Thinking

The first international handbook to bring the areas of reasoning,judgment and decision making together, now in paperback format.

The book brings three of the important topics of thinkingtogether - reasoning, judgment and decision making â?? anddiscusses key issues in each area. The studies described range fromthose that are purely laboratory based to those that involveexperts making real world judgments, in areas such as medical andlegal decision making and political and economic forecasting.
* International collection of original chapters by leadingresearchers in the field
* Several chapters contain important new theoreticalperspectives
* Paperback version is more affordable for individualresearchers List of Contributors.

Introduction.

Part I: Reasoning.

Chapter 1: A Theory of Hypothetical Thinking (Jonathan St. B.T.Evans, David E. Over and Simon J. Handley).

Chapter 2: Individual Differences in the Development ofReasoning Strategies (Maxwell J. Roberts and Elizabeth J.Newton).

Chapter 3: Generalising Individual Differences and StrategiesAcross Different Deductive Reasoning Domains (Padraic Monaghan andKeith Stenning).

Chapter 4: Superordinate Principles, Conditions and Conditionals(Neil Fairley and Ken Manktelow).

Chapter 5: Premise Interpretation in Conditional Reasoning (GuyPolitzer).

Chapter 6: Probabilities and Pragmatics in ConditionalInference: Suppression and Order Effects (Mike Oaksford and NickChater).

Part II: Judgment.

Chapter 7: Verbal Expressions of Uncertainty and Probability(Karl Halvor Teigen and Wibecke Brun).

Chapter 8: Possibilities and Probabilities (Paolo Legrenzi,Vittorio Girotto, Maria Sonino Legrenzi and Philip N.Johnson-Laird).

Chapter 9: The Partitive Conditional Probability (LauraMacchi).

Chapter 10: Naive and yet Enlightened: From Natural Frequenciesto Fast and Frugal Decision Trees (Laura Martignon, Oliver Vitouch,Masanori Takezawa and Malcolm R. Forster).

Chapter 11: More is not Always Better: The Benefits of CognitiveLimits (Ralph Hertwig and Peter M. Todd).

Chapter 12: Correspondence and Coherence: Indicators of GoodJudgment in World Politics (Philip E. Tetlock).

Part III: Decision Making.

Chapter 13: Cognitive Mapping of Causal Reasoning in StrategicDecision Making (A. John Maule, Gerard P. Hodgkinson and Nicola J.Bown).

Chapter 14: Belief and Preference in Decision Under Uncertainty(Craig R. Fox and Kelly E. See).

Chapter 15: Medical Decision Scripts: Combining CognitiveScripts and Judgment Strategies to Account Fully for MedicalDecision Making (Robert M. Hamm).

Chapter 16: On the Assessment of Decision Quality:Considerations Regarding Utility, Conflict and Accountability(Gideon Keren and W¨andi Bruine de Bruin).

Author Index.

Subject Index. “…presents a variety of stimulating and informative chapters which are representative of topical issues and debates in the area...” (Applied Cognitive Psychology, No.18, 2004) Edited by Dr David Hardman, London Metropolitan University, UK and Professor Laura Macchi, University of Milan-Bicocca, Italy. Research into thinking has made considerable developments over the last two decades. This international and comprehensive handbook brings three of the important topics of thinking together—reasoning, judgment and decision making—and discusses key issues in each area.

The studies described range from those that are purely laboratory based to those that involve experts making real world judgments, in areas such as medical and legal decision making, and political and economic forecasting.

Topics include:

• the development of mental models theory and its application in new domains
• the application of "rational analysis" to reasoning and the rejection of logical codes
• the development of the frequentist perspective on probability
• the pragmatic approach to probabilistic reasoning
• the development of "fast-and-frugal" heuristics that outperform traditional methods for judgment and decision making
• an extended two-stage theory of decision making, incorporating prospect theory and support theory

This book will appeal to psychologists, behavioural decision theorists, management scientists, and anybody with an interest in how we think and how we might improve the quality of our thoughts.