20/20 Money

20/20 Money: See the Markets Clearly and Invest Better Than the Pros

To be a more successful investor, you need to see the investment landscape more clearly. 20/20 Money—from Fisher Investments Press—can help you achieve this goal.

Designed to help you think differently about your investing choices, this reliable resource addresses new ideas and challenges widely held conventions. With 20/20 Money as your guide, you'll quickly learn how gaining a firm understanding of various concepts—from stock market and systems theory to neuroscience and psychology—can help you begin making better investment decisions. Along the way, you'll also discover some of the most successful strategies for thinking and learning, and how they can be applied to your investing endeavors.

To become a better investor, you have to have the discipline to make tough choices—choices that may not always be in line with tradition or commonly accepted invested wisdom. But the approach outlined throughout these pages can help you gain the vision to begin making better-informed investment decisions.

Acknowledgments xi

Introduction xiii

Chapter 1 Investing Is a Science 1

Apollo’s Arrow Shot Crooked 2

Dionysus—More Than Just a Good Vintner 3

Use the Method, Not the Dogma 5

Careful with Categories 13

Could Math Be Wrong? 15

Reduction: Why You Can’t Quantify Everything 19

Chapter 2 Investing Is a Discipline 27

Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 29

Sagacity: Seeing Isn’t Believing 41

Understanding and Being Curious 48

Chapter 3 Human Behavior 51

Brain Basics 53

Brains on the Market 64

My, What a Terrible Memory You Have! 71

Bad Behavioral Finance 76

Behavioral Miscellany 79

Chapter 4 Sentiment and the Media 83

Sentiment Basics 85

News and the Media 90

What’s Their Motive? 98

Tips and Tricks to Navigate the Media 100

Metaphors We Invest by 106

Chapter 5 How Stock Markets Really Work 113

Capitalism by Any Other Name 114

It’s Complicated . . . A Crash Course in CEAS 118

The New Golden Rule 130

Oldest and Still the Best: Supply and Demand 139

Chapter 6 Forecasting, Part 1—The Principle of Probability 147

Forecasting Is Strange Alchemy 148

Types of Predictions 150

Probability Theory, or How Markets Are

Nothing Like Coin Tosses 154

The Biggest Problem of Them All 163

Investing Lessons from Probability 165

Looking Ahead . . . 170

Chapter 7 Forecasting, Part 2 —Recognizing Patterns 173

A Pattern by Any Other Name 174

Stock Market Patterns 175

Patterns Through the Noise 179

It’s a Game of Relative Expectations 181

Back to the Future: Using History to Find Patterns 187

Three Big Drivers 191

An Optimistic Note on Future Patterns 195

Chapter 8 Practical Portfolio Management 197

The Virtues of Heuristics 198

Goal Setting 199

Personal Goals 201

Portfolio Goals 205

The Top-Down Philosophy 210

Miscellaneous Heuristics 223

Chapter 9 The Nature of Risk and Navigating Markets in

Troubled Times 229

Risk and Uncertainty 231

Financial Risk, or What Happens When You Assume 233

In Troubled Times 239

Parting Thoughts 253

Notes 255

Selected Bibliography and Further Reading 259

About the Author 269

Index 271

Michael J. Hanson has been an investment banker as well as a stock analyst and is currently a senior editor and recurring columnist at Fisher Investments' MarketMinder.com. He has lectured on topics in money management at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and speaks regularly throughout the country on a variety of topics, including capital markets and behavioral finance.

A majority of investors—both experienced professionals and aspiring individuals—are blinded by conventional investing ideas that just don't work. The fact is that many of us end up making costly mistakes because we don't understand the basic ways markets work.

What you need to succeed is a new investing lens, one that allows you to see things in a different way than most—one that helps you think differently. That's why Michael Hanson, a senior editor and columnist for Fisher Investments' MarketMinder.com, has written 20/20 Money.

While understanding economic fundamentals and analyzing data are important aspects of investing, without a clear vision and well-developed philosophy to help drive decisions, you can fall short of achieving your investing goals.

Through an interdisciplinary discussion ranging from stock market theory, mathematics, and history to systems theory, psychology, and science, 20/20 Money—the latest title from Fisher Investments Press—ventures outside the narrow realm of investing to help you gain the focus needed to help you in your efforts to protect your portfolio and produce superior long-term returns in even the most difficult market conditions. Page by page, you'll discover how to:

• Use current research in neuroscience and behavioral psychology to understand how your perceptions and natural emotions are often contradictory to your best financial interests

• Apply the power of self-awareness and self-observation to build discipline and avoid common investing pitfalls

• Navigate the media and gauge investor sentiment—not only to get the information you need, but also to ignore distracting noise

• Analyze the stock market and economy as a complex, emergent, adaptive system (CEAS)

• Forecast stock markets in terms of probability and use pattern recognition

• Create a framework—or set of heuristics—for managing your own portfolio

• Recognize risk in its many forms and overcome obstacles during turbulent times

Along the way, you'll also discover some of the most successful strategies for thinking and learning, and how they can be applied to better investing.

If you intend on making money in the markets, having 20/20 investing vision can help. Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, 20/20 Money puts this discipline in perspective and shows you how making the right choices can make all the difference in today's dynamic market environment.

20/20 Money: See the Markets Clearly and Invest Better Than the Pros

To truly outperform today's markets, you need to see the investment landscape clearly. 20/20 Money—the latest title from Fisher Investments Press—can help you achieve this goal.

Designed to make you think differently about your investing choices, this reliable resource addresses new ideas and challenges widely held conventions. With 20/20 Money as your guide, you'll quickly learn how gaining a firm understanding of various concepts—from stock market and systems theory to neuroscience and psychology—can put you in a better position to excel in today's turbulent investment arena. Along the way, you'll also discover some of the most successful strategies for thinking and learning, and how they can improve your overall investment endeavors.

To better protect your portfolio and increase opportunities for superior long-term returns, you have to have the discipline to make tough choices—choices that may not always be in line with others. But with the approach outlined throughout these pages, you can gain the vision to make the most informed investment decisions possible and help improve your long-term results.

About Fisher Investments Press

Fisher Investments Press brings the research, analysis, and market intelligence of Fisher Investments' research team, headed by CEO and New York Times bestselling author Ken Fisher, to all investors. The Press covers a range of investing and market-related topics for a wide audience—from novices to enthusiasts to professionals.