{"product_id":"decision-analysis-for-management-judgment-isbn-9781118740736","title":"Decision Analysis for Management Judgment","description":"\u003ci\u003eDecision Analysis for Management Judgment\u003c\/i\u003e is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. \u003cp\u003eThis latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForeword \u003ci\u003eLawrence D. Phillips \u003c\/i\u003evii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface ix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 1 Introduction 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART 65\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 5 Introduction to probability 95\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems 187\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information 221\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment 245\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management 297\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals 309\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems 337\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia 361\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty 387\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis 423\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 18 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions 437\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuggested answers to selected questions 469\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 475\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePaul Goodwin\u003c\/b\u003e is Professor of Management Science at the School of Management, University of Bath. He is Editor of the \u003ci\u003eInternational Journal of Forecasting \u003c\/i\u003eand a member of the editorial board of \u003ci\u003ethe Journal of Behavioral Decision Making\u003c\/i\u003e.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eGeorge Wrigh\u003c\/b\u003et is a Professor at Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde. He is the Editor of the \u003ci\u003eJournal of Behavioral Decision Making \u003c\/i\u003eand anAssociate Editor of both\u003ci\u003e Decision Support Systems \u003c\/i\u003eand the \u003ci\u003eInternational Journal of Forecasting.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003eIn an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision makers gain insight into the problems they face. \u003ci\u003eDecision Analysis for Management Judgment\u003c\/i\u003e is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It considers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. The text is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe fifth edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments and research in the field.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eIncludes a new chapter (Chapter 17) on combining scenario planning with decision analysis.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eDiscusses the distinction between good and bad decisions and good and bad outcomes.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eExtends the discussion of second-order stochastic dominance by introducing a new, simple procedure to help decision makers determine whether stochastic dominance is present.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eCoverage of the Delphi method in Chapter 13 has been significantly extended and now includes research-based, step-by-step guides on how to apply the method for maximum effectiveness.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eDiscussion on decision framing in Chapter 15 now includes an introduction to prospect theory, which is probably the most well-known theory of how people make decisions when they face risks.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eScenario planning has been extended to include a case study detailing how the method was applied in the English National Health Service. The authors also contrast scenario planning with Nassim Taleb’s recently published ideas about ‘antifragility’ in decision making.\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003c\/b\u003eThe book is intended for MBA students and business and management undergraduates who are not specialist mathematicians but it will also appeal to practising managers. The companion website can be found at: \u003ca href=\"http:\/\/www.wileyeurope\/college\/goodwin\"\u003ewww.wileyeurope\/college\/goodwin\u003c\/a\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47989030322405,"sku":"NP9781118740736","price":63.5,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781118740736.jpg?v=1761782508","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/es\/products\/decision-analysis-for-management-judgment-isbn-9781118740736","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}