Secrets of the Canadian Real Estate Cycle

Canadian real estate investors often hear about real estate cycles, yet very few people can describe what they are and how to actually use them to one's advantage. The Canadian Investor's Guide to Secrets of the Real Estate Cycle will show Canadian investors the ins and outs of the various phases of the real estate cycle, such as boom, slump and recovery, in order to equip them with the knowledge to make practical and informed decisions about their portfolios.

Written by Canada's top-selling real estate investor and author Don Campbell and Kieran Trass, a leading expert on real estate cycles, the book will drill down into the various causes that affect real estate trends, such as local and global economics, population migration, employment levels, affordability of rental housing, real estate listings and other factors, to provide a scientific basis for assessing current trends and where those trends are heading. Complete with charts, checklists, and real-life stories, The Canadian Investor's Guide to Secrets of the Real Estate Cycle will be an indispensable guide for all investors.

Introduction 1

Part I Key Message: The Real Estate Cycle: Your Key to Strategic Investing 5

Chapter 1: The Strategic Investor Mindset 9

Chapter 2: What Is the Real Estate Cycle? 19

Chapter 3: Market Predictability and the Real Estate Cycle Clock 31

Chapter 4: Key Drivers of the Real Estate Cycle 37

Chapter 5: Beware the Market Influencers of the Real Estate Cycle 49

Chapter 6: The Boom Phase 65

Chapter 7: The Slump Phase 81

Chapter 8: The Recovery Phase 91

Part II Key Message: Putting the Real Estate Cycle to Work in the Canadian Market 99

Chapter 9: Critical Transition Points: Toronto—Boom to Slump 105

Chapter 10: The Toronto Market: Focus on Key Drivers 119

Chapter 11: Critical Transition Points: Calgary—Slump to Recovery to Boom 133

Chapter 12: The Calgary Market—From Hindsight to Foresight 145

Part III Key Message: Learn the Strategic Real Estate Investor Way 159

Chapter 13: Setting Goals like a Strategic Real Estate Investor 165

Chapter 14: The ABC Strategy: How Strategic Investors Plan for the Real Estate Cycle 179

Chapter 15: Investment Tactics throughout the Cycle 185

Chapter 16: Tactics and Risk Management 205

Chapter 17: Tactics and Financing 217

Part IV Key Message: Canadian Strategic Real Estate Investors 227

Chapter 18: Investor Profile: Michael Lawson 231

Chapter 19: Investor Profile: Bryon Howard 239

Chapter 20: Investor Profile: Tony and Jo-Ann Peters 247

Chapter 21: Investor Profile: Chris Black 257

Chapter 22: Are You a Strategic Real Estate Investor? 265

Appendix: The Key Driver Scorecard 269

Acknowledgements 270

About the Authors 272

Other Contributors 277

Index 284

About the Authors:

Don R. Campbell is the author of the Canadian bestseller Real Estate Investing in Canada 2.0, a book that provides indispensable advice to real estate investors. The creator and advocate of the Authentic Canadian Real Estate System, Campbell is president of the Real Estate Investment Network (REIN). REIN membership exceeds 3,500 successful Canadian investors whose investment in Canadian residential real estate tops $3.3 billion.

Please visit www.DonRCampbell.com for Don’s latest research and analysis of the cycles, his seminar schedule and information on REIN.

Kieran Trass is an international real estate cycle expert who has extensively researched and applied his methodology on cycles for over two decades. His investment company, Hybrid Group, is based in New Zealand and specializes in residential real estate.

For mentoring inquiries, public speaking engagements and research assignment requests, contact: Kieran@TellMeTheTime.com

Greg Head is an IT executive, whose passion for investing in real estate has allowed him to create a successful portfolio of residential and commercial properties. His investing expertise and knowledge of real estate cycles has made him a sought-after speaker at real estate events across Canada.

Christine Ruptash is the president of Strategic Real Estate Solutions, a private investment firm that focuses on residential real estate.

For information on Greg’s speaking engagements or to contact Christine about investment opportunities please visit www.strategicrealestatesolutions.ca.

Is that it? Is the Canadian real estate boom finally ending? After a long-running boom in the real estate market, many involved in the realm of Canadian real estate expect to see a period of slower growth or declining values, but this doesn’t mean that investors necessarily need to cool their heels, sell everything or go on a buying spree. The reality is that all real estate markets around the world operate on a cycle, from Boom to Slump, Slump to Recovery, and from Recovery back to Boom. The key for investors is to be able to identify exactly where in the real estate cycle their target area is and how to take advantage of this knowledge, as there is money to be made in all of the phases.

The real estate cycle has been in existence for a long time yet many investors have little understanding of how it materially impacts real estate over time. An entire real estate cycle can typically take a decade or more to complete, which can explain why many home buyers and investors fail to recognize that there is a cycle at all. But once you understand the cycle and what drives it, you become empowered to use your knowledge of the cycle to your advantage. During the specific phases of the real estate cycle there are “cyclically sensible” actions that wise investors take, and other actions they avoid, because they are not “cyclically sensible.” Another key element of the cycle is the availability of financing, which is directly related to the phases of the cycle.

Written by a team of investment professionals that includes Don R Campbell, Canada’s top-selling real estate author; Kieran Trass, a leading international expert on real estate cycles; Greg Head, a Canadian investment specialist; and writer and real estate entrepreneur Christine Ruptash, you’ll learn about the key factors that drive cycles, and those that have lesser impact, to enable you to assess your local market and decide which investment tactics will produce the best results for you.

Complete with charts, checklists, and real-life stories, Secrets of the Canadian Real Estate Cycle is an indispensable guide that will teach you how to become a strategic investor and profit in every market.