Systems Modelling for Energy Policy

Energy is a sector where there has always been a serious modelling tradition, but with the worldwide trend away from planned economies to new market structures, the risk, uncertainties and competitive aspects which need to be incorporated pose new challenges to analyse strategic as well as economic behaviour. Systems Modelling for Energy Policy addresses the strong and apparently countervailing themes dominating energy policy in the current decade:

• concerns about global warming have stimulated an intense and methodologically diverse level of analytical activity aimed ultimately at greater international co-ordination in policy and planning
• simultaneously we are witnessing a worldwide trend away from planned national energy policies to new market structures

To accommodate these shifts in focus, more comprehensive analytical procedures are needed to address technical challenges in handling large models whilst smaller, policy-specific behavioural models may give greater insight to the strategic challenges involved in maintaining focus on key industry restructuring issues for which past data is not available. This volume provides a comprehensive and up-to-date reference to the range of issues and modelling alternatives that a systems perspective gives to the analysis of energy policy. Practitioners, analysts and researchers will find new studies and comparative modelling insights in this book which are not easily accessed elsewhere. Partial table of contents:

Systems Modelling for Energy Policy (D. Bunn & E.Larsen).

The IDEAS Model and Its Use in Developing the US Climate ChangeAction Plan (F. Wood & J. Geinzer).

Benefits from Electricity Trade in Northern Europe under CO2Constraints (T. Larsson).

Application and Limitations of Annual Models for ElectricityCapacity Development (P. Grohnheit).

The Economics of the CO2 Problem: What About the Supply Side?

(J. Blank & W. Strobele).

The Changing Role of Simulation Models: The Case of the PacificNorthwest Electric System (A. Ford).

Complementary Modelling Approaches for Analysing Several Effects ofPrivatization on Electricity Investment (D. Bunn, et al.).

Index.

Derek W. Bunn is currently Professor and Chairman of the Decision Sciences subject area and Director of the Energy Markets Group at the London Business School, having held previous appointments at Oxford and Stanford universities. As a prominent international advisor on energy economics, he has consulted for many global energy companies and advised a number of government agencies. Author of over 150 research papers and 9 books in the areas of forecasting, decision analysis and energy economics, he has also been chief editor of the Journal of Forecasting since 1984. His research and practical involvement with the electricity sector extends back over 25 years experience.

Erik R. Larsen is the editor of Systems Modelling for Energy Policy, published by Wiley.

Energy is a sector where there has always been a serious modelling tradition, but with the worldwide trend away from planned economies to new market structures, the risk, uncertainties and competitive aspects which need to be incorporated pose new challenges to analyse strategic as well as economic behaviour. Systems Modelling for Energy Policy addresses the strong and apparently countervailing themes dominating energy policy in the current decade:

• concerns about global warming have stimulated an intense and methodologically diverse level of analytical activity aimed ultimately at greater international co-ordination in policy and planning
• simultaneously we are witnessing a worldwide trend away from planned national energy policies to new market structures

To accommodate these shifts in focus, more comprehensive analytical procedures are needed to address technical challenges in handling large models whilst smaller, policy-specific behavioural models may give greater insight to the strategic challenges involved in maintaining focus on key industry restructuring issues for which past data is not available. This volume provides a comprehensive and up-to-date reference to the range of issues and modelling alternatives that a systems perspective gives to the analysis of energy policy. Practitioners, analysts and researchers will find new studies and comparative modelling insights in this book which are not easily accessed elsewhere.