Trend Trading Set-Ups

An expert reveals a step-by-step process for profiting from neoclassical qualified trend trading

Trend Trading Set-Ups extends the neoclassical concept of qualified trend first introduced by Little in Trend Qualification and Trading, providing traders and investors with a sound methodology for uncovering the very best trade set-ups and the ability to time trade entries like never before. In Trend Trading Set-Ups, Little reveals the data behind qualified trends and utilizes a novel concept involving time to calculate trend failure probability rates.

Little reduces the complex to its most simplistic form compressing all trades types into just two classes – retraces and breakouts. Once simplified, over a decade worth of qualified trend data is examined. The result is a comprehensive presentation of what makes some trades enormously better than others and how you can both find and exploit the most favorable trade set-ups.

Some trading books are an interesting read but soon forgotten. A few books you place on the reachable shelf and refer to often. In Trend Trading Set-Ups L.A. Little offers you an entirely new way of approaching an old subject and does so in a style that is both as riveting as it is valuable. As with Trend Qualification and Trading you will find this book an easy but comprehensive read and one that you will turn to again and again while pursuing your trading and investing endeavors.

Foreword ix

Acknowledgments xi

Introduction 1

PART I 7

CHAPTER 1 Identifying and Qualifying Trend Probabilities 9

Trend Determination 10

Qualified Trend Failure Probabilities 13

Qualified Trade Failure Probabilities 31

Summary 37

CHAPTER 2 Anchor Zones: The Key to Timing Trades 41

Anchor Bars and Zones 42

Reconsidering Trade Failures 46

Summary 54

CHAPTER 3 Broader Influences Affecting Stocks 55

Sector Congruence 59

Virtual Industry Groups—Future Direction 72

General Market Congruence 74

Summary 81

PART II 85

CHAPTER 4 Formulating a Workable Trading Plan 89

Trend Direction and Strength 90

Time Frames 94

Entry and Exit Timing 95

Trading Size, Scale Trading, Trade Success Probabilities, and Reward-to-Risk Ratio 100

Evaluating and Acting Upon the Plan 104

Summary 105

CHAPTER 5 The Data behind Trend Trade Set-Ups 107

The Only Two Types of Trade Set-Ups 108

Trading Breakouts and Retraces 111

Breakouts versus Retrace Trade Probabilities 113

Probabilities for Trade Set-Up Scenarios 122

Summary 133

CHAPTER 6 Sideways Range Trades 135

Trade Set-Up Conditions and Categorizations 136

Trading Sideways Trends 137

Summary 155

CHAPTER 7 Breakout and Retrace Trade Set-Ups 157

Retrace Trade Set-Ups 158

Breakout Trade Set-Ups 186

Considering Other Trade Set-Ups 199

Trade Set-Up Rationale and Thoughts 201

Summary 205

Conclusion: Unleashing Trade Potential 207

Appendix: Data Tables 209

About the Author 241

Index 243

L. A. LITTLE is what Jim Cramer called a "technician extraordinaire" on his Mad Money television show. Little is a professional trader, money manager, and writes frequently for online publications including Minyanville.com and MarketWatch.com while continuing to contribute articles to well-known print publications like Stocks & Commodities, Active Trader, and Traders World. Little has presented in numerous conferences both domestically and internationally, appeared on syndicated radio shows, and provides daily market analysis and the tools to implement the trading strategies covered in this book on his website TAToday.com. With a trading philosophy centered on capital protection first and the accumulation of consistent gains over time, Little espouses a simplistic technical approach to trading the markets that refocuses technical analysis away from patterns to supply and demand levels. He is the author of Trend Qualification and Trading, also from Wiley.

TREND TRADING SET-UPS

The market offers trading opportunities no matter what the general market trend may be. But in order to capture them, you need to have a firm understanding of trade set-ups that have the highest probability of success.

Professional trader and money manager L. A. Little is an expert in this area, and now, with Trend Trading Set-Ups: Entering and Exiting Trends for Maximum Profit, he shows you what it takes to make it using this proven approach.

Divided into two comprehensive parts, this reliable resource offers valuable insights on various issues surrounding trade set-ups—including when a particular set-up has the highest probability for potential greatness—and shows you how to recognize and pursue these opportunities with regularity. In all cases, the set-ups examined consider price, volume, and time across various time frames and for instruments that are related.

Along the way, it skillfully lays the groundwork needed for this endeavor and moves on to cover other essential topics such as developing a workable trading plan, becoming familiar with range trade set-ups as well as retrace and breakout trade set-ups, and learning how to successfully identify and trade them.

Engaging and informative, Trend Trading Set-Ups skillfully details a process for understanding how to enter and exit trends for the best possible trading results.