Transportation Planning and the Future

Current trends in transport, particularly the rise in CO_2 emissions, indicate that major changes in technology, public policy and individual behaviour are necessary to make the transport system more compatible with environmental sustainability. What then are the possible futures for sustainable systems of transport? In this book future scenarios are constructed on the basis of the recently developed 'spider model'. This model constructs an evaluation framework - based along spatial, institutional, economic and socio-psychological axes - which visualises the core factors that influence transport systems. These factors can operate either separately or in combination - this interaction creates scenarios which range from market-oriented to regulatory systems, and from individual to collective modes of transport. Drawing on the work of a range of transport analysts, the book suggests that the current trend away from sustainability and collective systems is likely to continue, but when sound policies are introduced, a sustainable transport system becomes a feasible option. SETTING THE SCENE.

Transportation in a Conflicting Force Field.

Transport and the Environment.

Major Trends in European Transport.

ANALYSIS OF NEW TRANSPORT SYSTEMS.

New Transport Systems: Success and Failure Factors.

Innovations in Automobile and Aviation Systems.

The Potential of New Collective Transport Modes.

SCENARIOS FOR SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT SYSTEMS.

Scenarios for Future Sustainable Transport Systems.

The Spider Model for Composing Scenarios.

Expert Views on the Future Transport System.

New Transport Futures Designed by Expert Opinion.

A Segment Analysis of Expert Groups for Transport Scenario Design.

Environmental Impacts: Estimation of CO_2 Emissions.

The Realism of Sustainable Mobility: An Assessment of Policy Options.

References.

Index.

Peter Nijkamp is a Dutch economist, Professor of Regional Economics and Economic Geography at the Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, a fellow of the Tinbergen Institute and President of the Governing Board of the Netherlands Research Council. Sytze A. Rienstra is the author of Transportation Planning and the Future, published by Wiley. Current trends in transport, particularly the rise in CO_2 emissions, indicate that major changes in technology, public policy and individual behaviour are necessary to make the transport system more compatible with environmental sustainability. What then are the possible futures for sustainable systems of transport? In this book future scenarios are constructed on the basis of the recently developed 'spider model'. This model constructs an evaluation framework - based along spatial, institutional, economic and socio-psychological axes - which visualises the core factors that influence transport systems. These factors can operate either separately or in combination - this interaction creates scenarios which range from market-oriented to regulatory systems, and from individual to collective modes of transport. Drawing on the work of a range of transport analysts, the book suggests that the current trend away from sustainability and collective systems is likely to continue, but when sound policies are introduced, a sustainable transport system becomes a feasible option.