Systems Approach to Management of Disasters

The main goal of this text is to introduce the systems approach to disasters management community as an alternative approach that can provide support for interdisciplinary activities involved in the management of disasters. The systems approach draws on the fields of operations research and economics to create skills in solving complex management problems.

The text is organized into four parts. Part I provides an introductory discussion of disaster management including an overview of the main terms used. Part II is devoted to the introduction of systems theory, mathematical formalization and classification of methods. The material presented in this section should be of practical relevance during the process of selecting an appropriate tool for the solution of a problem. Part III is technical in nature, providing a simulation approach and a detailed description of system dynamics simulation. This section details two areas of application: flood evacuation simulation, and disaster risk assessment. Part IV ends with a chapter covering steps to improve disaster management. Finally parts of the book can be used as a tool for specialized short courses for practitioners. For example a course on 'System analysis for emergency management optimization' could be based on Chapters 3, 4 and parts of Chapter 6.

Included in the book is a CD with three computer programs Vensim PLE, LINPRO, and COMPRO. Vensim PLE (Personal Learning Edition) is state-of-the-art simulation software used for the implementation of system dynamics simulation. The other two programs are: LINPRO, a linear programming optimization tool; and COMPRO, for the implementation of the multi-objective analysis tool of compromise programming.

List of Figures and Tables xiii

About the Author xix

Foreword xxi

Preface xxv

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xxxiii

I Management of Disasters 1

1 Introduction 3

1.1 Issues in Management of Disasters—Personal Experience 6

1.1.1 Red River Flooding 6

1.1.2 “Red River Flood of the Century,” Manitoba, Canada 9

1.2 Tools for Management of Disasters—Two New Paradigms 19

1.2.1 The Complexity Paradigm 21

1.2.2 The Uncertainty Paradigm 24

1.3 Conclusions 26

References 27

Exercises 29

2 Integrated Disaster Management 30

2.1 Definition 30

2.2 Integrated Disaster Management Activities 31

2.2.1 Mitigation 31

2.2.2 Preparedness 39

2.2.3 Response 40

2.2.4 Recovery 40

2.3 Disaster Management in Canada—Brief Overview 41

2.3.1 Emergency Management Act 42

2.3.2 National Disaster Mitigation Strategy 42

2.3.3 Joint Emergency Preparedness Program 43

2.3.4 Emergency Response 44

2.3.5 The Role of Federal Government in Disaster Recovery 45

2.4 Decision Making and Integrated Disaster Management 46

2.4.1 Individual Decision Making 47

2.4.2 Decision Making in Organizations 47

2.4.3 Decision Making in Government 47

2.5 Systems View of Integrated Disaster Management 48

References 49

Exercises 50

II Systems Analysis for Integrated Management of Disasters 51

3 Systems Thinking and Integrated Disaster Management 53

3.1 System Definitions 54

3.1.1 What is a System? 55

3.1.2 Systems Thinking 56

3.1.3 Systems Analysis 59

3.1.4 The Systems Approach 60

3.1.5 Systems “Engineering” 60

3.1.6 Feedback 61

3.1.7 Mathematical Modeling 66

3.1.8 A Classification of Systems 68

3.1.9 A Classification of Mathematical Models 70

3.2 Systems View of Integrated Disaster Management 70

3.2.1 A Systems Typology in Integrated Disaster Management 71

3.2.2 Systems View of Disaster Management 73

3.2.3 Systems View of Disaster Management Activities 76

3.3 System Formulation Examples 77

3.3.1 Dynamics of Epidemics 78

3.3.2 Shortest Supply Route 80

3.3.3 Resources Allocation 81

References 82

Exercises 83

4 Introduction to Methods and Tools for a Systems Approach to Management of Disaster 85

4.1 Simulation 85

4.2 System Dynamics Simulation 89

4.3 Optimization 92

4.4 Multiobjective Analysis 95

4.5 Disaster Risk Management 97

4.5.1 Sources of Uncertainty 98

4.5.2 Conceptual Risk Definitions 100

4.5.3 Probabilistic Approach 102

4.5.4 A Fuzzy Set Approach 103

4.6 Computer Support: Decision Support Systems 106

References 109

Exercises 111

III Implementation of Systems Analysis to Management of Disasters 113

5 Simulation 115

5.1 Definitions 115

5.2 System Dynamics Simulation 116

5.2.1 Introduction 116

5.2.2 System Structure and Patterns of Behavior 117

5.3 System Dynamics Simulation Modeling Process 126

5.3.1 Causal Loop Diagram 127

5.3.2 Stock and Flow Diagram 131

5.3.3 Generic Principles of System Dynamics Simulation Modeling 133

5.3.4 Numerical Simulation 137

5.3.5 Policy Design and Evaluation—Model Use 141

5.4 System Dynamics Simulation Modeling Examples 141

5.4.1 A Simple Flu Epidemic Model 142

5.4.2 A More Complex Flu Epidemic Model with Recovery 146

5.5 An Example of Disaster Management Simulation—Flood Evacuation Simulation Model 152

5.5.1 Introduction 152

5.5.2 Human Behavior During Disasters 153

5.5.3 A System Dynamics Simulation Model 154

5.5.4 Application of the Evacuation Model to the Analyses of Flood Emergency Procedures in the Red River Basin, Manitoba, Canada 162

5.5.5 Conclusions 171

References 172

Exercises 172

6 Optimization 175

6.1 Linear Programming 178

6.1.1 Formulation of Linear Optimization Models 178

6.1.2 Algebraic Representations of Linear Optimization Models 182

6.2 The Simplex Method for Solving Linear Programs 186

6.2.1 Completeness of the Simplex Algorithm 190

6.2.2 The Big M Method 193

6.3 Duality in LP 196

6.3.1 Sensitivity Analysis 198

6.4 Special Types of LP Problems—Transportation Problem 202

6.4.1 Formulation of the Transportation Problem 202

6.4.2 Solution of the Transportation Problem 207

6.5 Special Types of LP Problems—Network Problems 213

6.5.1 The Shortest Path Problem 217

6.5.2 The Minimum Spanning Tree Problem 219

6.5.3 The Maximum Flow Problem 223

6.6 An Example of Disaster Management Optimization—The Optimal Placement of Casualty Evacuation Assets 229

6.6.1 Introduction 229

6.6.2 The OPTEVAC Model 230

6.6.3 A Casualty Evacuation Example 231

6.6.4 Summary 234

References 234

Exercises 235

7 Multiobjective Analysis 242

7.1 Introduction 243

7.1.1 Toward Operational Framework for Multiobjective Analysis 243

7.1.2 An Illustrative Example 244

7.2 Multiobjective Analysis Methodology 249

7.2.1 Change of Concept 251

7.2.2 Nondominated Solutions 251

7.2.3 Participation of Decision Makers 254

7.2.4 Classification of Multiobjective Techniques 255

7.2.5 Disaster Management Applications 259

7.3 The Weighting Method 263

7.4 The Compromise Programming Method 268

7.4.1 Compromise Programming 268

7.4.2 Some Practical Recommendations 273

7.4.3 The COMPRO Computer Program 273

7.5 An Example of Disaster Management Multiobjective Analysis—Selection of Flood Management Alternative 274

7.5.1 Preparation of Input Data 274

7.5.2 Solution of Flood Management Problem Using Compromise Programming 275

7.5.3 Summary 279

References 279

Exercises 281

IV Be Prepared 285

8 A View Ahead 287

8.1 Issues in Future Disaster Management 289

8.1.1 Climate Change 289

8.1.2 Population Growth and Migrations 291

8.2 A Systems View 292

References 293

Index 295

"As such, the book emphasises the significant contribution that science and engineering can make in the management of disasters and it is a valuable addition to the disaster management bibliography." (Natural Hazards, 1 April 2012)

SLOBODAN P. SIMONOVIC is a Professor at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and an Engineering Research Chair of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction at the University of Western Ontario. He teaches courses in civil engineering systems, water resources systems, and disaster management. He actively works for national and international professional organizations and has received a number of awards for excellence in teaching, research, and outreach. He has also been invited to present special courses for practicing water and disaster managers in many countries. The ultimate reference on managing disasters by implementing a systems approach

Proper management in the face of a natural or technological disaster necessitates a transformation of attitude toward integration of economic, social, and environmental concerns related to disasters, and of the actions necessary to deal with them. Recent trends in confronting disasters include consideration of the entire region under threat, explicit consideration of all costs and benefits, elaboration of a large number of alternatives to reduce the damages, and the greater participation of all stakeholders in decision-making. Systems approaches based on simulation, optimization, and multi-objective analyses have great potential for providing appropriate support for effective disaster management in this emerging context. This systems approach to managing disasters is the focus of this book, which outlines proven strategies for pooling interdisciplinary resources more efficiently to boost emergency responses. An invaluable reference, Systems Approach to Managing Disasters illustrates how a systems approach to management of disasters can be the difference maker in times of crisis. Systems Approach to Managing Disasters:

• Includes a CD with worked examples and state-of-the-art simulation, optimization, and multi-objective analyses computer programs

• Discusses the methodologies and use of the systems tools vital to solving real disaster management problems

• Directs readers to a companion Web site with additional exercises and solutions as well as applications that can be shared among the users of the book

Organized into four parts covering every aspect of managing disasters, Systems Approach to Managing Disasters draws on the fields of operations research, and economics, to create the skills necessary for solving complex disaster management problems.