bubbles and crashes? You will find the answers in Carl Futia’s new book, \u003ci\u003eThe Art of Contrarian Trading\u003c\/i\u003e. This book will teach you Futia’s novel method of contrarian trading from the ground up.  \u003cp\u003eIn 16 chapters filled with facts and many historical examples Futia explains the principles and practice of contrarian trading. Discover the Edge which separates winning speculators from the losers. Find out how to apply the No Free Lunch principle to identify profitable trading methods.  Learn about the wisdom and the follies of investment crowds – and how crowds are formed by information cascades that drive stock prices too high or too low relative to fair value. Discover the power of your Media Diary - and how to use it to spot these information cascades, measure the strength of the crowd’s beliefs, and decide when the crowd’s view is about to be proven wrong.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eYou will watch Futia apply these principles of contrarian trading to navigate safely and profitably through the last 26 tumultuous years of roller coaster swings in the U.S. stock market – a time during which Futia kept his own media diary and developed his Grand Strategy of Contrarian Trading.  See how this Grand Strategy worked during the Great Bull Market of 1982-2000. Watch the Contrarian Rebalancing technique in practice during the dot.com crash of 2000-2002. Find out when the Aggressive Contrarian Trader bought and sold during the bull market of 2002-2007. Read about the causes of the Panic of 2008 and ups and downs of contrarian trading during that dangerous time.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFutia shows you how the market turning points during the 1982-2008 period were foreshadowed by magazine covers and newspaper headlines that astonishingly and consistently encouraged investors to do the wrong thing at the wrong time. By monitoring crowd beliefs revealed by news media headlines – and with the guidance provided by the many historical examples Futia provides – a trader or investor will be well-equipped to anticipate and profit from market turning points.\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cb\u003ePreface.\u003c\/b\u003e  \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 1 Can You Beat the Market?\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Speculator's Edge.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLending a Helping Hand to Investors.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUncovering Market Mistakes.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLooking at the Evidence.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMarket Timing.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCatch 22.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 2 Market Mistakes.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEfficient Markets.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRoller Coasters and Stock Markets.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDo Stock Prices Fluctuate Too Much?\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Look at Behavioral Finance.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBehavioral Finance and Exploitable Market Mistakes.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNo Free Lunch Redux.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 3 The Edge.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Theory of Market Mistakes.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo Get Along, Go Along.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGo Along and Create a Mistake.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Social Calculus of Crowds.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Vision of a Contrarian Trader.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 4 The Wisdom and Follies of Crowds.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCan a Crowd Be Wiser Than Its Members?\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Need for Collective Wisdom.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndependent Decisions in the Financial Markets.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Market Psychology.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInformation Cascades into the Whirlpool of Speculation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 5 The Life Cycle and Psychology of an Investment Crowd.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrologue.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Cycle of Birth and Death.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Stock Market Bubble of 1994-2000.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt's Different This Time: The New Information Economy.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eShattered Dreams: The Bear Crowd of 2001-2002.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePopular Instincts and the Search for Certainty.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Pied Pipers of Investment Crowds.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Mental Unity of Investment Crowds.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuggestibility, Volatility, and Disintegration.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 6 The Historical Context for Market Mistakes.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMature Investment Themes and Market Crowds.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMistakes versus Fair Value.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMarket Data Sources.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Deadly Mistake.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhen Is the Stock Market (Extremely) Overvalued?\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhen is the Stock Market Undervalued?\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Peak Oil Bubble.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 7 How Crowds Communicate.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Do Information Cascades Tell Investors?\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Role of the Mass Media.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Word about Personal Flexibility and the Future of Media.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonitoring the Markets.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStudying the History of Bubbles and Crashes.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 8 Constructing Your Media Diary.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGaining the Edge.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow My Diary Made a Difference in 2002.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGet Ready to Cut and Paste.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcerpts from My Media Diary: November 2005.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcerpts from My Media Diary: June 2006.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInterpreting Magazine Covers.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 9 Important Investment Themes.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTelling the Market's Story.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNew Eras.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEffect of War and International Political Crises on the Stock Market.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFinancial Crises Create Crowds.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNew Industries and Companies.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommodity Booms.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInterest Rate Movements and the Bond Market.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsing Your Media Diary to Track Investment Themes.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 10 Interpreting Your Diary: Market Semiotics.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMedia and Information Cascades.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eYour Media Diary: A Living History of Information Cascades.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSemiotics: The Study of Signs.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Most Important Sign: The Price Chart.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMagazine Cover Stories.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNewspaper Headlines.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFront Page Stories and Editorials.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCrystallizing Events.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Weight of the Evidence.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMore on Market Semiotics.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 11 The Grand Strategy of Contrarian Trading.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContrarian Investment Planning.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContrarian Trader's Investment Portfolio.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Investment Goal of the Contrarian Trader.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Warning about Capital Gains Taxes.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContrarian Trading Strategy #1: Don't Speculate.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContrarian Trading Strategy #2: Don't Invest with the Crowd.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContrarian Trading Strategy #3: Contrarian Rebalancing.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Aggressive Contrarian.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Long-Only Strategy for the Aggressive Contrarian Trader.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMore Aggressive Contrarian Trading Strategies.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 12 The Great Bull Market of 1982-2000.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrologue.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe 1987 Crash.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInterlude: The 1929-1932 Crash and Bear Market.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe S\u0026amp;L Crisis, the 1987-1990 Bull Market, and the 1990 Bear Market Crowd.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRally without Joy, 1991-1994.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Stock Market Bubble Inflates, 1995-2000.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Aggressive Contrarian Faces the 1987 Crash.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe 1990 Low.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLong Term Capital Management Goes Bust.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 13 Collapse of the Bubble: The 2000-2002 Bear Market.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe End of the Great Bull Market.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContrarian Rebalancing during the 2000-2002 Bear Market.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Long Way Down Again.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContrarian Rebalancing during the Crash.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Aggressive Contrarian During the 2000-2002 Bear Market.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Wall Street Wreck.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Summer Rally.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe March 2001 Plunge.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTerrorists Attack on 9\/11.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnd of a Bear Market.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTransition to a New Bull Market.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 14 The Postbubble Bull Market of 2002-2007.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEscaping the Bear's Claw\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Bull? Looking for Signs of a Bullish Information Cascade.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Story of Google's IPO.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Housing Bubble.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAggressive Contrarian Trading during the 2002-2007 Bull Market.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eApril 2005—A Buying Opportunity.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eJune 2006—Another Buying Opportunity.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAggressive Contrarian Trading in Early 2007.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eJuly-October 2007.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 15 The Panic of 2008.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Conservative Contrarian during the Panic.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Mortgage Mess.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Debt-Deflation Spiral Takes Hold.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLenders of Last Resort.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Credit Crisis and the Contrarian Trader.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBull Market Top and the First Step Down.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Bear Stearns Failure.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFannie and Freddie.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Crash: Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eCHAPTER 16 Vignettes on Contrarian Thought and Practice.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eThe Psychology of the Stock Market\u003c\/i\u003e.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Godfather of Contrary Opinion.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOpinion Polls: What Do \u003ci\u003eYou\u003c\/i\u003e Think?\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIs The Odd Lotter Always Wrong?\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Forecasting Giant of the Past.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePaul Montgomery, The Magazine Cover Contrarian.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIrrational Exuberance and Other Bubbles.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValue Investing—A Back of the Envelope Approach.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAbout the Author.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eIndex.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cb\u003eCARL FUTIA\u003c\/b\u003e is a trader who runs a highly rated investment\/trading blog (carlfutia.blogspot.com). He provides very specific price forecasts for the stock, bond, and various commodity markets. Futia's main tools are derived from the theory of contrary opinion and box theory. He holds a BA in economics from Yale University, a master's degree in mathematics from the University of California at Berkeley, and a PhD in mathematical economics from Berkeley as well. Futia has published several papers in theoretical economics in scholarly journals.  Contrarian theory in investing and trading is based on the idea that markets are driven in large part by crowd behavior. When crowds form around investing themes in the stock market, they push stock prices too high or too low relative to fair value. Contrarians hold that if investment crowds are responsible for the pricing mistakes made by the stock market, it logically follows that you can do better than buy-and-hold if you can detect those situations in which an investment crowd has driven the stock market too high or too low relative to fair value. \u003ci\u003eThe Art of Contrarian Trading\u003c\/i\u003e shows how to take advantage of the crowd's periodic bouts of enthusiasm and fear, and make wise investment choices that most others may think are ill-advised.  \u003cp\u003eVeteran trader Carl Futia explains the contrarian trader's principal tool: his media diary. Since major market turning points are almost always foreshadowed by magazine covers and newspaper headlines that turn out to be completely wrong, by monitoring crowd behavior through both quantitative indicators and news media headlines—and with the hindsight of historical examples—a trader or investor will be well equipped to profit from market turning points. Futia shows specifically how the information contained in a media diary can be interpreted and then coordinated with a statistical view of a market's current and past swings. By looking back at the bull market of 1982–2000, the 2000–2002 bear market, the bull market of 2002–2007, and the crash of 2008, he reveals how his own media diary effectively identified the many valuation mistakes the stock market made during those years. In addition, he explains the development of the theory of contrary opinion, highlights the contributions key individuals made to the theory, briefly discusses several books every contrarian should read, and offers a quick primer on value investing for the contrarian trader.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe contrarian trader, says Futia, is not in the business of predicting stock market highs and lows or of making correct forecasts of any kind. Instead, his focus is on a single objective—that of achieving a higher return than that earned by the buy-and-hold strategy. This book will show you how to achieve this elusive goal.\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cb\u003ePraise For\u003cbr\u003e The Art of Contrarian Trading\u003c\/b\u003e  \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eA practical guide to profiting from the crowd's investment mistakes\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"Most authors totally overlook the ultimate investment problem; which is the fact that our own observations continually alter the outcome. Thankfully, Carl Futia shows us the way out of this analytic cul-de-sac, and the way toward excess returns: If we have the right stuff to follow him.\"\u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e—Paul Macrae Montgomery,\u003c\/b\u003e Owner and CEO, Montgomery Capital Management\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eThe Art of Contrarian Trading\u003c\/i\u003e reveals techniques for identifying and exploiting the investment opportunities that arise when crowd-based groupthink causes markets to become overvalued or undervalued.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWritten by leading investment blogger Carl Futia, this book explains in detail why mar-kets are driven by crowd behavior and shows how crowd-based groupthink connects with the theory of efficient markets. Futia offers a practical approach to contrarian trading, with specific strategies for both the conservative and the aggressive contrarian trader. He shows how to use technical indicators and quantitative information in combination with media headlines to determine when market sentiment has gotten far out of hand, providing the tools to measure crowd behavior and spot situations where it's time to takea position against the crowd—while also helping you remain objective.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47990160982245,"sku":"NP9780470325070","price":60.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9780470325070.jpg?v=1761786737","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/es\/products\/the-art-of-contrarian-trading-isbn-9780470325070","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}