Complexity, Risk, and Financial Markets

Patterns in the Dark is that rare book that offers an entirely new perspective on an issue of ongoing concern to investors: the unpredictability of financial markets. In this groundbreaking work, leading investment strategist and authority on chaos theory, Edgar Peters makes accessible ways of understanding market behavior that-until now-were known only to specialists.

Patterns in the Dark draws on a broad range of human knowledge and experience to clarify the behavior of a system that now operates on a global, 24-hour, and thoroughly interconnected basis. Peters illuminates the complex operation of the marketplace by including keen observations drawn from science, mathematics, and artistic creation as well as economics. His models include the social visions of the Austrian economists, Darwinian ideas of evolution, the laws of physics, and the creative risks of the artist. His meditations on financial markets weigh the effects of limitations vs. rules, risks vs. uncertainty, and order vs. chaos.

As a guide to a world marketplace that has become increasingly complex and uncertain, Patterns in the Dark offers the investor a rich source of insight, illumination, and wisdom.Die Komplexitätstheorie besagt, daß Prozesse mit einer großen Anzahl scheinbar unabhängiger Faktoren, wie z.B. freie Märkte, sich spontan zu einem kohärenten System zusammenschließen können. Auf der Grundlage wissenschaftstheoretischer und wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Aspekte demonstriert der Autor, wie sich das Zufallsprinzip und die Ungewißheit der Komplexitätstheorie auf die Finanzmärkte anwenden lassen. Verständlich und spannend geschrieben, bietet dieses Buch einen grundlegenden Einblick, wie freie Märkte funktionieren, indem sie ständig neue komplexe Systeme schaffen. Peters untermauert seine Aussagen mit einer Fülle von praktischen Beispielen. Introduction: Life, Risk, and Uncertainty.

UNCERTAINTY, COMPLEXITY, AND SPONTANEOUS ORGANIZATION.

Imposing Order: Conspiracies and the Mathematics of Ignorance.

Uncertainty, Vagueness, and Ambiguity: The Need for Information.

Complexity and Time: The Dynamics of Uncertainty.

FREE MARKETS AND THE NEED FOR UNCERTAINTY.

Subjectivism: "The Economics of Time and Ignorance."

Diversity and Knowledge.

Crisis and Competition: Creative Destruction in Free Markets.

Economic Evolution: Change in Real Time.

Creativity: Uncertainty, Innovation, and Entrepreneurs.

Rules and Law: Limits in Complexity.

Degrees of Order: Balancing Rules, Freedom, and Uncertainty.

The Need for Uncertainty.

References.

Index. Peters combines a chaos/complex systems framework with the Austrian school of economic thought to explain our lack of market understanding. He develops a strong case that the most pressing problem for investors is not a matter of specific models but of determining how to assess risk in a complex and uncertain world. Peters draws important distinctions between risk, uncertainty, ignorance, vagueness, and ambiguity, and in doing so, shows how the subtle meanings of words can provide immense value in explaining the market environment. He also resurrects the Austrian school's emphasis on subjectivism and makes it come alive within finance. (Financial Analyst's Journal) EDGAR E. PETERS is Chief Investment Strategist and Director of Systematic Asset Allocation for PanAgora Asset Management, a global investment management firm. He is a frequent lecturer on market theory and has taught investment and portfolio management at Babson College, Boston College, and Bentley College. He is the author of Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets and Fractal Market Analysis, as well as numerous articles in professional journals. Praise for complexity, risk, and financial markets

"A fascinating account of one of today's great paradoxes: the irreducible uncertainty that lies at the heart of social and economic order. Ed Peters takes our most cherished beliefs, turns them upside down, and convinces us that they're much better that way."- Ian Stewart, author of Does God Play Dice and columnist for Scientific American

"Is it any wonder why smart traders love volatility, while amateurs shun it? It's because smart traders understand complexity theory. And with the help of Peters' book, you may too!"- Desmond MacRae, The Street.com

"In reading previous contributions to the work of complexity and chaos theory, it's obvious that the forerunners in these fields have been running too fast for the average reader...Peters knows what he is talking about and has done his homework, which makes this a good starting point for gaining insight into an economic paradigm shift bound to take place...[this book] is the real deal about complexity and chaos."- Thomas Stridsman, Futures Magazine

"...Peters always seems to provide compelling insight into how global structure and local randomness interact...the discussions regarding various process models and their implications for economic activity are worth the price of admission alone. Interested investors ought to check it out."- Alex Schay, The Motley Fool.com