Modelling Complex Projects

It is widely acknowledged that traditional Project Management techniques are no longer sufficient, as projects become more complex and client's demand reduced timescales. Problems that arise include inadequate planning and risk analysis, ineffective project monitoring and control, and uninformed post-mortem analysis. Effective modelling techniques, which capture the complexities of such projects, are therefore necessary for adequate project management. This book looks at those issues, describes some modelling techniques, then discusses their merits and possible synthesis.

• This is the only project management book that deals with Project Modelling.
• Features case studies throughout.
• Places the various approaches to Project Modelling within a coherent framework, and gives an objective overview.

Es ist allgemein bekannt, dass die traditionellen Methoden des Projektmanagment für die Bewältigung der modernen Projektsituation nicht mehr ausreichen. Heute werden Projekte immer komplexer, und die Kunden geben einen immer enger gesteckten Zeitrahmen vor. Entsprechend gilt es, Probleme, wie z.B. unzureichende Planung und Risikoanalyse, unwirksame Projektüberwachung und -steuerung sowie wenig fundierte nachträgliche Analysen von vornherein zu vermeiden. Dieses Buch hilft Ihnen dabei! "Modelling Complex Projects" ist das erste Buch, das sich ausschließlich mit dem Thema Projektmodellierung beschäftigt. Es vermittelt wirkungsvolle Modellierungstechniken, die der besonderen Komplexität moderner Projekte gerecht werden. Diskutiert wird eine breite Palette neuer Techniken, wobei auch auf ihre jeweiligen Vorteile und Kombinationsmöglichkeiten eingegangen wird. Mit zahlreichen Fallstudien.

1 This Book 1

Introduction to the book and the author 1

Why is there a need for this book? 3

The structure of this book 7

What do I need to know before I read this book? 8

Conclusion 11

2 Projects 13

What is a project? 13

What are project objectives? 15

Basic project management techniques 18

Projects referred to in this book 23

Conclusion 29

3 Modelling 31

What is a model? 31

Why do we model? 35

Modelling in practice 40

Validation 44

Conclusion 47

4 What is a Complex Project? 49

Introduction 49

What is complexity? Structural complexity 50

What is complexity? Uncertainty 55

What is complexity? Summary 58

Increasing complexity 59

Tools and techniques—and the way ahead 62

5 Discrete Effects and Uncertainty 65

Introduction 65

Uncertainty and risk in projects 66

Cost risk: additive calculations 78

Time risk: effects in a network 89

Analysing time risk: simulation 96

Criticality and cruciality 104

The three criteria and beyond 115

Conclusion 118

6 Discrete Effects: Collecting Data 119

Introduction 119

Collecting subjective data: identification 121

Collecting subjective data: general principles of quantification 123

Collecting subjective data: simple activity-duration models 126

Effect of targets 131

Conclusion 136

7 The Soft Effects 137

Introduction 137

Some key project characteristics 139

Client behaviour and external effects on the project 140

Management decisions 146

Project staffing 149

Subjective effects within the project 151

Summary and looking forward 154

8 Systemic Effects 155

The effects 155

A brief introduction to cause mapping 157

Qualitative modelling: simple compounding 158

Qualitative modelling: loops 161

Quantitative modelling 163

9 System Dynamics Modelling 167

Introduction to system dynamics 167

Using system dynamics with mapping 171

Elements of models 175

Production elements 176

Other elements 188

Managerial actions 189

How effects compound 193

Validation 195

Conclusion 196

10 Hybrid Methods: The Way Forward? 199

Introduction 199

Adapting standard models using lessons learned from SD 200

Using conventional tools to generate SD models 205

Using SD and conventional models to inform each other 206

Extending SD: discrete events and stochastic SD 208

The need for intelligence 210

Conclusion 212

11 The Role of the Modeller 215

Introduction 215

Project management 215

What makes a good modeller? 217

Stages of project modelling 219

Chapter summary 230

12 Conclusion 233

Appendix: Extension of time claims 235

References 249

Index 265

“…provides a lot of useful information about model building in general.” (Project Net, April 2004)

"...an essential resource for those required to model how a project may behave under certain circumstances..." (Jnl of the Operation Research Society, Vol 54(12), 2004)

"...well conceived, well written, and well produced..." (Chemistry World, 1 Feb 2004)

TERRY WILLIAMS is Professor and Head of the Management Science Department at Strathclyde University. After studying at Oxford and Birmingham he lectured at Strathclyde University in Operational Research before joining Engineering Consultants YARD (now BAe) where he worked for 9 years developing Project Risk Management and as Risk Manager for major projects. He re-joined Strathclyde University in 1992 and continues research and consultancy modelling on major projects, particularly as one of a team supporting multi-million dollar post-project Delay and Disruption claims in Europe and North America.
Dr Williams is Editor of the Journal of the Operational Research Society. He is a frequent conference speaker, and has published widely in many academic and professional journals and books. He is MAPM, PhD and CMath. WRITTEN FROM the standpoint of a practitioner who is also an academic, all of the techniques in Modelling Complex Projects have been used in practice, and a set of examples of real life projects are used throughout the project cycle to illustrate the effects that are modelled.

Providing a broad toolkit, with an integrated development through all the tools, this book will show analysts and workers in project management how to:

• analyse the risk in a project
• quantify the effect of individual impacts upon a project (e.g. client changes)
• understand the progress of a project
• understand the behaviour of a project and the effect of management actions on the behaviour
• carry out a project post-mortem and prepare a post-project claim

IN RECENT YEARS, the need for help in understanding project behaviour has been exacerbated, as projects have become more complex while time-scales have tightened, adding to project complexity. Project teams however, rarely pay sufficient attention to modelling the behaviour of projects and this can lead to inadequate risk analysis, ineffective project control, and uninformed "lessons learned".

Because the behaviour of complex projects is often puzzling, or counter-intuitive, we need models. This book presents a structured toolkit of techniques, developed gradually from the simple to the more complex, and provides examples to show where, when and why the techniques should be used. It looks at what causes project complexity, describes various aspects of project behaviour and develops modelling tools.

Starting with more traditional techniques modelling individual effects on projects, giving a full treatment (including some novel network concepts) the book enables readers to build breakdown - and network - type models. It also considers some of the more difficult aspects of modelling by moving into the "softer", more subjective, effects and then looking at systemic models of the effects as they come together. Finally, it looks at various methods of developing hybrid tools, to utilise the benefits of combinations of techniques.

Based on a wealth of practical experience and bringing together a range of tried and tested techniques, this book explains where the use of modelling can help estimate, monitor, control and analyse projects and thus lead to successful implementation.