{"product_id":"global-dynamics-isbn-9781118922286","title":"Global Dynamics","description":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eA world model: economies, trade, migration, security and development aid.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis bookprovides the analytical capability to understand and explore the dynamics of globalisation. It is anchored in economic input-output models of over 200 countries and their relationships through trade, migration, security and development aid. The tools of complexity science are brought to bear and mathematical and computer models are developed both for the elements and for an integrated whole. Models are developed at a variety of scales ranging from the global and international trade through a European model of inter-sub-regional migration to piracy in the Gulf and the London riots of 2011. The models embrace the changing technology of international shipping, the impacts of migration on economic development along with changing patterns of military expenditure and development aid. A unique contribution is the level of spatial disaggregation which presents each of 200+ countries and their mutual interdependencies – along with some finer scale analyses of cities and regions.  This is the first global model which offers this depth of detail with fully work-out models, these provide tools for policy making at national, European and global scales.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eGlobal dynamics:\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003ePresents in depth models of global dynamics.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eProvides a world economic model of 200+ countries and their interactions through trade, migration, security and development aid.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eProvides pointers to the deployment of analytical capability through modelling in policy development.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eFeatures a variety of models that constitute a formidable toolkit for analysis and policy development.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eOffers a demonstration of the practicalities of complexity science concepts.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis book is for practitioners and policy analysts as well as those interested in mathematical model building and complexity science as well as advanced undergraduate and postgraduate level students.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes on Contributors xiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgements xvii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart I GLOBAL DYNAMICS AND THE TOOLS OF COMPLEXITY SCIENCE\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 Global Dynamics and the Tools of Complexity Science 3\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eAlan Wilson\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReference 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart II TRADE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 The Global Trade System and Its Evolution 11\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eSimone Caschili and Francesca Medda\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1 The Evolution of the Shipping and Ports’ System 11\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2 Analyses of the Cargo Ship Network 12\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3 A Complex Adaptive Systems (CASs) Perspective 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.4 Conclusions: The Benefits of a Systems Perspective 20\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 21\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1 Complexity Science and Complex Adaptive Systems: Key Characteristics 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1.1 Four Properties 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1.2 Three Mechanisms 25\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 An Interdependent Multi-layer Model for Trade 26\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eSimone Caschili, Francesca Medda, and Alan Wilson\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1 Introduction 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2 The Interdependent Multi-layer Model: Vertical Integration 27\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3 Model Layers 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3.1 Economic Layer 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3.2 Social and Cultural Layer (Socio-cultural) 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3.3 Physical Layer 34\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4 The Workings of the Model 34\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.5 Model Calibration 35\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6 Result 1: Steady State 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.7 Result 2: Estimation and Propagation of Shocks in the IMM 42\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.8 Discussion and Conclusions 48\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 48\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 A Global Inter-country Economic Model Based on Linked Input–Output Models 51\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eRobert G. Levy, Thomas P. Oléron Evans, and Alan Wilson\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.1 Introduction 51\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2 Existing Global Economic Models 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3 Description of the Model 53\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.1 Outline 53\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.2 Introduction to Input–Output Tables 53\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.3 A Single Country Model 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.4 An International Trade Model 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.5 Setting Model Coefficients from Data 58\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4 Solving the Model 58\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4.1 The Leontief Equation 58\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4.2 The Drawbacks of Mathematical Elegance 59\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4.3 Algorithm for an Iterative Solution 59\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.5 Analysis 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.5.1 Introduction 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.5.2 Simple Modelling Approaches 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.5.3 A Unified Network Approach 64\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.5.4 Comparison with a Multi-region Input–Output Model 67\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.6 Conclusions 67\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgements 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 71\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1 Modelling the ‘Rest of the World’ 71\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.2 Services Trade Data 71\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.2.1 Importing Own Exports 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.2.2 The Rest of the World for Sectors 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart III MIGRATION\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Global Migration Modelling: A Review of Key Policy Needs and Research Centres 75\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eAdam Dennett and Pablo Mateos\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1 Introduction 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2 Policy and Migration Research 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.1 Key Policy Issues in Contemporary Migration Research 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.2 Linking Policy Issues to Modelling Challenges 81\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.3 Policy-related Research Questions for Modellers 82\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.4 Other International Migration Modelling Research 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3 Conclusion 84\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 84\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1 United Kingdom 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.2 Rest of Europe 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3 Rest of the World 94\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 Estimating Inter-regional Migration in Europe 97\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eAdam Dennett and Alan Wilson\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1 Introduction 97\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2 The Spatial System and the Modelling Challenge 98\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3 Biproportional Fitting Modelling Methodology 100\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.1 Model (i) 104\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.2 Model (ii) 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.3 Model (iii) 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.4 Model (iv) 108\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.5 Model (v) 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.6 Model (vi) 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4 Model Parameter Calibration 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5 Model Experiments 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.6 Results 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.7 Conclusions and Comments on the New Framework for Estimating Inter-regional, Inter-country Migration Flows in Europe 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7 Estimating an Annual Time Series of Global Migration Flows – An Alternative Methodology for Using Migrant Stock Data 125\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eAdam Dennett\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1 Introduction 125\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2 Methodology 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2.1 Introduction 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2.2 Calculating Migration Probabilities 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2.3 Calculating Total Migrants in the Global System 130\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2.4 Generating a Consistent Time Series of Migration Probabilities 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2.5 Producing Annual Bilateral Estimates 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.3 Results and Validation 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.3.1 Introduction 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.3.2 IMEM comparison 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.3.3 UN Flow Data Comparison 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4 Discussion 138\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5 Conclusions 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart IV SECURITY\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8 Conflict Modelling: Spatial Interaction as Threat 145\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003ePeter Baudains and Alan Wilson\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.1 Introduction 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2 Conflict Intensity: Space–Time Patterning of Events 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3 Understanding Conflict Onset: Simulation-based Models 148\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4 Forecasting Global Conflict Hotspots 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5 A Spatial Model of Threat 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.6 Discussion: The Use of a Spatial Threat Measure in Models of Conflict 153\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.6.1 Threat in Models for Operational Decision-Making 153\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.6.2 Threat in a Model of Conflict Escalation 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.6.3 Threat in Modelling Global Military Expenditure 156\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.6.4 Summary 156\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9 Riots 159\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003ePeter Baudains\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.1 Introduction 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2 The 2011 Riots in London 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.1 Space–Time Interaction 162\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.2 Journey to Crime 164\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.3 Characteristics of Rioters 165\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3 Data-Driven Modelling of Riot Diffusion 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4 Statistical Modelling of Target Choice 169\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5 A Generative Model of the Riots 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6 Discussion 172\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 173\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e10 Rebellions 175\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003ePeter Baudains, Jyoti Belur, Alex Braithwaite, Elio Marchione and Shane D. Johnson\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.1 Introduction 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2 Data 176\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3 Hawkes model 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4 Results 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.5 Discussion 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e11 Spatial Interaction as Threat: Modelling Maritime Piracy 187\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eElio Marchione and Alan Wilson\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.1 The Model 187\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2 The Test Case 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3 Uses of the Model 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReference 191\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 192\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1 Volume Field of Type k Ship 192\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.2 Volume Field of Naval Units 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3 Pirates Ports and Mother Ships 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e12 Space–Time Modelling of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq 195\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eAlex Braithwaite and Shane Johnson\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.1 Introduction 195\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.2 Counterinsurgency in Iraq 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.3 Counterinsurgency Data 200\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4 Diagnoses of Space, Time and Space–Time Distributions 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4.1 Introduction 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4.2 Spatial Distribution 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4.3 Temporal Distribution 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4.4 Space–Time Distribution 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4.5 Univariate Knox Analysis 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4.6 Bivariate Knox Analysis 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.5 Concluding Comments 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e13 International Information Flows, Government Response and the Contagion of Ethnic Conflict 214\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eJanina Beiser\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.1 Introduction 214\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2 Global Information Flows 216\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3 The Effect of Information Flows on Armed Civil Conflict 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.4 The Effect of Information Flows on Government Repression 225\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.5 Conclusion 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 229\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart V AID AND DEVELOPMENT\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e14 International Development Aid: A Complex System 233\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eBelinda Wu\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.1 Introduction: A Complex Systems’ Perspective 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.2 The International Development Aid System: Definitions 234\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3 Features of International Development Aid as a Complex System 235\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.1 Introduction 235\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.2 Non-linearity 235\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.3 Connectedness 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.4 Self-Adapting and Self-Organising 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.5 Emergence 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4 Complexity and Approaches to Research 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4.1 Organisations 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4.2 The Range of Issues 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4.3 Research Approaches 240\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4.4 The Complexity Science Approach 242\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5 The Assessment of the Effectiveness of International Development Aid 242\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5.1 Whether Aid Can Be Effective 242\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5.2 Complexity in the Measurement of Aid Effectiveness 244\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5.3 Complexity in Methods\/Standards of Measurement of Aid Effectiveness 245\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5.4 Standardising Aid Effectiveness 246\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.6 Relationships and Interactions 248\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.6.1 Relationships between Donor and Recipient Countries 248\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.6.2 Relationships between Aid and Other Systems 249\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.7 Conclusions 251\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 252\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e15 Model Building for the Complex System of International Development Aid 257\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eBelinda Wu, Sean Hanna and Alan Wilson\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.1 Introduction 257\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2 Data Collection 258\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.1 Introduction 258\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.2 Aid Data 258\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.3 Trade Data 260\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.4 Security Data 261\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.5 Migration Data 261\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.6 Geographical Data 261\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.7 Data Selected 262\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3 Model Building 263\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.1 Modelling Approach 263\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.2 Alesina and Dollar Model 263\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.3 Our Models 264\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.4 Model B: Introducing Donor Interactions and Modification of the Model 267\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.5 Findings from Model B 267\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.6 Model C: Introducing Interactions with Trade System and Further Modification of the Model 267\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.7 Findings from Model C 268\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.4 Discussion and Future Work 268\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 269\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e16 Aid Allocation: A Complex Perspective 271\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eRobert J. Downes and Steven R. Bishop\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.1 Aid Allocation Networks 271\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.1.1 Introduction 271\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.1.2 Why Networks? 272\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.1.3 Donor Motivation in Aid Allocation 273\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2 Quantifying Aid via a Mathematical Model 273\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2.1 Overview of Approach 273\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2.2 Basic Set-Up 274\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2.3 The Network of Nations 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2.4 Preference Functions 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2.5 Specifying the Preference Functions 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2.6 Recipient Selection by Donors 276\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3 Application of the Model 277\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.1 Introduction 277\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.2 Scenario 1. No Feedback 277\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.3 Scenario 2. Bandwagon Feedback 281\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.4 Scenario 3. Aid Effectiveness Feedback 283\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.5 Aid Usage Mechanism 284\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.6 Application 286\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.7 Conclusions 287\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.4 Remarks 287\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgements 288\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 288\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 290\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1 Common Functional Definitions 290\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart VI GLOBAL DYNAMICS: AN INTEGRATED MODEL AND POLICY CHALLENGES\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e17 An Integrated Model 293\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eRobert G. Levy\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.1 Introduction 293\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2 Adding Migration 294\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2.1 Introduction 294\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2.2 The Familiarity Effect 295\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2.3 Consumption Similarity 301\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2.4 Conclusions 304\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.3 Adding Aid 304\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.3.1 Introduction 304\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.3.2 Estimating ‘Exportness’ 305\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.3.3 Modelling Approach 306\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.3.4 Results 306\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.3.5 Conclusions 314\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.4 Adding Security 316\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.4.1 Introduction 316\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.4.2 Literature Review 316\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.4.3 Measures of Threat and the Global Dynamics Model 317\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.4.4 Trade during Changing Security Conditions 318\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.4.5 An Experiment of Increased Threat in the Global Dynamics Model 318\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.4.6 Conclusions 322\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.5 Concluding Comments 323\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 324\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 327\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAlan Wilson\u003c\/strong\u003e, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, UK. His research interests have been concerned with many aspects of mathematical modelling and the use of models in planning in relation to all aspects of cities and regions - including demography, economic input-output modelling, transport and locational structures. He was responsible for the introduction of a number of model building techniques which are now in common use internationally. These models have been widely used in areas such as transport planning. He made important contributions through the rigorous deployment of accounts' concepts in demography and economic modelling. In recent years he has been particularly concerned with applications of dynamical systems theory in relation to the task of modelling the evolution of urban structure — initially described in Catastrophe theory and bifurcation: applications to urban and regional systems. His current research, supported by ESRC and EPSRC grants of around ?3M, is on the evolution of cities and the dynamics of global trade and migration.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47989293646053,"sku":"NP9781118922286","price":111.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781118922286.jpg?v=1761783549","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/es\/products\/global-dynamics-isbn-9781118922286","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}