The Climate Modelling Primer

As a consequence of recent increased awareness of the social and political dimensions of climate, many non-specialists discover a need for information about the variety of available climate models. A Climate Modelling Primer, Fourth Edition is designed to explain the basis and mechanisms of all types of current physically-based climate models.

A thoroughly revised and updated edition, this book will assist the reader in understanding the complexities and applicabilities of today’s wide range of climate models. Topics covered include the latest techniques for modelling the coupled biosphere-ocean-atmosphere system, information on current practical aspects of climate modelling and ways to evaluate and exploit the results, discussion of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), and interactive exercises based on Energy Balance Model (EBM) and the Daisyworld model. Source codes and results from a range of model types allows readers to make their own climate simulations and to view the results of the latest high resolution models. Now in full colour throughout and with the addition of cartoons to enhance student understanding the new edition of this successful textbook enables the student to tackle the difficult subject of climate modeling.

Preface vii

Acknowledgements xv

About the companion website xvi

Why Model Climate? 3

The Evolution of Climate Models 69

Energy Balance Models 139

Intermediate Complexity Models 199

Coupled Climate System Models 281

Through the Looking Glass 371

Collected Endnotes 393

Hints and Solutions 401

List of Abbreviations 402

List of Symbols 406

Bibliography 407

Index 431

"The Climate Modelling Primer is wide-ranging, not just in covering everything from simple radiation balance models to Global Circulation and Earth System Models, but in considering many different aspects of models and modelling.... It offers a wealth of resources for those learning how to do climate science as well as for those after a multi-faceted understanding of how it is done."
—Danny Yee's Book Reviews

Kendal McGuffie, University of Technology Sydney, Australia

Ann Henderson-Sellers, Macquarie University, Australia

FOURTH EDITION

The CLIMATE MODELLING PRIMER

Kendal McGuffie, University of Technology Sydney, Australia Ann Henderson-Sellers, Macquarie University, Australia

Climate modelling affects everyone, everywhere. Today, we all need to know whether and how climate models work; how they have evolved; and how well they are understood by those who build them, the funders who support them, the policy analysts who use them and the communicators who explain their outputs. The Climate Modelling Primer is a completely revised guide to the rules and riddles of climate modelling for those who need to know how modern models work and what they can deliver.

The Climate Modelling Primer, Fourth Edition engages readers in an interactive experience: making use of internet resources via QR codes that link to talks, simulations, results and assessments. Using these, readers can:

• 'Speed Date' real climate models
• Solve four CSI (climate simulation intrigues) mysteries in every chapter
• Meet fascinating climate modellers who have shaped this science
• Attempt to 'validate' many climate model simulations
• Probe significant aspects of important climate modelling papers
• Explore concepts with downloadable, easy-to-use climate models
• Communicate climate modelling ideas
• Draw and analyse feedbacks and 'wiring' diagrams.

This book encompasses the history of climate modelling and its future; how climate models are used in simulations of past, future and current climates at many scales; the wide range of communication forms employed to share results from climate model simulations with different audiences; the variety of confidence and uncertainty measures associated with climate model outputs and how to interpret them; and the ways in which results from climate models affect twenty-first century policy, laws, international trade and human development.

This book's audience includes all those who wish to understand twenty-first century climate modelling.