{"product_id":"analytics-stories-isbn-9781119646037","title":"Analytics Stories","description":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eInform your own analyses by seeing how one of the best data analysts in the world approaches analytics problems\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eAnalytics Stories: How to Make Good Things Happen\u003c\/i\u003e is a thoughtful, incisive, and entertaining exploration of the application of analytics to real-world problems and situations. Covering fields as diverse as sports, finance, politics, healthcare, and business, \u003ci\u003eAnalytics Stories\u003c\/i\u003e bridges the gap between the oft inscrutable world of data analytics and the concrete problems it solves. \u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDistinguished professor and author Wayne L. Winston answers questions like: \u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eWas Liverpool over Barcelona the greatest upset in sports history? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eWas Derek Jeter a great infielder \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eWhat's wrong with the NFL QB rating? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow did Madoff keep his fund going? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eDoes a mutual fund’s past performance predict future performance? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eWhat caused the Crash of 2008? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eCan we predict where crimes are likely to occur? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIs the lot of the American worker improving? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow can analytics save the US Republic? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eThe birth of evidence-based medicine: How did James Lind know citrus fruits cured scurvy? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow can I objectively compare hospitals? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow can we predict heart attacks in real time? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow does a retail store know if you're pregnant? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow can I use A\/B testing to improve sales from my website? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow can analytics help me write a hit song? \u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003ePerfect for anyone with the word “analyst” in their job title, \u003ci\u003eAnalytics Stories\u003c\/i\u003e illuminates the process of applying analytic principles to practical problems and highlights the potential pitfalls that await careless analysts.  \u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction xxvii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart I What Happened? 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1 Preliminaries 3\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBasic Concepts in Data Analysis 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Is a Random Variable? 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2 Was the 1969 Draft Lottery Fair? 17\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Data 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Analysis 18\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 20\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3 Who Won the 2000 Election: Bush or Gore? 23\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProjecting the Undervotes 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Happened with the Overvotes? 25\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Butterfl y Did It! 25\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 28\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4 Was Liverpool Over Barcelona the Greatest Upset in Sports History? 31\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Should We Rank Upsets? 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLeicester Wins the 2015–2016 Premier League 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e#16 Seed UMBC Beats #1 Seed Virginia 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Jets Win Super Bowl III 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOther Big Upsets 34\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5 How Did Bernie Madoff Keep His Fund Going? 35\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Mathematics of Ponzi Schemes 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMadoff’s Purported Strategy 37\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Sharpe Ratio Proves Madoff Was a Fraud 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBenford’s Law and Madoff’s Fraud 40\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6 Is the Lot of the American Worker Improving? 45\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIs U.S. Family Income Skewed? 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMedian Income and Politics 46\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCauses of Increasing U.S. Income Inequality 48\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMoney Isn’t Everything: The Human\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDevelopment Index 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCreate Your Own Ranking of Well-Being 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAre Other Countries Catching Up to the U.S.? 51\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7 Measuring Income Inequality with the Gini, Palm, and Atkinson Indices 53\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Gini Index 53\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Palma Index 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Atkinson Index 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 59\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8 Modeling Relationships Between Two Variables 61\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExamples of Relationships Between Two Variables 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFinding the Best-Fitting (Least Squares) Line 62\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eComputing the Beta of a Stock 63\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Is a Good R2? 64\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCorrelation and R2 65\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe are Not Living in a Linear World 67\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9 Intergenerational Mobility 73\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbsolute Intergenerational Mobility 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntergenerational Elasticity 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRank-Rank Mobility 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eComparing IGE and Rank-Rank Mobility 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMeasuring Mobility with Quintiles 78\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Great Gatsby Curve 80\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 82\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10 Is Anderson Elementary School a Bad School? 85\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Can We Adjust for Family Income? 86\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimating the Least Squares Line 86\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCan We Compare Standardized Test Performance for Students in Different States? 86\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 11 Value-Added Assessments of Teacher Effectiveness 89\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimple Gain Score Assessment 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCovariate Adjustment Assessment 91\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLayered Assessment Model 91\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCross-Classified Constant Growth Assessment 91\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems with VAA 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Much Is a Good Teacher Worth? 94\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 95\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 12 Berkeley, Buses, Cars, and Planes 97\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimpson’s Paradox and College Admissions 98\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Waiting Time Paradox 100\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhen Is the Average of 40 and 80 Not 60? 100\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Pre COVID Were There Never Empty\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSeats on My Flight? 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 13 Is Carmelo Anthony a Hall of Famer? 103\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Metric Defines Basketball Ability? 104\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWins Above Replacement Player (WARP) 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eManu, Melo, Dirk, and Dwayne 106\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Do 25,000 Points Lead to So Few Wins? 106\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 14 Was Derek Jeter a Great Fielder? 109\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFielding Statistics: The First Hundred Years 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRange Factor 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eThe Fielding Bible\u003c\/i\u003e: A Great Leap Forward 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Next Frontier 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 15 “Drive for Show and Putt for Dough?” 115\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStrokes Gained 115\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Myth Exposed 116\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 16 What’s Wrong with the NFL QB Rating? 117\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNFL Quarterback Rating 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 125\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 17 Some Sports Have All the Luck 127\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSkill vs. Luck: The Key Idea 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Results 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 18 Gerrymandering 131\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Stylized Example 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Mathematics of Gerrymandering 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 19 Evidence-Based Medicine 143\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eJames Lind and Scurvy: The Birth of Evidence-Based Medicine 143\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Randomized Streptomycin Tuberculosis Trial 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHormone Replacement: Good or Bad? 148\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 20 How Do We Compare Hospitals? 151\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRatings Criteria 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 156\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 21 What Is the Worst Health Care Problem in My Country? 159\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDisability-Adjusted Life Years 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDetermination of Disability Weights 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo Age Weight or Discount, That Is the Question 162\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eKey Facts About World Health 163\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart II What Will Happen? 167\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 22 Does a Mutual Fund’s Past Performance Predict Future Performance? 169\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMutual Fund Basics 170\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMorningstar Ratings 170\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk-Adjusting Fund Returns 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Well Do Morningstar Star Ratings\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePredict a Fund’s Future Performance? 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Effect of Expense Ratio on Long-Term Performance 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 178\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 23 Is Vegas Good at Picking NFL Games? 181\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow NFL Betting Works 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBias and Accuracy 184\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVegas Forecasts are Unbiased 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTotals Predictions and Money Line Predictions are Unbiased 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNFL Accuracy: The Line vs. the Computers 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA System Works Until It Doesn’t 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 24 Will My New Hires Be Good Employees? 191\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Data Do We Need to Determine Attributes That Best Predict Employee Performance? 192\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBesides GMA, Not Much Affects Job Performance 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 25 Should I Go to State U or Princeton? 199\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnalyzing Princeton vs. Penn State 200\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 26 Will My Favorite Sports Team Be Great Next Year? 203\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrancis Galton and Regression to the Mean 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRegression to the Mean in the NFL and the NBA 204\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 207\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 27 How Did Central Bankers Fail to Predict the 2008 Recession? 209\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Inverted Yield Curve 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Sahm Rule: Early Warning Signal for Recession 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eControl Charts and the Housing Price\/Rent Ratio 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 28 How Does Target Know If You’re Pregnant? 219\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Available Data Can Be Used\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eto Identify Pregnant Women? 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems Arise 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn Example of a Pregnancy Prediction Score 221\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 29 How Does Netflix Recommend Movies and TV Shows? 225\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUser-Based Collaborative Filtering 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eItem-Based Filtering 229\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 30 Can We Predict Heart Attacks in Real Time? 233\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePosterior Probability 234\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSensitivity and Specifi city 235\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eROC Curve 235\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBack to the Apple Heart Study 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAliveCor \u003cb\u003eand \u003c\/b\u003eKardiaBand 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 31 Is Proactive Policing Effective? 241\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHot Spots Policing 242\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePredictive Policing 243\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCCTV 244\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStop and Frisk 244\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBroken Windows 246\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 247\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 32 Guess How Many are Coming to Dinner? 249\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhich Parameters Must Be Estimated? 250\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Data 252\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Results 253\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhich Factor Really Matters? 254\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 254\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 33 Can Prediction Markets Predict the Future? 259\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExamples of Trade Contracts 260\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrediction Market Trading Mechanisms 261\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccuracy of Prediction Markets and Wisdom of Crowds 262\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 34 The ABCs of Polling 265\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy are 1,112 People Enough to Represent U.S. Voters? 265\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Doesn’t a Larger Population Require a Larger Sample Size? 267\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSo, What Can Go Wrong? 268\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRating Polls 271\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 35 How Did Buzzfeed Make the Dress Go Viral? 273\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMeasuring Instagram Engagement 274\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTweets Do Not Always Go Viral Immediately 274\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDo the First Few Days Predict the Future of a Meme? 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 36 Predicting \u003ci\u003eGame of Thrones \u003c\/i\u003eTV Ratings 277\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Does Google Trends Tell Us? 277\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePredicting the Present with Google Trends 278\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsing Google Trends to Forecast \u003ci\u003eGOT \u003c\/i\u003eRatings 279\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 281\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart III Why Did It Happened? 283\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 37 Does Smoking Cause Lung Cancer? 285\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCorrelation and Causation Redux 285\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Key Evidence 286\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCould Air Pollution Have Caused Lung Cancer? 287\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Cigarette Companies Hit Back 287\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 288\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 38 Why are the Houston Rockets a Good Basketball Team? 291\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNBA Shooting Math 101 292\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZach LaVine Battles the Bulls’ Analytics Department 295\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 296\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 296\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 39 Why Have Sacrifice Bunts and Intentional Walks Nearly Disappeared? 297\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Case Against Bunting 298\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBunting Against the Shift 299\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy are Intentional Walks on the Decline? 300\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 40 Do NFL Teams Pass Too Much and Go for It Often Enough on Fourth Down? 301\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Ascent of Passing 301\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFourth Down Strategy 303\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNew Data Partially Vindicates the Coaches 304\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTeams Should Go for Two More Often 306\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 41 What Caused the 1854 London Cholera Outbreak? 307\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCholera 307\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSnow and the Broad Street Pump 308\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSnow’s Randomized Controlled Trial 310\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 311\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 312\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 42 What Affects the Sales of a Retail Product? 313\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePainter’s Tape 313\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimating the Model Parameters 315\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 316\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 43 Why Does the Pareto Principle Explain So Many Things? 319\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePower Laws 320\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Do Incomes Follow the Pareto Principle? 322\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Do a Few Websites Get Most of the Hits? 323\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 324\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 44 Does Where You Grow Up Matter? 327\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuasi-Experimental Design vs. Randomized Controlled Trials 328\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Drives Neighborhood Differences in Upward Mobility? 329\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Can We Make Things Better? 330\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 45 The Waiting is the Hardest Part 333\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhich Factors Influence the Performance of a Queueing System? 334\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOperating Characteristics of a Queueing System 334\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Does Variability Degrade the Performance of a Queueing System? 335\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCalculating the Operating Characteristics of a Queueing System 336\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 338\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 46 are Roundabouts a Good Idea? 339\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Is a Roundabout? 340\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHistory of Roundabouts 340\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBenefi ts of Roundabouts 341\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDisadvantages of Roundabouts 343\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRoundabout Capacity 344\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRoundabouts and Revolutions 345\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 47 Red Light, Green Light, or No Light? 347\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Causes Traffic Jams? 347\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Should We Set the Lights? 348\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRamp Meters and Equity 349\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMeasuring the Impact of Ramp Meters 350\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Twin Cities Metering Holiday 350\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart IV How Do I Make Good Things Happen? 351\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 48 How Can We Improve K–12 Education? 353\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTennessee’s STAR Study on K–2 Class Size 355\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCost–Benefi t Analysis 356\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCan Predictive Analytics Increase Enrollment and Performance in Eighth-Grade Algebra I? 360\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 360\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 49 Can A\/B Testing Improve My Website’s Performance? 363\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImproving Obama’s Fundraising in 2008 364\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Mechanics of Resampling 365\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 366\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 50 How Should I Allocate My Retirement Portfolio? 369\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Basic Portfolio Optimization Model 369\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Effi cient Frontier 372\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDiffi culties in Implementing the Markowitz Model 374\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 374\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 51 How Do Hedge Funds Work? 377\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGrowth in Hedge Funds and Hedge Fund Fee Structure 378\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eShorting a Stock 378\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLong\/Short and Market-Neutral Strategies 378\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConvertible Arbitrage 380\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMerger Arbitrage 382\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlobal Macro Strategy 383\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHedge Fund Performance 384\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe George Costanza Portfolio 384\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 385\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 52 How Much Should We Order and When Should We Order? 389\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Economic Order Quantity Model 389\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReorder Points, Service Levels, and Safety Stock 392\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 393\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 53 How Does the UPS Driver Know the Order to Deliver Packages? 397\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Is the Traveling Salesperson Problem So Hard? 398\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSolving the Traveling Salesperson Problem 399\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Traveling Salesperson Problem in the Real World 400\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 401\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 54 Can Data Win a Presidential Election? 405\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDemocratic Presidential Analytics 405\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe GOP Strikes Back 409\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election 411\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 412\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 55 Can Analytics Save Our Republic? 415\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eArrow’s Impossibility Theorem 416\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt’s Not Easy to Pick a Winner! 417\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRanked-Choice Voting 419\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eApproval Voting 420\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuadratic Voting 420\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 421\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 56 Why Do I Pay Too Much on eBay? 423\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Many Pennies in the Jar? 423\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Importance of Asymmetric Information 424\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Winner’s Curse and Offshore Oil Leases 424\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSports Free Agents and the Winner’s Curse 425\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCan You Avoid the Winner’s Curse? 425\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 427\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 57 Can Analytics Recognize, Predict, or Write a Hit Song? 429\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Does Shazam Know What Song You are Listening To? 430\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Did Hit Song Science Know Norah Jones’s Album Would Be a Smash? 431\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCan Artifi cial Intelligence Write a Good Song? 433\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 58 Can an Algorithm Improve Parole Decisions? 437\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn Example of Risk Scores 438\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProPublica Criticizes Risk Scores 441\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSkeem and Lowenkamp and PCRA 443\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMachine Learning and Parole Decisions 444\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 59 How Do Baseball Teams Decide Where to Shift Fielders? 449\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Debut of the Shift 449\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Return of the Shift 450\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEmpirical Evidence on the Shift 452\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Not Just Beat the Shift? 452\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 453\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 60 Did Analytics Help the Mavericks Win the 2011 NBA Title? 457\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Can You Evaluate a Basketball Player? 457\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom Player Ratings to Lineup Ratings 459\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 61 Who Gets the House in the Hamptons? 463\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Basic Idea 464\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Asset Division Is Best? 465\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExcel Calculations 466\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 469\u003c\/p\u003e  \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eWayne L. Winston\u003c\/b\u003e is Professor Emeritus of Decision Sciences at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. He currently teaches Sports Analytics at IU, and has taught analytics to organizations including Microsoft, eBay, Cisco, Deloitte, the U.S. military, Eli Lilly, JP Morgan, and more. A two-time \u003ci\u003eJeopardy!\u003c\/i\u003e Champion, he has consulted on analytics for two top NBA teams.   \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eFIND THE ANSWERS WITH ANALYTICS\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eEver wonder how Madoff kept his felonious fund going? Or what caused the Crash of 2008? Are you curious about whether we can effectively predict where crimes are likely to occur? Want to know how to objectively compare hospitals? How about whether your favorite player has a shot at the Hall of Fame? \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eUsing analytics, you can find out all that and so much more.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eYes, this book is about analytics. But it's not about tedious definitions or detailed mathematical functions. It's full of stories showing how analytics is applied to everyday situations. Whether \"analyst\" is in your job title or you just have an interest (professional or otherwise) in sports, politics, health care, business, marketing, finance, or practically any field, discover how analytics is used to determine what happened, what will happen, why it happened, and how to make good things happen. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eLearn the answers to:\u003c\/b\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eWho REALLY won the 2000 U.S. presidential election?\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIs Carmelo Anthony a Hall of Famer?\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow does evidence-based medicine work?\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow does Target know you're pregnant?\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eWhy do political polls sometimes give bad forecasts?\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow should I allocate my retirement portfolio?\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eWhy do roundabouts work?\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eCan analytics help me write a hit song?\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eWhy do I always bid too much on eBay?\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e…and more than 50 other burning questions!\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":47988736360677,"sku":"NP9781119646037","price":37.0,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/1842\/7735\/files\/9781119646037.jpg?v=1761781388","url":"https:\/\/k12savings.com\/es\/products\/analytics-stories-isbn-9781119646037","provider":"K12savings","version":"1.0","type":"link"}