20% Chance of Rain

There are plenty of books on specialized risk topics but few that deal with the broad diversity and daily applicability of this subject. Risk applications require a robust knowledge of many attributes of this seemingly simple subject. This book teaches the reader through examples and case studies the fundamental (and subtle) aspects of risk - regardless of the specific situation. The text allows the reader to understand the concept of risk analysis while not getting too involved in the mathematics; in this method the reader can apply these techniques across a wide range of situations.

The second edition includes new examples from NASA and several other industries as well as new case studies from legal databases. The many real-life discussion topics enable the reader to form an understanding of the concepts of risk and risk management and apply them to day-to-day issues.

Preface ix

Acknowledgments xi

1. Risk: Life’s Question Mark 1

2. Measurement: The Alchemist’s Base 15

3. Statistics: Numbers Looking for an Argument 41

4. The Value of Life and Limb, Statistically Speaking 69

5. The Evolution of Risk 93

6. Frequency and Severity: Weighing the Risk 107

7. What’s in a Risk? Perception Creates Risk Reality 128

8. Risk, Regulation, and Reason 151

9. Earth, Air, and Water: The Not-So-Bare Essentials 176

10. Food . . . for Thought 210

11. Flying: The Not-So-Wild Blue Yonder 249

12. Risk on the Roads 278

13. An Incomplete List of Life’s Risks 315

Index 337

Richard B. Jones has spent the past thirty years applying risk analysis and management techniques to industrial and business problems. He is the author of many articles, has presented at numerous conferences, and is the author of two previous books on risk management.

Learn to apply the fundamental aspects of risk—regardless of the situation

We'd all like to eliminate risk from our decision-making, but unfortunately this goal is unachievable. No single across-the-board solution holds the power to tackle all of the surprises life throws at us. As much as we try to avoid them, unfavorable outcomes will inevitably occur. . . sometimes. Yet there are things you can do to help stack the deck in your favor. You don't have to be a statistician or mathematician to become an expert in managing the future's uncertainty. 20% Chance of Rain enables the reader to form a robust understanding of risk that can be applied to decision-making by:

• Teaching the fundamental concepts of risk through the extensive use of practical situations to help the reader apply what is learned to a wide variety of situations
• Providing actual illustrations of risk analysis, risk assessment, and risk management, complementing the rigorous mathematics taught in most risk courses
• Communicating complex risk concepts in a simple, clear, and interesting manner using real-life examples and problems
• Including case studies, from NASA and other industries, providing the basis for additional discussions and allowing the reader to see actual applications of risk-based decision-making

From individuals to businesses to government agencies, risk is the common denominator. Successful strategies for managing the future's uncertainty or risk may seem simple and straightforward on the surface, yet they can be extremely complex and subtle. Understanding the best ways to employ these multi-faceted tactics is critical in the face of the ups and downs that loom behind every choice we make. Life is truly a series of choices and 20% Chance of Rain can help you manage the future's uncertainty in today's dynamic, complex, and shrinking world.