Wealth, War and Wisdom

An intriguing look at how past market wisdom can help you survive and thrive during uncertain times

In Wealth, War & Wisdom, legendary Wall Street investor Barton Biggs reveals how the turning points of World War II intersected with market performance, and shows how these lessons can help the twenty-first-century investor comprehend our own perilous times as well as choose the best strategies for the modern market economy.

Through these pages, Biggs skillfully discusses the performance of equities in both victorious and defeated countries, examines how individuals preserved their wealth despite the ongoing battles, and explores whether or not public equities were able to increase in value and serve as a wealth preserver. Biggs also looks at how other assets, including real estate and gold, fared during this dynamic and devastating period, and offers valuable insights on preserving one's wealth for future generations. With clear, concise prose, Biggs

• Reveals how the investment insights of truly trying times can be profitably applied to modern day investment endeavors
• Follows the performance of global markets against the backdrop of World War II
• Offers many relevant lessons-about life, politics, financial markets, wealth, and survival-that can help you thrive in the face of adversity

Wealth, War & Wisdom contains essential insights that will help you navigate modern financial markets during the uncertain times that will increasingly define this new century.

Der zweite Weltkrieg war verheerender Höhepunkt in der Geschichte, der aus Sicht des Autors fast die westliche Zivilisation gekostet hat. Biggs beschäftigt sich in seinem Buch daher mit der Frage, wie es Menschen in solchen Extremzeiten gelingen kann ihr Kapital zu sicher. Er analysiert dazu das Investitionsverhalten der Anleger von 1930-1945, und zwar sowohl auf Seiten der Sieger als auch auf Seiten der Besiegten. So stellt er beispielweise fest dass Grundeigentümer ihren Reichtum stärker schützten, als die Menschen die ihr Geld in Aktien angelegt hatten. Interessant ist vor allem, dass sich die Lehren aus dem Krieg direkt auf die heutigen turbulenten Märkte anwenden lässt.

Foreword v

Introduction 1

Chapter 1 Listen to the Market Crowd 7

Chapter 2 A World Darkened by Fear: An Overview of Soviet, German, and Japanese Aggression from 1929–1945 19

Chapter 3 Stock Markets Struggle: From the Great Depression to the Start of WWII 35

Chapter 4 “1940: The Most Splendid, Most Deadly Year”: The Time of England’s Greatest Peril 55

Chapter 5 Besieged and Alone: England in 1941 91

Chapter 6 Operation Barbarossa: Germany Attacks Russia 109

Chapter 7 Miracles at the Coral Sea and Midway: Japan and America 131

Chapter 8 Stock Markets Understood: Nobody Else Did 153

Chapter 9 The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse Ride Again 173

Chapter 10 France Declines Financially, Economically, and Socially 187

Chapter 11 Gone with the Wind: Preserving Wealth in Italy and Germany 203

Chapter 12 Stalingrad: The Battle of the Century 231

Chapter 13 Defeats and Then Victories in Asia and North Africa 251

Chapter 14 The Test in Korea: The Last Battle of WWII 275

Chapter 15 Preserving Wealth in a Time of Cholera 303

Chapter 16 Barbarians at the Gate 321

Notes 335

Bibliography 347

Index 353

BARTON BIGGS spent thirty years at Morgan Stanley. In that time, he formed the firm's number one–ranked research department, was chairman of the investment management firm, and then became the firm's leading global strategist. He was often ranked as the number-one U.S. investment strategist by the Institutional Investor magazine poll and then, from 1996 to 2003, as the top global strategist. In 2003, Biggs left Morgan Stanley and, with two other colleagues, formed Traxis Partners. Traxis now has well over a billion dollars under its management. Biggs's previous book, Hedgehogging, is an international success.

"Barton Biggs's Wealth, War & Wisdom entertains us with a creative juxtaposition of a war narrative and a security market history. As has been the case throughout his remarkable career, Biggs adds to our store of knowledge with his elegant, wonderfully crafted prose."
—From the Foreword by David F. Swensen, Chief Investment Officer, Yale University

"Barton Biggs has brought his love of history together with half a century of investment experience and written a remarkably readable book about the destruction of wealth and the wisdom of markets during World War II. It is both scholarly and impressionistic and will likely become a mainstay in the libraries of serious financial people for generations."
—Byron Wien, Chief Investment Strategist, Pequot Capital Management, Inc.

At least once in every century there has been an episode of massive wealth destruction. How do you preserve wealth amidst chaos, and are there messages from what has happened in the past? In Wealth, War & Wisdom, renowned Wall Street investor Barton Biggs studies World War II. He notes the surprising and previously unrecognized wisdom of stock markets in discerning the major tipping points. He then examines the performance of different asset classes, and what happened to wealth before and during the war. Filled with in-depth observations and practical advice, Wealth, War & Wisdom provides lessons to be learned as to what steps should be taken to preserve and enhance wealth in times of the most extreme adversity.