{"product_id":"country-risk-assessment-isbn-9780470845004","title":"Country Risk Assessment","description":"One of the few books on the subject, Country Risk Assessment combines the theoretical and practical tools for managing international country risk exposure.  \u003cp\u003e- Offers a comprehensive discussion of the specific mechanisms that apply to country risk assessment.\u003cbr\u003e - Discusses various techniques associated with global investment strategy.\u003cbr\u003e - Presents and analyses the various sources of country risk.\u003cbr\u003e - Provides an in depth coverage of information sources and country risk service providers.\u003cbr\u003e - Gives techniques for forecasting country financial crises.\u003cbr\u003e - Includes practical examples and case studies.\u003cbr\u003e - Provides a comprehensive review of all existing methods including the techniques on the cutting-edge Market Based Approaches such as KMV, CreditMetrics, CountryMetrics and CreditRisk+.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface ix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments xi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForeword by \u003ci\u003eCampbell R. Harvey \u003c\/i\u003exiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 Introduction 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1 An historical perspective 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2 Outline of the book 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 An Overview of Country Risk 9\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1 A Review of the literature 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1.1 The terminologies 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1.2 Definitions of country risk 10\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1.3 Sources of risk 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1.4 Types of investment 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1.5 The historical context 14\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1.6 Different methodologies 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2 Classification and examples of country risk 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.1 Natural disasters 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.2 Socio-political risk 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.3 Country-specific economic risk 22\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 25\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 The Economic and Financial Foundations of Country Risk Assessment 31\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1 Devaluation 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1.1 Relative price effects: The elasticities approach 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1.2 Income effects: The absorption approach 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1.3 Stock adjustments: The monetary approach 38\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1.4 Stock adjustments: The portfolio balance approach 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1.5 Country risk: Ratio analysis 42\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 47\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Country Risk Assessment Methodologies: The Qualitative, Structural Approach to Country Risk 49\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.1 Introduction 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2 Analysis of welfare and social indicators of the development process 51\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3 Analysis of the macroeconomic structures of growth 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4 External indebtedness, liquidity and solvency analysis 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.5 The savings–investment gap and domestic financial intermediation 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.6 Growth, crisis and governance 63\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.7 The “qualitative” aggregate approach to political risk 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.8 Conclusion 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Assessment Methodologies: Ratings 79\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1 Global country risk ratings 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1.1 Specialized ranking firms 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1.2 Export credit agencies 88\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1.3 Summary of global country risk ranking methods 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2 Country credit ratings 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.1 Credit rating agencies 94\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.2 Fitch 94\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.3 Moody’s 98\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.4 Standard \u0026amp; Poor’s 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.5 Country rankings published in magazines 102\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.6 Summary of country credit rating methods 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3 Conclusion 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 Econometric and Mathematical Methods 115\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1 Discriminant analysis 115\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2 Logit and probit models 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3 Regression analysis and model building 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4 Monte Carlo simulations 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5 Value at risk (VaR) 122\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.1 VaR for a single-asset portfolio 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.2 VaR for a two-asset portfolio 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.3 Other methods for Estimating VaR 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.6 Principal components analysis 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.7 Non-linearities and non-parametric estimation 125\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.8 Artificial neural networks 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.9 Multicriteria 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7 Risk Models 133\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1 Credit risk 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1.1 Probabilities of default using historical data 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1.2 Probabilities of default using interest rate spreads 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1.3 Probabilities of default using firm value 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1.4 Countrymetrics 137\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1.5 Loss given default 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1.6 Credit value at risk 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1.7 Credit VaR, default correlation and contagion 141\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2 Investment risk 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2.1 Adjusting the expected cash flows 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2.2 Adjusting the discount rate 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2.3 The Macro CAPM 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2.4 Measuring political risk as an insurance premium 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8 International Portfolio Investment Analysis 149\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.1 Modern financial theory 149\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2 International portfolio investment and country risk management 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2.1 The international portfolio investment panorama 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2.2 Impact of country risk on international portfolio investment 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2.3 International diversification 156\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2.4 International Capital Asset Pricing Model 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3 The Limits of the ICAPM 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.1 The normal distribution 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.2 Portfolio diversification 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.3 The CAPM 163\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.4 The Bank of America approach 163\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.5 The Goldman Sachs approach 164\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.6 The JP Morgan approach 165\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4 Conclusion 165\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9 Financial Crises in Emerging Market Countries: An Historical Perspective 171\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.1 Introduction 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2 Historical perspective 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.1 Economic growth-cum-debt process 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.2 Bonds versus loans 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.3 The rising importance of commercial bank lending in the post-WWII era 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.4 The debt crisis and the market-driven menu approach 176\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3 Solving the debt crisis 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3.1 Phase I – Buying time with rescheduling 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3.2 Phase II – The new money approach 178\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3.3 Phase III – The official concerted approach to debt restructuring 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4 Debt reduction instruments 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5 The way forward in the early 2000s: Back to the 1890s? 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.1 The return of private capital flows 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.2 The return of bondholders 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.3 The rise in non-debt-creating flows 190\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.4 The emergence of structured financing 190\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6 Conclusion 191\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix: The Brady Plan at work in EMCs 192\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 195\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e10 Country Risk and Risk Mitigation Instruments 197\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.1 Introduction 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2 The role of national export credit agencies 198\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3 The role of official multilateral risk guarantee institutions 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.1 The World Bank’s co-financing program 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.2 The role of the International Finance Corporation 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.3 The role of MIGA (Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency) 204\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4 The risk mitigation role of public and private risk guarantee institutions 204\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.5 The role of private providers of specialist insurance for country risk 205\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6 The market-based “menu” approach 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.1 The rise of the London Club debt secondary market of emerging market loans 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.2 Price developments 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.3 Technical supply and demand factors affecting debt prices 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.4 Debt conversion transactions 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.5 Mechanics of debt conversion 213\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.6 Range of debt conversion transactions 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.7 Official bilateral debt conversion 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6.8 Debt conversion: A positive sum game? 218\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e11 Country Risk Assessment: A Matter of Information and Intelligence Gathering 221\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.1 Introduction 221\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2 Solvency and liquidity risk: The supply of debt-related information 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.1 Official sources of country risk data and information 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.2 Private sources of country risk data and information 234\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3 FDI-related country risk assessment 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.1 The role of specialized country risk assessment companies 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.2 National public and private information sources 240\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.3 Think-tanks and risk analysis companies 241\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.4 Conclusion 243\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix: External debt, official information sources 244\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 245\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlossary 247\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 265\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cb\u003eMICHEL HENRY BOUCHET\u003c\/b\u003e is Professor of Finance at CERAM-Sophia Antipolis (France), Scientific Director of the MSc in International Finance, and Head of the Chair 'Global Finance'. He is also Managing Director of DEFI\/Developing Finance, Paris. After an international banking career at BNP, the World Bank and the Washington-based Institute of International Finance, Dr. Bouchet was founder and CEO of Owen Stanley Financial, a specialized advisory firm dealing with debt restructuring strategy for country governments. Dr. Bouchet graduated in Economics from the University of Paris and IEP-Paris. He also holds an M.A. and a Ph.D from USC (Columbia-USA).  \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eEPHRAÏM CLARK\u003c\/b\u003e is Professor of Finance at Middlesex University, London, and Visiting Professor at ESC Lille, France, with extensive teaching experience in Europe and the USA. He is Founding Editor of the European Journal of Finance, Co-editor of Treasury Affairs, and Associate Editor of the International Journal of Finance. Professor Clark is the author of eight books and over 50 articles in academic and professional journals in the field of international risk management, and he also has extensive experience in private business and as a consultant.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eBERTRAND GROSLAMBERT\u003c\/b\u003e after working in Africa as Financial Controller with the French oil group, Total, Dr. Groslambert joined Paris-based FP Consult (now part of Fortis Group), an emerging market investment management company with a US$250 million portfolio. He was equity fund manager specializing in Latin American stock markets. Dr. Groslambert teaches International Finance Strategy and International Risk Management at CERAM. A graduate himself from CERAM, he holds a Doctorate in Economics from Aix-Marseille University, and his areas of expertise include emerging markets and international economics.\u003cbr\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\"In this day and age where Global Risk Management is all the rage, Bouchet, Clark and Groslambert's \u003ci\u003eCOUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT\u003c\/i\u003e is a 'must-read' for Chief Executives and Senior Risk Managers. It successfully blends an academic and critical review of the existing body of work in the field with a fresh and genuinely creative approach to the subject: Chapter 11, which draws analogies between quantum mechanics, country risk and information dynamics peculiar to our century, is a real gem...\"\u003cbr\u003e—\u003cb\u003eXavier R. Rolet\u003c\/b\u003e, Managing Director and Co-Head of Global Equity Trading, Lehman Brothers, Inc.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCountry risk is a broad concept which brings together the varied disciplines of economics, finance, geopolitics, sociology and history. Based on a collective 50 years of experience as scholars, managers and advisors in the field of country risk, the authors set out to provide a solid understanding of the concepts and methodologies involved in formulating successful strategies for international risk assessment and management. With a balance between theory and practice, the book assesses the opportunities arising from the growing integration of international finance markets and presents and analyses the various sources of country risk.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt provides an in-depth coverage of information sources and country risk service providers, and explains techniques for assessing and forecasting country financial crises. It includes a comprehensive review of all existing methods including the techniques of the cutting-edge market-based approaches such as:\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eKMv\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eCredit Metrics\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eCountry Metrics\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eCredit Risk\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe book concludes with a management tool kit based on practical examples, all of which will be of interest to managers and analysts in investment banks and in corporate institutions involved in international investment, as well as to students of international finance and business.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47988998963429,"sku":"NP9780470845004","price":173.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9780470845004.jpg?v=1761782372","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/es\/products\/country-risk-assessment-isbn-9780470845004","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}