{"product_id":"making-better-decisions-isbn-9781444336511","title":"Making Better Decisions","description":"\u003ci\u003eMaking Better Decisions\u003c\/i\u003e introduces readers to some of the principal aspects of decision theory, and examines how these might lead us to make better decisions.  \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eIntroduces readers to key aspects of decision theory and examines how they might help us make better decisions\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003ePresentation of material encourages readers to imagine a situation and make a decision or a judgment\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eOffers a broad coverage of the subject including major insights from several sub-disciplines: microeconomic theory, decision theory, game theory, social choice, statistics, psychology, and philosophy\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eExplains these insights informally in a language that has minimal mathematical notation or jargon, even when describing and interpreting mathematical theorems\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eCritically assesses the theory presented within the text, as well as some of its critiques\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIncludes a web resource for teachers and students\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e  \u003ci\u003ePreface\u003c\/i\u003e viii  \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eAcknowledgments\u003c\/i\u003e x\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 Background 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuggested Reading 5\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 Judgment and Choice Biases 6\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 6\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems – Group A 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems – Group B 12\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFraming Effects 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBrainstorming and Formal Models 20\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEndowment Effect 22\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSunk Costs 27\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDecision Trees 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRepresentativeness Heuristic 34\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAvailability Heuristic 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnchoring 44\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMental Accounting 46\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDynamic Inconsistency 51\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 53\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 Consuming Statistical Data 57\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems 58\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConditional Probabilities 63\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGambler’s Fallacy 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBiased Samples 77\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRegression to the Mean 80\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCorrelation and Causation 81\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStatistical Significance 84\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBayesian and Classical Statistics 85\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Decisions under Risk 98\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 98\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems 99\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Independence Axiom 102\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVon Neumann and Morgenstern's Result 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMeasurement of Utility 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk Aversion 116\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProspect Theory 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 130\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Decisions under Uncertainty 133\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSubjective Probability 141\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLearning From the Fact We Know 151\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCausality 163\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Sure Thing Principle 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAlternative Models 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eObjective Probabilities 172\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 Well-Being and Happiness 178\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 178\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems – Group A 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems – Group B 180\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMeasurement Issues 184\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat's Happiness? 186\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExercises 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAppendix A: Optimal Choice 191\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAppendix B: Probability and Statistics 195\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eSolutions 204\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eIndex\u003c\/i\u003e 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cb\u003eItzhak Gilboa\u003c\/b\u003e is a chaired Professor in the Department of Economics and Decision Sciences at HEC, Paris and in the Eitan Berglas School of Economics at Tel Aviv University, and Fellow of the Cowles Foundation at Yale University. He previously held the position of chaired Professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. Gilboa’s research focuses on decision under uncertainty. He has worked with David Schmeidler on axiomatic foundation of non-Bayesian decision theory and contributed to research in complexity in game theory, evolutionary game theory, and social choice. He is co-author of \u003ci\u003eA Theory of Case-Based Decisions\u003c\/i\u003e (with David Schmeidler, 2001), and author of \u003ci\u003eTheory of Decision under Uncertainty\u003c\/i\u003e (2009) and of \u003ci\u003eRational Choice\u003c\/i\u003e (2010).  \u003ci\u003eMaking Better Decisions: Decision Theory in Practice\u003c\/i\u003e introduces readers to some of the principal ideas from decision theory and examines how they might help us make better decisions.  \u003cp\u003eThe presentation is designed to appeal to students and the general reader; based on problems, readers are encouraged to imagine a situation, and then make a decision or a judgment. The problems are chosen to exemplify some principles developed in decision theory, as well as violations of these principles derived from the psychological literature. \u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eMaking Better Decisions\u003c\/i\u003e offers explanations of both the theories we would like to adopt in order to make better decisions, and the theories that explain how those around us behave. In doing so, the book presents crucial insights into the decision-making process that can influence and change our behavior and our ability to interact with those around us.\u003c\/p\u003e  “The book is a modern take on decision making. The innovative scope will inspire instructors by encouraging them to include a combination rather than a subset of decision-theoretic, statistical, behavioral, and philosophical concepts in their courses.\"\u003cbr\u003e —Marzena J. Rostek, University of Wisconsin  \u003cp\u003e“Written by a leading authority and teacher in the area of decision theory, this is a terrific combined textbook–handbook for students and practitioners of management. Indeed, it is a terrific book for everyone interested in ‘making better decisions.’\"\u003cbr\u003e —Adam Brandenburger, New York University\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e“This book is extremely effective for anyone who wants to acquire quick, basic understanding of old and new concepts of decision theory, with a minimum level of technical details.”\u003cbr\u003e —Ehud Kalai, Northwestern University\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"Gilboa is one of the leaders of the revolution that has swept through the field of decision theory in the past few decades, in which mathematical methods of statistics and economics have been integrated with findings from modern psychology. In this book he provides an accessible and practical survey of the state of the art, which encourages readers to reflect on – and try to sharpen – their intuitions and habits of decision making.  It would make an excellent primary or supplementary text for an undergraduate- or masters-level course in decision theory. It should also be useful and enjoyable reading for anyone who wants to learn about concepts that can be used and mistakes that should be avoided when taking calculated risks.\"\u003cbr\u003e —Robert Nau, Duke University\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"Itzhak Gilboa is one of the deepest thinkers in modern decision theory. In this fascinating and wonderfully written book he uses the fundamental models of decision making as a basis for reflection upon several systematic patterns revealed by our everyday choices. He strikes a nice balance between analytical models, psychological insights, and pragmatism with the end goals of improving our decision making and better understanding the decisions of others.\"\u003cbr\u003e —Tomasz Strzalecki, Harvard University\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley-Blackwell","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47989554708709,"sku":"NP9781444336511","price":100.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781444336511.jpg?v=1761784576","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/es\/products\/making-better-decisions-isbn-9781444336511","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}