Cultures of Prediction

A probing examination of the dynamic history of predictive methods and values in science and engineering that helps us better understand today’s cultures of prediction.

The ability to make reliable predictions based on robust and replicable methods is a defining feature of the scientific endeavor, allowing engineers to determine whether a building will stand up or where a cannonball will strike. Cultures of Prediction, which bridges history and philosophy, uncovers the dynamic history of prediction in science and engineering over four centuries. Ann Johnson and Johannes Lenhard identify four different cultures, or modes, of prediction in the history of science and engineering: rational, empirical, iterative-numerical, and exploratory-iterative. They show how all four develop together and interact with one another while emphasizing that mathematization is not a single unitary process but one that has taken many forms.

The story is not one of the triumph of abstract mathematics or technology but of how different modes of prediction, complementary concepts of mathematization, and technology coevolved, building what the authors call “cultures of prediction.” The first part of the book examines prediction from early modernity up to the computer age. The second part probes computer-related cultures of prediction, which focus on making things and testing their performance, often in computer simulations. This new orientation challenges basic tenets of the philosophy of science, in which scientific theories and models are predominantly seen as explanatory rather than predictive. It also influences the types of research projects that scientists and engineers undertake, as well as which ones receive support from funding agencies.Preface
1 Introduction
2 Hitting the Target With Mathematics: Ballistics and 
the Entangled History of Rational and Empirical Modes of Prediction
3 Engineering Knowledge, Autonomy, and Mathematics
4 Epistemology of Iteration: Predicting the Behavior of Molecules 
from 1927 to 2000
5 Systems Thinking and the Mainframe Culture of Prediction
6 Code is Fluid: How computational models move and 
adapt to new settings and applications
7 A Transformation of Bayesian Statistics: Computation, 
Prediction, and Rationality
8 Engineering Thermodynamics: Prediction and a Merger of Cultures
9 Looking Back and Looking Ahead: Prediction—Both Hybrid and Pure
Notes
References
Index“This book provides a historical and philosophical analysis of four modes (or cultures) of prediction present in science and engineering since the 17th century, which have relied on mathematical tools: rational, empirical, iterative-numerical, and exploratory-iterative.... They encourage scholars to pay attention to all four modes and to be mindful of the complexity of predictive practices.”
—Choice

“Cultures of Prediction offers a history of predictive practices across several centuries of science and engineering, arguing that mathematical prediction is more varied than historians and philosophers have appreciated and that this variety clusters around several distinct cultures. Johnson and Lenhard show persuasively that these differences really are cultural rather than drily technical; they come down to values.”
—Technology and Culture“This pioneering and broad-ranging analysis of the real practices of prediction in modern science and engineering goes far beyond philosophers’ usual notion of simple logical deduction from theories. Johannes Lenhard has wonderfully completed his collaboration with the late Ann Johnson.”
—Hasok Chang, Hans Rausing Professor at the Department of History and Philosophy of Science, University of Cambridge
 
“This comprehensive and important study presents much-needed and original work in engineering studies and provides a longue durée perspective.”
—Adelheid Voskuhl, Associate Professor, University of Pennsylvania
 
“Cultures of Prediction is a thorough, wide-ranging, and insightful book. It goes a long way toward redressing the neglect of prediction practices by historians and philosophers of science and technology.”
—Theodore Arabatzis, Professor of History and Philosophy of Science, National and Kapodistrian University of AthensAnn Johnson (1965−2016) was Associate Professor of Science and Technology Studies at Cornell University.

Johannes Lenhard holds the Heisenberg Professorship in Philosophy in Science and Engineering at Rhineland-Palatinate Technical University Kaiserslautern-Landau.