{"product_id":"medical-decision-making-isbn-9781119627807","title":"Medical Decision Making","description":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eMEDICAL DECISION MAKING\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eDetailed resource showing how to best make medical decisions while incorporating clinical practice guidelines and decision support systems\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSir William Osler, a legendary physician of an earlier era, once said, \"Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability.\" In Osler’s day, and now, decisions about treatment often cannot wait until the diagnosis is certain. \u003ci\u003eMedical Decision Making\u003c\/i\u003e is about how to make the best possible decision given that uncertainty. The book shows how to tailor decisions under uncertainty to achieve the best outcome based on published evidence, features of a patient’s illness, and the patient’s preferences.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eMedical Decision Making \u003c\/i\u003edescribes a powerful framework for helping clinicians and their patients reach decisions that lead to outcomes that the patient prefers. That framework contains the key principles of patient-centered decision-making in clinical practice.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSince the first edition of Medical Decision Making in 1988, the authors have focused on explaining key concepts and illustrating them with clinical examples. For the Third Edition, every chapter has been revised and updated.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWritten by four distinguished and highly qualified authors, \u003ci\u003eMedical Decision Making\u003c\/i\u003e includes information on:\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to consider the possible causes of a patient’s illness and decide on the probability of the most important diagnoses.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to measure the accuracy of a diagnostic test.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to help patients express their concerns about the risks that they face and how an illness may affect their lives.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to describe uncertainty about how an illness may change over time.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to construct and analyze decision trees.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to identify the threshold for doing a test or starting treatment\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to apply these concepts to the design of practice guidelines and medical policy making.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eMedical Decision Making\u003c\/i\u003e is a valuable resource for clinicians, medical trainees, and students of decision analysis who wish to fully understand and apply the principles of decision making to clinical practice.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForeword xi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface xiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 Introduction 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1 How may I be thorough yet efficient when considering the possible causes of my patient’s problems? 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2 How do I characterize the information I have gathered during the medical interview and physical examination? 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.3 How do I interpret new diagnostic information? 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.4 How do I select the appropriate diagnostic test? 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.5 How do I choose among several risky treatment alternatives? 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 Differential diagnosis 5\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1 An introduction 5\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2 How clinicians make a diagnosis 5\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3 The principles of hypothesis- driven differential diagnosis 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.4 An extended example 14\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 Probability: quantifying uncertainty 18\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1 Uncertainty and probability in medicine 18\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2 How to determine a probability 21\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3 Sources of error in using personal experience to estimate the probability 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4 The role of empirical evidence in quantifying uncertainty 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.5 Limitations of published studies of disease prevalence 35\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6 Taking the special characteristics of the patient into account when determining probabilities 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 37\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Interpreting new information: Bayes’ theorem 38\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.1 Introduction 38\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2 Conditional probability defined 40\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3 Bayes’ theorem 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4 The odds ratio form of Bayes’ theorem 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.5 Lessons to be learned from using Bayes’ theorem 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.6 The assumptions of Bayes’ theorem 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.7 Using Bayes’ theorem to interpret a sequence of tests 54\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.8 Using Bayes’ theorem when many diseases are under consideration 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Measuring the accuracy of clinical findings 58\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1 A language for describing test results 58\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2 The measurement of diagnostic test performance 62\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3 How to measure diagnostic test performance: a hypothetical example 67\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4 Pitfalls of predictive value 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5 How to perform a high quality study of diagnostic test performance 70\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.6 Spectrum bias in the measurement of test performance 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.7 When to be concerned about inaccurate measures of test performance 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.8 Test results as a continuous variable: the ROC curve 81\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.9 Combining data from studies of test performance: the systematic review and meta- analysis 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.5.1 Appendix: derivation of the method for using an ROC curve to choose the definition of an abnormal test result 89\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 91\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 Decision trees – representing the structure of a decision problem 93\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1 Introduction 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2 Key concepts and terminology 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3 Constructing the decision tree for a hypothetical decision problem 96\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4 Constructing the decision tree for a medical decision problem 103\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEpilogue 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7 Decision tree analysis 113\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1 Introduction 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2 Folding- back operation 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.3 Sensitivity analysis 126\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEpilogue 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8 Outcome utility – representing risk attitudes 134\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.1 Introduction 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2 What are risk attitudes? 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3 Demonstration of risk attitudes in a medical context 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4 General observations about outcome utilities 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5 Determining outcome utilities – underlying concepts 151\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEpilogue 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9 Outcome utilities – clinical applications 159\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.1 Introduction 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2 A parametric model for outcome utilities 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3 Incorporating risk attitudes into clinical policies 172\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4 Helping patients communicate their preferences 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEpilogue 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.9.1 Exponential utility model parameter nomogram 186\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e10 Outcome utilities – adjusting for the quality of life 189\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.1 Introduction 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2 Example – why the quality of life matters 190\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3 Quality- lifetime tradeoff models 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4 Quality- survival tradeoff models 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.5 What does it all mean? – an extended example 209\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEpilogue 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e11 Survival models: representing uncertainty about the length of life 218\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.1 Introduction 218\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2 Survival model basics 219\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3 Medical example – survival after breast cancer recurrence 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.4 Exponential survival model 228\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.5 Actuarial survival models 232\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.6 Two- part survival models 235\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEpilogue 247\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 247\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e12 Markov models 248\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.1 Introduction 248\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.2 Markov model basics 249\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.3 Determining transition probabilities 259\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4 Markov model analysis – an overview 269\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEpilogue 277\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 277\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e13 Selection and interpretation of diagnostic tests 278\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.1 Introduction 278\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2 Four principles of decision making 279\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3 The threshold probability for treatment 281\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.4 Threshold probabilities for testing 288\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.5 Clinical application of the threshold model of decision making 293\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.6 Accounting for the non- diagnostic effects of undergoing a test 296\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.7 Sensitivity analysis 298\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.8 Decision curve analysis 300\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 302\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e14 Medical decision analysis in practice: advanced methods 303\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.1 An overview of advanced modeling techniques 303\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.2 Use of medical decision- making concepts to analyze a policy problem: the cost- effectiveness of screening for HIV 305\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3 Use of medical decision- making concepts to analyze a clinical diagnostic problem: strategies to diagnose tumors in the lung 313\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4 Calibration and validation of decision models 317\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5 Use of complex models for individual- patient decision making 319\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 321\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e15 Cost- effectiveness analysis 323\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.1 The clinician’s conflicting roles: patient advocate member of society and entrepreneur 323\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2 Cost- effectiveness analysis: a method for comparing management strategies 325\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3 Cost–benefit analysis: a method for measuring the net benefit of medical services 330\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.4 Methodological best practices for cost- effectiveness analysis 332\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.5 Reference case for cost- effectiveness analysis 333\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.6 Impact inventory for cataloguing consequences 334\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.7 Measuring the health effects of medical care 334\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.8 Measuring the costs of medical care 335\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.9 Interpretation of cost- effectiveness analysis and use in decision making 337\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.10 Limitations of cost- effectiveness analyses 337\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 338\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 340\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eHarold C. Sox\u003c\/b\u003e is Emeritus Professor of Medicine and of the Dartmouth Institute at Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, USA. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eMichael C. Higgins\u003c\/b\u003e is Adjunct Professor at the Stanford Center for Biomedical Informatics Research, Stanford University, USA. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eDouglas K. Owens\u003c\/b\u003e is a general internist and Professor and Chair of the Department of Health Policy, School of Medicine, and Director of Stanford Health Policy, Freeman-Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, USA. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eGillian Sanders Schmidler\u003c\/b\u003e is Professor of Population Health Sciences and Medicine at Duke University and Deputy Director of the Duke-Margolis Institute for Health Policy, Durham, USA.   \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eDetailed resource showing how to best make medical decisions while incorporating clinical practice guidelines and decision support systems\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eSir William Osler, a legendary physician of an earlier era, once said, “Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability.” In Osler’s day, and now, decisions about treatment often cannot wait until the diagnosis is certain. \u003ci\u003eMedical Decision Making\u003c\/i\u003e is about how to make the best possible decision given that uncertainty. The book shows how to tailor decisions under uncertainty to achieve the best outcome based on published evidence, features of a patient’s illness, and the patient’s preferences. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eMedical Decision Making \u003c\/i\u003edescribes a powerful framework for helping clinicians and their patients reach decisions that lead to outcomes that the patient prefers. That framework contains the key principles of patient-centered decision-making in clinical practice. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eSince the first edition of Medical Decision Making in 1988, the authors have focused on explaining key concepts and illustrating them with clinical examples. For the Third Edition, every chapter has been revised and updated. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWritten by four distinguished and highly qualified authors, \u003ci\u003eMedical Decision Making\u003c\/i\u003e includes information on: \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eHow to consider the possible causes of a patient’s illness and decide on the probability of the most important diagnoses.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to measure the accuracy of a diagnostic test.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to help patients express their concerns about the risks that they face and how an illness may affect their lives.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to describe uncertainty about how an illness may change over time.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to construct and analyze decision trees.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to identify the threshold for doing a test or starting treatment\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to apply these concepts to the design of practice guidelines and medical policy making.\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003c\/ul\u003e \u003ci\u003eMedical Decision Making\u003c\/i\u003e is a valuable resource for clinicians, medical trainees, and students of decision analysis who wish to fully understand and apply the principles of decision making to clinical practice.","brand":"Wiley-Blackwell","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47989600911589,"sku":"NP9781119627807","price":53.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781119627807.jpg?v=1761784763","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/es\/products\/medical-decision-making-isbn-9781119627807","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}